Let's talk about polls

[Legion]

People lie, and pollsters know they lie



People don’t tell the truth to pollsters, and often report that they have voted in the past when records reveal that they haven’t.

We recently surveyed 8,567 registered voters using state voter files, and asked each respondent to describe his or her voting behavior in detail.

We then compared each person’s survey response to his or her public voting history, measuring how often people say they vote, versus how often they actually vote.

The survey results were stunning: 78.1 percent of the poll’s respondents over-reported their actual voting histories.

Voting respondents fell into three main groups: those who vote in every election, those who vote only in presidential and midterm elections, and those who vote only in presidential elections. In each of these three categories, a majority of respondents over-reported their actual voting histories. Only among people who said they “never vote” did we find a majority of respondents telling the truth.

These findings highlight a particularly strong “social desirability bias” with respect to voting habits: survey respondents answer in a way they think will be viewed favorably by others, rather than simply answering truthfully.

While pollsters have known about (and tried to control for) this phenomenon for some time, this new study reflects just how pervasive this problem is throughout the electorate.

If the overwhelming majority (nearly 80 percent) of registered voters are over-reporting their past voting habits, even larger numbers of voters could be over-reporting their intent to vote in upcoming elections.

Not only can people lie about whether they vote or not, they can also lie about who they voted for - and there's no way to check.




https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/voters-are-lying-to-us-here-s-why-it-could-be-helpful

[Legion]

Sometimes people answer survey questions dishonestly. One reason this happens is because respondents hold “socially undesirable” opinions about a topic.

A devout Muslim who opposes same-sex marriage, for example, may feel social pressure to hold the opposite viewpoint or risks the consequences of being called a homophobe.

In short, social pressure can cause survey respondents to give an answer that doesn’t match their true feelings.

Not only do people under-report socially undesirable beliefs, but also they over-report behaviors that are socially desirable.

Research has shown that respondents understate alcohol and drug use, tax evasion and racial bias; they may also overstate church/mosque/synagogue/temple attendance, charitable contributions, and the likelihood that they will vote in an election.

A 2014 survey conducted on behalf of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) supports this conclusion.

Their study is worth reviewing because of how it was conducted.

PRRI asked “identical questions about religious attendance, affiliation, salience and belief in God on two surveys – one via telephone and the other online – and compared the results.”

Americans reported being "more religious" in the telephone sample compared with the online sample.

36 percent of Americans reported attending religious services “weekly or more” over the telephone, compared with 31 percent on the online survey.

Likewise, 30 percent of telephone respondents and 43 percent of online survey respondents said they attend religious services “seldom” or “never.”

Honesty in surveys increases when privacy is maximized.

Besides assuring a respondent anonymity, how a survey is administered is the key factor.

A respondent who is interviewed in person with the questions and answers spoken aloud in a public place, for example, has minimal privacy. Conversely, a respondent who can read and answer survey questions online has maximum privacy.

People are easier to reach on the phone versus over the Internet. If personal characteristics affecting response rates are correlated with opinions, we can expect to find different results due to selection bias.


https://www.wral.com/do-people-lie-to-pollsters-/13682865/

[Legion]

I keep hearing Trumpovites claiming that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in play but the data I see says otherwise...Is this just wishful thinking as a Trumpovite or do you have data to back it up?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../michigan/#now http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...nsylvania/#now http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...wisconsin/#now

Polls.

[Mason Michaels]

The silence is deafening

[Legion]

The silence is deafening

Liberals are still touting polls.

[TOP]

Liberals are still touting polls.

Here, too

[Mason Michaels]

Polls this early are worthless.

[Legion]

Polls this early are worthless.

All polls are worthless unless there's a means of validating the responses. There isn't.

[Mott the Hoople]

The best poll i've ever seen is that 100% of people who were polled agreed that all internet trolls should be exterminated.

[Legion]

The best poll i've ever seen is that 100% of people who were polled agreed that all internet trolls should be exterminated.

Anyone dumb enough to post in one of your threads deserves being banned.

[Legion]

Polls are fake news and no more reliable than surveys predicting Hillary Clinton would be elected president in 2016.

“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” said Chris Kofinis, a DEMOCRAT pollster. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448447-landslide-polls-spark-angst-these-geniuses-saw-clinton-as-unstoppable

[Legion]

[Legion]

[Bobb]

Dems hate women. Even a faggot is doing better than the female candidates.

[Mason Michaels]

Dems hate women. Even a faggot is doing better than the female candidates.

I didn't know you were running