Members banned from this thread: Cypress, evince, Nomad, CharacterAssassin, ThatOwlWoman, Jade Dragon, Oneuli and Poor Richard Saunders


Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: Climate models have been predicting too much warming

  1. #1 | Top
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    108,120
    Thanks
    60,501
    Thanked 35,051 Times in 26,519 Posts
    Groans
    47,393
    Groaned 4,742 Times in 4,521 Posts
    Blog Entries
    61

    Default Climate models have been predicting too much warming

    Nothing new there to those that follow such things, CMIP5 models are all running too hot, apart from one Russian model, and I very much doubt if CMIP6 will be any better.


    Leading scientist warns that computer simulations are unreliable


    A leading climatologist has said that the computer simulations that are used to predict global warming are failing on a key measure of the climate today, and cannot be trusted.

    Speaking to a meeting in the Palace of Westminster in London, Professor John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told MPs and peers that almost all climate models have predicted rapid warming at high altitudes in the tropics:

    “They all have rapid warming above 30,000 feet in the tropics – it’s effectively a diagnostic signal of greenhouse warming. But in reality it’s just not happening. It’s warming up there, but at only about one third of the rate predicted by the models.”

    A similar discrepancy between empirical measurements and computer predictions has been confirmed at the global level:

    “The global warming trend for the last 40 years, starting in 1979 when satellite measurements began, is +0.13C per decade or about half of what climate models predicted.”

    And Dr Christy says that lessons are not being learned:

    “An early look at some of the latest generation of climate models reveals they are predicting even faster warming. This is simply not credible.”

    A paper outlining Dr Christy’s key findings is published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

    https://www.thegwpf.org/climate-mode...-much-warming/

    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uplo...Parliament.pdf
    Last edited by cancel2 2022; 05-24-2019 at 05:24 AM.

  2. #2 | Top
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    108,120
    Thanks
    60,501
    Thanked 35,051 Times in 26,519 Posts
    Groans
    47,393
    Groaned 4,742 Times in 4,521 Posts
    Blog Entries
    61

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Havana Moon View Post
    Nothing new there to those that follow such things, CMIP5 models are all running too hot, apart from one Russian model, and I very much doubt if CMIP6 will be any better.


    Leading scientist warns that computer simulations are unreliable


    A leading climatologist has said that the computer simulations that are used to predict global warming are failing on a key measure of the climate today, and cannot be trusted.

    Speaking to a meeting in the Palace of Westminster in London, Professor John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told MPs and peers that almost all climate models have predicted rapid warming at high altitudes in the tropics:

    “They all have rapid warming above 30,000 feet in the tropics – it’s effectively a diagnostic signal of greenhouse warming. But in reality it’s just not happening. It’s warming up there, but at only about one third of the rate predicted by the models.”

    A similar discrepancy between empirical measurements and computer predictions has been confirmed at the global level:

    “The global warming trend for the last 40 years, starting in 1979 when satellite measurements began, is +0.13C per decade or about half of what climate models predicted.”

    And Dr Christy says that lessons are not being learned:

    “An early look at some of the latest generation of climate models reveals they are predicting even faster warming. This is simply not credible.”

    A paper outlining Dr Christy’s key findings is published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

    https://www.thegwpf.org/climate-mode...-much-warming/

    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uplo...Parliament.pdf
    The divergence is rooted in the extreme difficulty of distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic warming. It is unavoidably inherent in CMIP5 models for a very basic reason.

    To properly ensure that essential climate features like convection cells (thunderstorms) are modelled correctly, a grid cell needs to be less than 4km on a side. The finest resolution in CMIP5 is 110km at the equator; the typical resolution is more likely to be 280km. This is because halving grid size requires an order of magnitude more computation. So adequately simulating such atmospheric processes from first principles is computationally impossible. Other factors are the failure to adequately take into account the effect of cosmic rays on cloud nucleation. This is likely to become substantially more important as we enter into a solar minimum.

    modsvsobs_thumb.jpg
    Last edited by cancel2 2022; 05-25-2019 at 05:07 AM.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to cancel2 2022 For This Post:

    Stretch (05-26-2019)

  4. #3 | Top
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    108,120
    Thanks
    60,501
    Thanked 35,051 Times in 26,519 Posts
    Groans
    47,393
    Groaned 4,742 Times in 4,521 Posts
    Blog Entries
    61

    Default

    .

  5. #4 | Top
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    land-locked in Ocala,FL
    Posts
    27,321
    Thanks
    30,862
    Thanked 16,758 Times in 11,557 Posts
    Groans
    1,063
    Groaned 889 Times in 847 Posts

    Default

    Gonna get on to those links later. Thanks. Got to get back to work right now.
    By the way, a little TOO much warming here today in Ocala....96 and rising to 99 by 4p.m.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



  6. #5 | Top
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    108,120
    Thanks
    60,501
    Thanked 35,051 Times in 26,519 Posts
    Groans
    47,393
    Groaned 4,742 Times in 4,521 Posts
    Blog Entries
    61

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stretch View Post
    Gonna get on to those links later. Thanks. Got to get back to work right now.
    By the way, a little TOO much warming here today in Ocala....96 and rising to 99 by 4p.m.
    Yes do that and tell me what you think.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to cancel2 2022 For This Post:

    Stretch (05-26-2019)

  8. #6 | Top
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    108,120
    Thanks
    60,501
    Thanked 35,051 Times in 26,519 Posts
    Groans
    47,393
    Groaned 4,742 Times in 4,521 Posts
    Blog Entries
    61

    Default

    Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: Climate Scientists’ “Apocalyptic Predictions Depend On Unrealistic Climate Model Simulations”

    Dutch investigative journalist Marijn Poels recently interviewed leading climatologist Dr. Judith Curry, see following video:



    https://notrickszone.com/2019/05/24/...l-simulations/

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to cancel2 2022 For This Post:

    Stretch (05-26-2019)

  10. #7 | Top
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    land-locked in Ocala,FL
    Posts
    27,321
    Thanks
    30,862
    Thanked 16,758 Times in 11,557 Posts
    Groans
    1,063
    Groaned 889 Times in 847 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Havana Moon View Post
    Yes do that and tell me what you think.
    Finally home now...I always take Sundays off, so I'll start catching up with my looking at all this now.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



  11. #8 | Top
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    land-locked in Ocala,FL
    Posts
    27,321
    Thanks
    30,862
    Thanked 16,758 Times in 11,557 Posts
    Groans
    1,063
    Groaned 889 Times in 847 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Havana Moon View Post
    Nothing new there to those that follow such things, CMIP5 models are all running too hot, apart from one Russian model, and I very much doubt if CMIP6 will be any better.


    Leading scientist warns that computer simulations are unreliable


    A leading climatologist has said that the computer simulations that are used to predict global warming are failing on a key measure of the climate today, and cannot be trusted.

    Speaking to a meeting in the Palace of Westminster in London, Professor John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told MPs and peers that almost all climate models have predicted rapid warming at high altitudes in the tropics:

    “They all have rapid warming above 30,000 feet in the tropics – it’s effectively a diagnostic signal of greenhouse warming. But in reality it’s just not happening. It’s warming up there, but at only about one third of the rate predicted by the models.”

    A similar discrepancy between empirical measurements and computer predictions has been confirmed at the global level:

    “The global warming trend for the last 40 years, starting in 1979 when satellite measurements began, is +0.13C per decade or about half of what climate models predicted.”

    And Dr Christy says that lessons are not being learned:

    “An early look at some of the latest generation of climate models reveals they are predicting even faster warming. This is simply not credible.”

    A paper outlining Dr Christy’s key findings is published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

    https://www.thegwpf.org/climate-mode...-much-warming/

    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uplo...Parliament.pdf
    OK. Read it all. I'll leave the numbers and calculations up to you.
    Made some notes along the way and my takeaway from this is:
    Climate models do not equal what is happening in reality...
    It all balances out and...
    That tiny bit of extra carbon dioxide compared to what our entire solar system
    and God's "natural order of things" is just a spit in the ocean.
    The way I see it, is that politicians grabbed hold to the least effective variable
    in relating to our overall climate and ran with it. Carbon dioxide sounded to
    them like words describing an actual "thing" that would be familiar to most people.
    That "thing" could be more easily misinterpreted and manipulated to sell in a bottle
    to the masses. And man oh man have they sold it!

    Think about it. How would they sell heat flux, evaporation, surface radiation loss,
    downward atmospheric radiation and solar radiation? How would they blame man for any
    of those?
    WE'VE GOT TO REDUCE DOWNWARD ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION!!!! Doesn't exactly roll off
    the tongue in a campaign, does it? Or sell a Prius?

    I loved the volcano references. The effect of the volcano sending all those particles
    up into the atmosphere, reflect the sun and produce cooling. Brilliant!

    "Heat escapes to space up an air column through the atmosphere.In the climate models,
    if you warm that air column by 1◦C, only 1.4 W/m2escapes to space.My colleague Roy Spencer
    has estimated that the figure in the real world is around 2.6 W/m2. In other words,
    whenever there’s a blip of warming, the models are trapping too much heat,allowing
    it to accumulate over time rather than escape to space, as happens in the real world."

    "So the rate of accumulation of joules of energy in the tropical troposphere is significantly
    less than predicted by the CMIP5 climate models. Will the next IPCC report discuss this
    long-running mismatch?

    There are three possible ways they could handle the problem:
    1) The observations are wrong, the models are right.
    2) The forcings used in the models were wrong.
    3) The models are failed hypotheses.
    I predict that the ‘failed hypothesis’ option will not be chosen. Unfortunately, that’s
    exactly what you should do when you follow the scientific method."

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of
    the United Nations was begun by the late Bert Bolin. He was supposed to have accepted the IPCC's
    Nobel Prize along with Al Gore, but was to ill at the time.
    And, they're both wrong.
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



  12. #9 | Top
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Location
    land-locked in Ocala,FL
    Posts
    27,321
    Thanks
    30,862
    Thanked 16,758 Times in 11,557 Posts
    Groans
    1,063
    Groaned 889 Times in 847 Posts

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Havana Moon View Post
    Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: Climate Scientists’ “Apocalyptic Predictions Depend On Unrealistic Climate Model Simulations”

    Dutch investigative journalist Marijn Poels recently interviewed leading climatologist Dr. Judith Curry, see following video:



    https://notrickszone.com/2019/05/24/...l-simulations/
    Wow. I'll be hanging on to this video to show to others. Curry is so spot on.
    So much of what she said is the sort of thing I learned back in college when I
    took classes in meteorology and geology for only a year. People do neglect the
    natural variations and the part that volcanic activity below the surface play,
    especially in the polar ice caps. It's not ALL about the atmosphere.
    Yes, 'group think' is rampant.

    "They've abandoned science for careerism."
    Abortion rights dogma can obscure human reason & harden the human heart so much that the same person who feels
    empathy for animal suffering can lack compassion for unborn children who experience lethal violence and excruciating
    pain in abortion.

    Unborn animals are protected in their nesting places, humans are not. To abort something is to end something
    which has begun. To abort life is to end it.



  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Stretch For This Post:

    cancel2 2022 (05-26-2019)

Similar Threads

  1. UN has been predicting Climate Catastrophe for three decades
    By cancel2 2022 in forum Current Events Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-04-2019, 10:00 AM
  2. Climate models are next to useless
    By cancel2 2022 in forum Current Events Forum
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 08-31-2017, 02:48 AM
  3. Why models can’t predict climate accurately
    By cancel2 2022 in forum Current Events Forum
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 04-03-2014, 12:18 PM
  4. APP - Climate models go cold, carbon warming too minor to be worth worrying about
    By cancel2 2022 in forum Above Plain Politics Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-12-2011, 04:21 PM
  5. climate models unreliable
    By tinfoil in forum Current Events Forum
    Replies: 35
    Last Post: 12-14-2007, 09:31 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Rules

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •