Earl (05-28-2019), Stretch (05-27-2019), Truth Detector (05-28-2019)
Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."
The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.
Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."
"Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."
https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html
Earl (05-28-2019), Stretch (05-27-2019), Truth Detector (05-28-2019)
If Democrats can't beat Trump, they need to start re-evaluating their Platform.
katzgar (05-27-2019), signalmankenneth (05-28-2019), StoneByStone (05-27-2019)
Not at all, running as an incumbent works in his favor, other than HW Bush who was the last one to lose, plus the fact that whole election will come down to three or four states, and after what we witnessed in 2016, who knows who and how others will be aiding Trump in those three or four states
Currently, too far out to predict, year and half is a long time in politics
Phantasmal (05-27-2019)
Earl (05-28-2019)
Phantasmal (05-27-2019)
Earl (05-28-2019)
There is no mystery here. If the economy remains great and we are not in any severe military conflict, there is no way Trump cannot get re-elected.
Qho can stop him ? People like prosperity and are fed up with democrat childish antics.
"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." Joseph Stalin
The USA has lost WWIV to China with no other weapons but China Virus and some cash to buy democrats.
Earl (05-28-2019), Truth Detector (05-28-2019)
Earl (05-28-2019), Truth Detector (05-28-2019)
Earl (05-28-2019)
Rattner:
"When the 2016 election rolled round, a surprising result emerged. According to the model, Donald Trump should have received 54.1 percent of the vote; in actuality he received 48.8 percent.
In its present state, the economy will also be helpful to the president. All told, Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent. But that’s before factoring in his personality. As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly eight percentage points."
Oops!
christiefan915 (05-28-2019)
Earl (05-28-2019), MAGA MAN (05-28-2019), Truth Detector (05-28-2019)
no models for Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pa. Trump looks like he's got Ohio.
It's all about turnout now
Earl (05-28-2019)
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