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Thread: China's own weaknesses and troubles are lurking behind its trade war

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    Default China's own weaknesses and troubles are lurking behind its trade war

    https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...-its-trade-war
    The Mexican standoff over tariffs and immigration may have been resolved, but the global trading system remains very much in a state of anxiety as China and the United States continue to circle each other in the ring. Finance ministers from the G-20, gathering in Tokyo to prepare for the June 28-29 G-20 summit, expressed alarm at slowing international growth rates, singling out the protracted dispute as one of the primary culprits. No question the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute isn’t helping things, nor is any quick fix likely to be the solution to what could be slower global growth and diminished trade volumes in coming years.

    For decades, the global economic system looked for a second engine of growth, expecting it to come from Europe once the European Union acclimated to its newer members, common currency and deeper integration. A second engine did finally come on line, but it turned out to be a refreshed and retooled China looking to a buoyant future that would help raise all boats. Double-digit Chinese growth electrified the international trading system and set in motion breathtaking changes in the global supply chain while invigorating economies throughout the world, especially among its Asian neighbors.

    It seemed, too, that enhanced Chinese diplomatic ties soon would follow. Chinese leaders seemed as indefatigable as the economy itself, fanning out throughout the world to spread the gospel of high growth and good neighborliness, without any of the busybody questions posed by U.S. and European envoys about values and human rights. Suddenly, a Chinese model was taking shape, one whose course seemed to represent the future — and not just for the Chinese.

    All that is changing. China’s light industries are becoming as obsolete as those of Japan and Korea became in the 1980s and 1990s, while its growth rates no longer top the charts or support what used to be touted as a harmonious society. Political changes, including the abandonment of its clockwork-like presidential succession system, have put to question the evolution and even the direction of China’s political system.

    As growth slows, China’s strategy for contending with the middle-income trap has been to try to gnaw off its civil society limb. It has tightened up a centrally administered political system that threatens to undermine ingenuity and creativity and require it to accumulate technology the old-fashioned way: by stealing it. China has become much more aggressive in its intellectual property rights acquisition, making technology transfer a condition for investment by foreign entities.

    Slower growth, combined with growing financial imbalances have caused housing bubbles in China and misallocation of finances at home and abroad. Those projects abroad — notably the far-reaching (and, perhaps more accurately, far-fetched) “belt and road” initiative — have been met with skepticism among some recipient countries concerned with unsustainable and mounting debt, whose purpose seemed to be to help China manage its financial imbalances. It is not winning China friends or prestige and may yet become the world’s greatest economic boondoggle, a litany of projects the totality of whose purpose remains a mystery. Is it, as many would contend, an effort to corner the market on raw materials? Or is it, combined with growing military expenditures, an effort to dominate the world?

    China’s transgressions, both home and abroad, suggest a country experiencing a growing list of weaknesses and mounting troubles. Yet in the United States, China is seen as nothing short of a colossal, perhaps existential, threat that combines means and intent to subjugate the United States.

    Its size and strength has even evoked, in the opinion of some observers, a new version of “yellow peril.” Indeed, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning chief, Kiron Skinner, recently spoke of the challenge for the United States of dealing with a great-power rival that is not Caucasian. Whether that comment is irreverent, or just plain irrelevant, it suggests a U.S. administration wholly ill-equipped, and perhaps ill-staffed, to deal with the problem.

    In fact, China’s complexity argues for a nuanced approach from the United States, one that understands the social and political dynamics within China, responds with resolve and consistency, and looks to other partners and allies to forge common approaches to the issues posed by China’s aggressiveness — a particular weakness in the current administration’s approach. But it also argues to find areas of common interests and should look to find patterns of cooperation with Beijing.

    The Trump administration appears to have settled on a strategy of vigorously challenging China’s assertiveness and it is finding that, of all its foreign policies, this one is encountering the least domestic opposition. China’s detractors, right and left, are emboldened, while those advocating more engagement are exhausted. But rather than just play the victim in the ongoing trade dispute with the United States, the Chinese might want to address the problem as more structural in its relations with the U.S.

    It is not just President Trump and his tariff hammer the Chinese authorities need to look at. They might consider taking a harder look at themselves.

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    1. According to CNBC, one in five U.S. companies claims that Chinese companies have stolen their intellectual property within the past year. Moreover, close to a third of the firms said that Chinese companies have stolen their intellectual property over the past decade. The remaining 70 percent of companies did not know if their intellectual property had been stolen. A representative from the IP Commission told CNBC that this theft costs the U.S. economy up to $600 billion every year.

    2. The South China Morning Post reports that profits of state firms are hitting record highs as the number of entities under government control have decreased. This is likely because state-owned enterprises are heavily subsidized and enjoy implicit government guarantees for debts and inexpensive loans, according to Reuters. The Chinese government’s “Made in China 2025” plan specifically outlines $300 billion in financing and other incentives for 10 critical industries.

    3. A major point of contention in U.S-China trade talks is the practice of “technology transfer,” in which the Chinese government forces U.S. companies to turn over their tech secrets to Chinese partners as a condition of gaining access to the country’s enormous market. In May, the European Chamber of Commerce released a report highlighting that one in five companies felt forced to reveal their tech secrets, a 10 percent increase since 2017. The report also showed that certain industries felt more acute pressure to do so, including 30 percent of petroleum companies, 28 percent of medical device companies polled, and 27 percent of pharmaceutical companies.

    4. Right now there is a heated race to pioneer 5G, or fifth-generation mobile networks, and China has the leading edge. Bloomberg Government reports that 5G could ultimately be up to 100 times faster than 4G, dramatically changing how the internet is used. If China has the lead in developing this technology, the U.S. fears the equipment and software it develops could be maliciously used to spy on customers in foreign countries.

    5. According to the Economic Policy Institute, 3.4 million U.S. jobs were lost between 2001 and 2017 because of the U.S. trade deficit with China. This includes 1.3 million jobs lost between 2008, the start of the Great Recession, and 2017. The report further shows that every single congressional district has lost jobs, with California, Texas, and New York being the hardest-hit states.



    https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2019/06/14/five_facts_the_us-china_trade_war__111218.html

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    ^ TY

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    That stealing of technology is a bit of a misnomer, American companies surrender their technology to the Chinese inorder to gain access to the Chinesse markets, it is voluntary, those companies have the option and have decided to give away their intellectual property

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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...-its-trade-war
    The Mexican standoff over tariffs and immigration may have been resolved, but the global trading system remains very much in a state of anxiety as China and the United States continue to circle each other in the ring. Finance ministers from the G-20, gathering in Tokyo to prepare for the June 28-29 G-20 summit, expressed alarm at slowing international growth rates, singling out the protracted dispute as one of the primary culprits. No question the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute isn’t helping things, nor is any quick fix likely to be the solution to what could be slower global growth and diminished trade volumes in coming years.

    For decades, the global economic system looked for a second engine of growth, expecting it to come from Europe once the European Union acclimated to its newer members, common currency and deeper integration. A second engine did finally come on line, but it turned out to be a refreshed and retooled China looking to a buoyant future that would help raise all boats. Double-digit Chinese growth electrified the international trading system and set in motion breathtaking changes in the global supply chain while invigorating economies throughout the world, especially among its Asian neighbors.

    It seemed, too, that enhanced Chinese diplomatic ties soon would follow. Chinese leaders seemed as indefatigable as the economy itself, fanning out throughout the world to spread the gospel of high growth and good neighborliness, without any of the busybody questions posed by U.S. and European envoys about values and human rights. Suddenly, a Chinese model was taking shape, one whose course seemed to represent the future — and not just for the Chinese.

    All that is changing. China’s light industries are becoming as obsolete as those of Japan and Korea became in the 1980s and 1990s, while its growth rates no longer top the charts or support what used to be touted as a harmonious society. Political changes, including the abandonment of its clockwork-like presidential succession system, have put to question the evolution and even the direction of China’s political system.

    As growth slows, China’s strategy for contending with the middle-income trap has been to try to gnaw off its civil society limb. It has tightened up a centrally administered political system that threatens to undermine ingenuity and creativity and require it to accumulate technology the old-fashioned way: by stealing it. China has become much more aggressive in its intellectual property rights acquisition, making technology transfer a condition for investment by foreign entities.

