BLS: Trump Recession looms, Americans less prepared than before Bush Rcession

[reagansghost]

President Trump was lucky enough to inherit an economy that saw a record string of months with positive job growth and falling unemployment rates.

But the recent jobs report hinted that this rosy period may be coming to an end.


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May saw a slowdown in net new additions to payroll and made downward revisions to earlier numbers released for March and April — clear signs that job growth has slowed. Unemployed workers are finding it increasingly difficult to land new jobs, with the share of unemployed workers on the hunt for more than six months rising. Unemployed women are more likely to drop out of looking for jobs than land a job in the following month.

What if this all signals more than just a one-off drop in job creation? What if, instead, we’re heading towards a downturn in the labor market?

The US economy is more fragile than it has been at this point in any previous economic expansion. Though this expansion only needs one more month to be the longest in U.S. economic history, a record number of households are more than 90 days late on their car loan payments. The sale of existing homes continues to fall to new lows, reflecting the difficulty for younger workers to form new households and transition from renters to homeowners. Their low earnings, low savings and high student debt compared to earlier generations all factor in here.

One oft-cited statistic points to just how unstable the finances of most Americans are: nearly 40 percent of households could not withstand an unexpected expenditure of $400 — the cost of just one medical bill or car repair.

The most unnerving point to keep in mind is that we are even less prepared for a sudden slowing of the economy than we were before the Great Recession of 2008.
That crisis taught us a key lesson: how important “automatic stabilizers” are to the economy. Those stabilizers, like unemployment insurance, pump money into households when the economy loses jobs and provides a floor to falling incomes and the subsequent decline in marketplace demand.

These are “automatic” because they do not require new legislation; when more people are eligible, the increase in expenditures happens automatically. In a Congress where Republicans voted against all economic proposals of President Obama during the recovery from the Great Recession, avoiding partisan gridlock is critical. Yet the unemployment insurance system is far weaker today than it was in 2008.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/job-...-just-27k.html

....opps, there goes Donny's only remaining talking point!

[reagansghost]

1970

This recession was relatively mild, lasting 11 months—from December 1969 to November 1970. GDP was -1.9% in Q4 1969. It was -0.6% in Q1, then rose 0.6% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q3. In Q4, it was -4.2% before rising 11.3% in Q1 1971. Unemployment peaked at 6.1% in December 1970.


1973–1975

This recession lasted 16 months, from November 1973 to March 1975. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is blamed for quadrupling oil prices. But the OPEC oil embargo alone didn't cause such a deep recession. Two other factors contributed.

First, President Nixon instituted wage-price controls. This kept prices too high, reducing demand. Wage controls made salaries too high and forced businesses to lay off workers. Second, Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in response to a run on the gold held at Fort Knox, which led to inflation. The price of gold skyrocketed to $120 an ounce while the dollar's value plummeted.

The result was stagflation and five quarters of negative GDP growth: 1973 Q3, -2.1%; 1974 Q1, -3.4%; Q3, -3.7%; Q4, -1.5%; and 1975 Q1, -4.8%. Unemployment reached a peak of 9% in May 1975, two months after the recession had ended.



1980–1982

The economy suffered a double whammy of two recessions in this period. There was one during the first six months of 1980. The second lasted 16 months, from July 1981 to November 1982.

The Fed caused this recession by raising interest rates to combat inflation. That reduced business spending. The Iranian oil embargo aggravated economic conditions by reducing U.S. oil supplies, which drove up prices.

GDP was negative for six of the 12 quarters. The worst was Q2 1980 at -8.0%. Until the 2008–2009 recession, that was the worst quarterly decline since the Great Depression. Unemployment rose to 10.8% in November and December 1982, the highest level in any modern recession. It was above 10% for 10 months. President Reagan lowered the tax rate and boosted the defense budget, helping to end the recession.
GDP Growth Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1980 1.3% -8.0% -0.5% 7.7%
1981 8.1% -2.9% 4.9% -4.3%
1982 -6.1% 1.8% -1.5% 0.2%


1990–1991

recession ran nine months, from July 1990 to March 1991. The 1989 savings and loan crisis caused it. GDP was -3.6% in Q4 1990 and -1.9% in Q1 1991. Unemployment peaked at 7.8% in June 1992.


2001

The 2001 recession lasted eight months, from March to November. It was caused by a boom and subsequent bust in dot-com businesses. The boom was partially created by the Y2K scare in 2000. Companies bought billions of dollars’ worth of new software because they were afraid the old systems weren't designed to transition from the 1900s to the 2000s. But many dot-com businesses were significantly overvalued and failed.

The 9/11 attack worsened the recession. The economy contracted in two quarters: Q1, -1.1% and Q3, -1.7%. Unemployment continued rising until it peaked at 6.3% in June 2003.


2008–2009

The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis in the United States since the 1929 Depression. It also was the longest-lasting: from December 2007 to June 2009. The subprime mortgage crisis was the trigger. That created a global bank credit crisis in 2007. By 2008, the credit crisis had spread to the general economy through the widespread use of derivatives.

The economy shrank in five quarters, including four quarters in a row. Two quarters contracted more than 5%. In Q4 2008, GDP was -8.4%, worse than any other recession since the Great Depression. The recession ended in Q3 2009, when GDP turned positive, thanks to an economic stimulus package.
Tracking Recessions

The BEA revises its GDP estimates as it receives new data. It often recalibrates its estimates in July of each year. Using the 2008–2009 recession as an example, here are the final estimates compared to the initial estimates made one month after the quarter ended. These numbers demonstrate how difficult it is to correct a recession until it's already started. They also serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to time the market with your investments.

