vote trump for the economy!
US President Donald Trump warned Saturday of a massive market crash if he's not re-elected in 2020.
Economists, investors, business owners, and consumers, meanwhile, worry about an economic downturn from Trump's ongoing trade wars with China and Mexico.
"The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go," he said. "However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT)."
Trump tweet market crashTwitter
The stock market, a close but far from perfect measure for some aspects of the economy's health, are indeed up about 27% since the President's inauguration on January 20, 2017, but those gains have been mired by massive sell offs sparked by trade war fears amid tariff fights with China, Mexico, and other countries.
Leading economists, meanwhile, are warning more trade disputes could unfurl economic gains from even before Trump's election. But even professionals struggle to forecast when — and why — economic recessions occur.
"The trade war has so far offset all benefits of fiscal stimulus and, if continued, may lead to global recession," Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy, said on Thursday.
"If this recession materializes, historians might call it the 'Trump recession' given that it would be largely caused by the trade war initiative."
Read more: Beware a 'Trump recession': JPMorgan unloads on the president's role in erasing a full year of market progress — and lays out a scenario that could save the day
Beyond Wall Street, businesses are worried too. On Thursday, 600 companies sent a joint letter to Trump saying that broader tariffs on China would hurt workers and consumers.
Consumers share their fears too.
A closely-watched gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 97.9 at the beginning of the month from 100 in May, the University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated Friday, compared with expectations for a reading of 99.
"Consumers responded by lowering growth prospects for the national economy, and as a consequence, reduced the expected gains in employment," Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist, said of tariffs.
Saturday's warning is far from the first time Trump has attempted to forecast an economic downturn in the event he loses the presidency.
In August 2018, he told Bloomberg News: "If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see numbers that you wouldn't believe, in reverse."
"There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."
The stock market, a close but far from perfect measure for some aspects of the economy's health, are indeed up about 27% since the President's inauguration on January 20, 2017,
Earl (06-16-2019)
The economy struggled for eight years under Obama yet the stock market boomed because the Fed put monetary policy on steroids. It’s not a great indicator of the economy health’s. And that doesn’t change because Trump is President.
The Fed is still the leading driver of today’s stock market and it has been argued they have over focused on the performance of the stock market at the expense of the economy and are continuing this asset bubble.
Bill (06-15-2019)
I assume this is sarcasm, considering the maniac in chief who appears to have no control over his mental impairments is at the state of being a pathological liar as lies and deranged threats are his only way of communicating. For any rational thinking person, anything this fake president, sicko and criminal against humanity says, believe the exact opposite:
All False statements involving Donald Trump
https://www.politifact.com/personali...yruling/false/
cancel2 2022 (06-16-2019), Earl (06-16-2019)
Earl (06-16-2019)
"There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."
"There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."
From all I read, just the opposite. Tariffs. DEBT ballooning! Inflation (yes it is rising--food alone accounting for a chunk). Spending drops and the market will go UP?
WK1 3/28-/4 _Cases 301k--Dead 18.1k Lethality 2.72%
WK2 4/5-/13 _Cases 555k--Dead 22.1K Lethality 3.9%
WK3 4/20-/21 Cases 774k -Dead 37.2K Lethality 4.8%
WK4 4/22-/29 Cases 1M --Dead 58.8K Lethality 5.9%
WK5 5/1-/8__ Cases 1.3M -Dead 75.7K Lethality 6.1%
WK6 5/9-16__Cases 1.4M --Dead 85.8K Lethality 6.1%
WK7 5/17-24_Cases 1.7M - Dead 97.6K Lethality 5.9%
WK8 5/28 Cases 1.7M - DEAD 101.2K - Same
Earl (06-16-2019)
i'm wondering if the asset bubble isn't simply built in now -
Feds are talking lower rates even though we are at historic lows
Earl (06-16-2019)
Here's a portion of John Mauldin's most recent column in which he's writing to Ray Dalio. He's address the Fed and their actions very well in my opinion.
I get it, people get passionate about the President but it's the actions of the Fed that are huge drivers of the economy and stock market.
"""While you correctly note that quantitative easing and easy money simply boosted asset prices and increased wealth and income inequality, you later argue that we need better-coordinated monetary and fiscal policies. I think monetary policy run amok bears a significant, if not primary, responsibility for the financial disparity (along with crony capitalism, but more on that later…)
Beginning with Greenspan, we have now had 30+ years of ever-looser monetary policy accompanied by lower rates. This created a series of asset bubbles whose demises wreaked economic havoc. Artificially low rates created the housing bubble, exacerbated by regulatory failure and reinforced by a morally bankrupt financial system.
And with the system completely aflame, we asked the arsonist to put out the fire, with very few observers acknowledging the irony. Yes, we did indeed need the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity during the initial crisis. But after that, the Fed kept rates too low for too long, reinforcing the wealth and income disparities and creating new bubbles we will have to deal with in the not-too-distant future.
This wasn’t a “beautiful deleveraging” as you call it. It was the ugly creation of bubbles and misallocation of capital. The Fed shouldn’t have blown these bubbles in the first place.
The simple conceit that 12 men and women sitting around the table can decide the most important price in the world (short-term interest rates) better than the market itself is beginning to wear thin. Keeping rates too low for too long in the current cycle brought massive capital misallocation. It resulted in the financialization of a significant part of the business world, in the US and elsewhere. The rules now reward management, not for generating revenue, but to drive up the price of the share price, thus making their options and stock grants more valuable.
Coordinated monetary policy is the problem, not the solution. And while I have little hope for change in that regard, I have no hope that monetary policy will rescue us from the next crisis.
Further, this financial repression that keeps rates far below their natural level punishes savers and rewards borrowers. This makes it especially hard for those in the lower- and middle-income brackets, not to mention retirees, to earn a return from their savings without having to take unhedged market risk."""
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