    Slower growth, combined with growing financial imbalances have caused housing bubbles in China and misallocation of finances at home and abroad. Those projects abroad — notably the far-reaching (and, perhaps more accurately, far-fetched) “belt and road” initiative — have been met with skepticism among some recipient countries concerned with unsustainable and mounting debt, whose purpose seemed to be to help China manage its financial imbalances. It is not winning China friends or prestige and may yet become the world’s greatest economic boondoggle, a litany of projects the totality of whose purpose remains a mystery. Is it, as many would contend, an effort to corner the market on raw materials? Or is it, combined with growing military expenditures, an effort to dominate the world?

    China’s transgressions, both home and abroad, suggest a country experiencing a growing list of weaknesses and mounting troubles. Yet in the United States, China is seen as nothing short of a colossal, perhaps existential, threat that combines means and intent to subjugate the United States.

    Its size and strength has even evoked, in the opinion of some observers, a new version of “yellow peril.” Indeed, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning chief, Kiron Skinner, recently spoke of the challenge for the United States of dealing with a great-power rival that is not Caucasian. Whether that comment is irreverent, or just plain irrelevant, it suggests a U.S. administration wholly ill-equipped, and perhaps ill-staffed, to deal with the problem.

    In fact, China’s complexity argues for a nuanced approach from the United States, one that understands the social and political dynamics within China, responds with resolve and consistency, and looks to other partners and allies to forge common approaches to the issues posed by China’s aggressiveness — a particular weakness in the current administration’s approach. But it also argues to find areas of common interests and should look to find patterns of cooperation with Beijing.

    The Trump administration appears to have settled on a strategy of vigorously challenging China’s assertiveness and it is finding that, of all its foreign policies, this one is encountering the least domestic opposition. China’s detractors, right and left, are emboldened, while those advocating more engagement are exhausted. But rather than just play the victim in the ongoing trade dispute with the United States, the Chinese might want to address the problem as more structural in its relations with the U.S.

    It is not just President Trump and his tariff hammer the Chinese authorities need to look at. They might consider taking a harder look at themselves.
    And, when we say "themselves", keep in mind that Xi considers himself (translated) as the "Ruler Under Heaven".

    Remember this from a year ago, 4/18?

    'The Coming Collapse of China' author Gordon Chang tells Maria Bartiromo on 'Sunday Morning Futures' that Trump is making the right moves when it comes to trade and China
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...r_decades.html






    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...r_decades.html
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    That stealing of technology is a bit of a misnomer, American companies surrender their technology to the Chinese inorder to gain access to the Chinesse markets, it is voluntary, those companies have the option and have decided to give away their intellectual property
    I think it is pretty well known now but that wasn't always the case.. I have read of many companies that didn't realize it until it was to late....

    & you are correct, if they know going in that they are going to use & dump, you better make your money up front.....

    Why aren't American companies doing the same??
    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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    Additionally the tRump and mob turd is in the midst of this global emergency at the fake president and maniac and thug tRump being a national and global emergency.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    That stealing of technology is a bit of a misnomer, American companies surrender their technology to the Chinese inorder to gain access to the Chinesse markets, it is voluntary, those companies have the option and have decided to give away their intellectual property
    NO>
    Chinese are master hackers. You are talking about sharing tech for joint ventures in China -only a small part of the theft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    I think it is pretty well known now but that wasn't always the case.. I have read of many companies that didn't realize it until it was to late....

    & you are correct, if they know going in that they are going to use & dump, you better make your money up front.....

    Why aren't American companies doing the same??
    because we follow WTO protocols??
    Which are a joke.. we need a separate bi-lateral agreement
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    Quote Originally Posted by anatta View Post
    because we follow WTO protocols??
    Which are a joke.. we need a separate bi-lateral agreement
    Why, the same things we want aren't the same things they want in Europe etc??

    We need a united front against China, attacking our allies wasn't the best way to start a war.. Now we are fighting everyone on multiple fronts..... Not a very good strategy IMHO..
    "There is no question former President Trump bears moral responsibility. His supporters stormed the Capitol because of the unhinged falsehoods he shouted into the world’s largest megaphone," McConnell wrote. "His behavior during and after the chaos was also unconscionable, from attacking Vice President Mike Pence during the riot to praising the criminals after it ended."



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