2008

Q1: The economy shrank 2.3%. Initially, the BEA thought it grew 0.6%.
Q2: The economy rebounded 2.1%. The initial release said it grew 1.9%. Everyone thought the Fed's rescue of Bear Stearns ended the threat to financial markets.
Q3: The economy shrank 2.1%, much more than the -0.3% initial estimate.
Q4: The economy collapsed, shrinking 8.4%. The BEA initially said it shrank only 3.8%, which seemed bad enough.

[tsuke]

Wage controls made salaries too high and forced businesses to lay off workers.


.

huh. i did not realize democrats even realized this was a concept.

[reagansghost]

thread too painful for ignorant Trumpbots, sad

[reagansghost]

huh. i did not realize democrats even realized this was a concept.

that makes zero sense ^^

[reagansghost]

notice I didn't ban posters from this thread like pussy boys from SF always do

sign of the times

[Grokmaster]

President Trump was lucky enough to inherit an economy that saw a record string of months with positive job growth and falling unemployment rates.

But the recent jobs report hinted that this rosy period may be coming to an end.


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May saw a slowdown in net new additions to payroll and made downward revisions to earlier numbers released for March and April — clear signs that job growth has slowed. Unemployed workers are finding it increasingly difficult to land new jobs, with the share of unemployed workers on the hunt for more than six months rising. Unemployed women are more likely to drop out of looking for jobs than land a job in the following month.

What if this all signals more than just a one-off drop in job creation? What if, instead, we’re heading towards a downturn in the labor market?

The US economy is more fragile than it has been at this point in any previous economic expansion. Though this expansion only needs one more month to be the longest in U.S. economic history, a record number of households are more than 90 days late on their car loan payments. The sale of existing homes continues to fall to new lows, reflecting the difficulty for younger workers to form new households and transition from renters to homeowners. Their low earnings, low savings and high student debt compared to earlier generations all factor in here.

One oft-cited statistic points to just how unstable the finances of most Americans are: nearly 40 percent of households could not withstand an unexpected expenditure of $400 — the cost of just one medical bill or car repair.

The most unnerving point to keep in mind is that we are even less prepared for a sudden slowing of the economy than we were before the Great Recession of 2008.
That crisis taught us a key lesson: how important “automatic stabilizers” are to the economy. Those stabilizers, like unemployment insurance, pump money into households when the economy loses jobs and provides a floor to falling incomes and the subsequent decline in marketplace demand.

These are “automatic” because they do not require new legislation; when more people are eligible, the increase in expenditures happens automatically. In a Congress where Republicans voted against all economic proposals of President Obama during the recovery from the Great Recession, avoiding partisan gridlock is critical. Yet the unemployment insurance system is far weaker today than it was in 2008.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/job-...-just-27k.html

....opps, there goes Donny's only remaining talking point!

I thought this was Obama's economy? Not when "the sky is falling, huh? Imagine that.


Lucky for us....THE SKY IS FAR FROM FALLING, NO THANKS to the LEFT:


The US Economy CONTINUES TO BOOM record low unemployment , best wage increases SINCE BEFORE OBAMA, and NO DEMOCRAT-FORCED BAD LOANS, TIED to the AMERICAN TAXPAYERS' THROATS (also courtesy of the Dunce-o-Crats at the GSEs ) LOOMING TO CRASH the WORLD's ECONOMY...which is ALL CLEARLY NOT "OBAMA's ECONOMY"...

[reagansghost]

I thought this was Obama's economy? Not when "the sky is falling, huh? Imagine that.

last SIX recessions under GOP presidents?

now you reference Obama's spectacular economy?

yep, you're a teahick

[reagansghost]

oh my...

https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFi...17_May2018.png

[Grokmaster]

last SIX recessions under GOP presidents?

now you reference Obama's spectacular economy?

yep, you're a teahick

Please cite the "last six recesssions" to which you refer...and who was in charge of LEGISLATING when the basis of them began...such as: " DEMOCRAT-FORCED BAD LOANS, TIED to the AMERICAN TAXPAYERS' THROATS (also courtesy of the Dunce-o-Crats at the GSEs ) LOOMING TO CRASH the WORLD's ECONOMY"

[reagansghost]

Please cite the "last six recesssions" to which you refer...

in the OP Grok, ya ignorant slut

[reagansghost]

HOLY COW!!!

Nine of the last 10 recessions our country has endured began with a Republican president in the White House. Only one recession, the shortest one, began under a Democrat.


https://qconline.com/editorials/lett...004f1ddb6.html

[Loving91390]

Pick Bernie and the economy crashes .....

[Truth Detector]

Let me translate this loon's thread premise:

[Grokmaster]

in the OP Grok, ya ignorant slut

Which FAILED TO MENTION the CRA, the allowing of investment houses to trade in mortgage backed securities allowing former adm. officials to immediately enter the industries (such as Wall St.) that they just regulated, and putting the taxpayers ON THE HOOK for this idiocy, through the GSEs...ALL DEMOCRAT ACTIONS.

Stupid fuck; learn to research beyond your SPOONFEEDINGS, IDIOT.


Meanwhile, the SUREST ECONOMIC INDICATOR RETAIL ACTIVITY, shows the US economy STILL BOOMING in 2019...HIGHER than 2018:

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2018 391482 394764 394309 395707 400573 402499 405525 405935 404823 408056 407748 399081
2019 404815 403636 409208 411209 413279




https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/adv44y72.txt

Post some MORE ASININE LEFTIST BULLSHIT, for your fellow FACT-CHALLENGED LEFTIDIOTS as you COLLECTIVLEY PRAY FOR BAD NEWS for AMERICANS: