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Thread: 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020

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    Default 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020

    Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trumpís Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors ó but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moodyís Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."


    https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html

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    If Democrats can't beat Trump, they need to start re-evaluating their Platform.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    If Democrats can't beat Trump, they need to start re-evaluating their Platform.
    Not at all, running as an incumbent works in his favor, other than HW Bush who was the last one to lose, plus the fact that whole election will come down to three or four states, and after what we witnessed in 2016, who knows who and how others will be aiding Trump in those three or four states

    Currently, too far out to predict, year and half is a long time in politics

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    Quote Originally Posted by archives View Post
    Not at all, running as an incumbent works in his favor, other than HW Bush who was the last one to lose, plus the fact that whole election will come down to three or four states, and after what we witnessed in 2016, who knows who and how others will be aiding Trump in those three or four states

    Currently, too far out to predict, year and half is a long time in politics
    (shaking head) With picks like Uncle Ben for Housing, I don't know how much clearer 'incompetence' goes.
    (any idea when we'll be invading Iran?)

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    Quote Originally Posted by volsrock View Post
    Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."


    https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html
    Donald Trump will be headed to jail by December 2020! LOL!

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    There is no mystery here. If the economy remains great and we are not in any severe military conflict, there is no way Trump cannot get re-elected.
    Consider the Oyster.

    C-4 is just angry playdoh.

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    Qho can stop him ? People like prosperity and are fed up with democrat childish antics.
    ERIC CIARAMELLA whose name may not be spoken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    (shaking head) With picks like Uncle Ben for Housing, I don't know how much clearer 'incompetence' goes.
    (any idea when we'll be invading Iran?)
    How many Americans know or care about the Secretary of HUD?

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    Quote Originally Posted by volsrock View Post
    Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."


    https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html
    Most presidential election models are based on data (economy, approval rating, etc.) not available this early.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adolf_Twitler View Post
    Donald Trump will be headed to jail by December 2020! LOL!
    This is America. The establishment oligarchs don't go to jail.

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    Quote Originally Posted by volsrock View Post
    Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."


    https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html
    Pretty funny piece. It makes claims about a trump win, but then goes on to show the flaws in the claim, and leaves the reader doubting that trump will win.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    There is no mystery here. If the economy remains great and we are not in any severe military conflict, there is no way Trump cannot get re-elected.
    Disagree. The economy isn't great, and trump is trying to start a war because they typically favor the incumbent.
    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by volsrock View Post
    Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."


    https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-pre...b7828afa5.html
    Rattner:

    "When the 2016 election rolled round, a surprising result emerged. According to the model, Donald Trump should have received 54.1 percent of the vote; in actuality he received 48.8 percent.

    In its present state, the economy will also be helpful to the president. All told, Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent. But that’s before factoring in his personality. As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly eight percentage points."

    Oops!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adolf_Twitler View Post
    Donald Trump will be headed to jail by December 2020! LOL!
    Have you ever been right about anything?
    .

    80,000 Americans died and 900,000 were hospitalised just two years ago from flu including the most virulent Type A version of H3N2, so why didn't you arseholes call for the total destruction of the world's economic system then? I hope you have plenty of time to ponder over that when you all lose your houses, jobs and relationships!

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    no models for Michigan, Wisconsin or even Pa. Trump looks like he's got Ohio.
    It's all about turnout now

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