No Longer a Trade Tiff: China Screams ‘People’s War’

[anatta]

"People’s war.”
that’s the Communist Party’s new term for the trade dispute with the United States.

The Global Times, the party’s nationalist tabloid, used that phrase on the May 13, but China’s leaders obviously approved of the rhetorical escalation. Both People’s Daily, the self-described “mouthpiece” of China’s ruling organization, and the official Xinhua News Agency carried the piece to wider audiences.

There seems to be a mismatch in perceptions. President Donald Trump, in comments to reporters on Tuesday, characterized the trade disagreement this way: “We’re having a little squabble with China.”

Trump was calming jittery markets. The party, on the other hand, was inflaming passions. The stoking of emotions—“people’s war” suggests America is an enemy of all Chinese—suggests a trade agreement between the planet’s two largest economies is not in the cards anytime soon.

For months, market participants outside China, buying into the persistent cheerleading of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, assumed the two giants would reach a trade pact this spring. Most observers ignored, among other things, internal Chinese factors pushing Beijing away from agreement with the United States.

Outside China’s tight political circles, there is no consensus as to what these factors are, but there are unmistakable signs of either disunity or dysfunction, in either case something wrong at the heart of China’s political system.

If there were nothing wrong, then China would not have at the last minute withdrawn commitments it made to lead negotiators Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

As is now known, the Chinese team on the May 3 returned to the United States the draft 150-page trade agreement without including concessions that Vice Premier Liu He, the head of the Chinese team, had previously extended.

Beijing has since denied it had retracted the commitments, but this contention does not stand up. If nothing else, then something the Chinese did obviously riled Trump, who throughout the months-long negotiations promoted the appearance of progress. After China’s return of the draft trade deal, Trump publicly complained of Chinese attempts to “renegotiate,” starting with his much-discussed May 5 tweet.

Some people think Liu’s sudden across-the-board withdrawal of commitments is a sign of ruler Xi Jinping’s basic strength. The Wall Street Journal reported that he withdrew the commitments because he thought he could press the advantage. The Chinese leader interpreted President Trump’s “hectoring” of the Federal Reserve as an indication the U.S. economy was “more fragile” than he publicly “claimed.”

This reporting does not seem credible. For one thing, the U.S. economy looks vibrant. Moreover, this theory assumes Xi wanted a deal. Yet the Chinese leader had to know that pulling the commitment at a late moment would infuriate both Trump and Lighthizer and delegitimize the China-friendly Mnuchin, making unattainable any advantage he might hope to get with the bold maneuver.

In fact, Xi’s withdrawal of commitments led to Trump’s public complaint of Chinese renegotiation. He also flouted a far worse deal for China in the form of the additional American tariffs Trump signaled in his May 5 tweet.

[anatta]

More probably, the withdrawal of the commitments shows that Xi is politically weak. According to this view, he had agreed to the commitments Liu made to the Americans and withdrew them when others objected to the deal. Xi finally realized he was not able to exert his will and force others to accept his commitments.

The Nikkei Asian Review identifies the recalcitrant elements in the Communist Party as the organization’s “conservative Left” and “the rank and file—from the core of workers and management at state-owned companies, from industries that rely on subsidies for survival, and from the bureaucratic institutions that protect them.” As the Japanese journal noted, “The proposed deal threatened their interests.”

Jonathan Bass, chief executive of Los Angeles-based PTM Images, tells the National Interest that there is another element opposing Xi. Bass found during a November 2018 trip to China that provincial officials did not seem to be onboard with Xi on trade issues, thereby adding another level of opposition for the country’s embattled leader.

A variation of this Xi-is-weak theme involves China’s economy. Xi, according to this argument, has taken authority from other senior leaders to such an extent that he has also eliminated anyone to blame.
Because the economy is obviously deteriorating—April results, despite massive stimulus, look weak—it was his intention all along to withdraw commitments at the last moment to derail the deal that was close to signature. As Trump said before his meeting with the Hungarian prime minister on May 13, the agreement was “95 percent there.”

That maneuver allows Xi to tell the Chinese people that Americans—and not him—are responsible for the declining economy.

Whether Xi is weak or strong, Beijing’s people’s war label has consequences. Perhaps Chinese officials, accustomed to pushing the United States around, thought they could indulge themselves by using harsh language with impunity.
After all, Arthur Waldron, the University of Pennsylvania historian, this week said those officials have looked at America with disdain, as a “nation of bunny rabbits.”

Yet that country of furry creatures has now elected a president who is no longer taking Chinese insults in stride. In addition to hiking the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports as of May 10, he will be imposing elevated tariffs on another $300 billion soon. China has retaliated with higher tariffs on $60 billion of American goods. These measures are unlikely to be the last we see.

If Xi Jinping is indeed weak, as the bulk of the evidence suggests, there is no one for Trump to negotiate with. In Beijing, at the moment, only the most nationalistic responses are politically acceptable—and no one is in a position to sign on the dotted line. Perhaps that is why Chinese media at the end of last week signaled the country is not particularly interested in continuing trade talks.

China is obviously in trouble as the “people’s war” narrative indicates. That means the rest of us will be in trouble as well.
https://www.realclearworld.com/artic...ar_113023.html

[moon]

That's one impressive picture ! Our lot look like soccer moms having a break.

Trump's general plan- it seems- is to break the world to America's will by use of sanctions and dishonest trading ' spats '. That's a step up from the usual bombing of folk - but it's a strategy which could ultimately lead to defeat.

Then the bombs ? Worry.

[anatta]

That's one impressive picture ! Our lot look like soccer moms having a break.

The Communist Party grapples with a momentous anniversary


Student protests a century ago led to the party’s birth. They also inspired subsequent generations of dissidents
SHORT WALK from Tiananmen Square, young carworkers wearing company tracksuits stand with their fists in the air. They are renewing their vows to the Communist Youth League by chanting promises to “resolutely support” the Communist Party and “strictly follow” the league’s regulations. When they step aside for a group photo, 40 students from a technical college take their place to make their own pledges of loyalty. A growing queue of youngsters waits nearby to do the same.

The oath-swearing spot is in the courtyard of an imposing edifice of russet brick, known as the Red Building. A century ago it belonged to Peking University, one of China’s most prestigious seats of learning (now in a north-western suburb). There is a striking contrast between these professions of faith in a dictatorial party and an exhibition the same young people are taken to see inside the building. It is about the students who, 100 years ago on May 4th, set off from the Red Building and other sites around the city to join a protest at Tiananmen provoked by the shabby treatment of China by its allies after the first world war. The Treaty of Versailles had awarded a former German colony in China to Japan.
https://www.economist.com/china/2019...us-anniversary

[moon]

I have to say that the caption appears to be from another picture. Not a track-suit in sight, no fists and no queue. Apart from that.......

[anatta]

I have to say that the caption appears to be from another picture. Not a track-suit in sight, no fists and no queue. Apart from that.......

it's a drawing of the students 100 years ago -it might be the Red Building in background? ( read paragraph 2).

Paragraph 1 is about the current oath swearing in Tiananmen Square,
all this because of the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party & origins

Look at the first pick on post 1 is the The National People's Congress
*is the highest organ of state power and the national legislature of the People's Republic of China.*

see the dates 1919 -2019?

[Darth Omar]

Sounds like China is close to tapping-out on the trade war lol.

[anatta]

Sounds like China is close to tapping-out on the trade war lol.

Xi is losing his grip on power -he was given "president for life" with his promises of "Made in China 2025"
Trump specifically told him to stop using that global hegemon term .

But a weak Xi means there is no one to deal with,
and more tariffs are the only way to force China to negotiate in good faith - which Dems scream about
( with the notable exception of Schumer who backs Trump's hard line < - good on Schumer

[moon]

China is far stronger than you are anticipating. The US is losing world support as this trade tantrum starts to affect other nations. Isolationism is just around the corner- and the ass-biting will increase exponentially should Americans support such Trumpist economic warfare in 2020.

[anatta]

China is far stronger than you are anticipating. The US is losing world support as this trade tantrum starts to affect other nations. Isolationism is just around the corner- and the ass-biting will increase exponentially should Americans support such Trumpist economic warfare in 2020.

what kinna rant is this?
we know what China is all about ( regional/global hegemony .
Trouble for China is Trump isn't going along with their plans for the slow ride to 2nd class by the USA

If Hillary was around,no doubt she'd be attending a state dinner marking the 100 years!

[anatta]

The Economy Is Slipping': China's Slowdown Hits Former Boomtown
https://www.npr.org/2019/05/21/72494...ormer-boomtown

A passenger vessel traveling down the Yangtze River stops at a dock in downtown Chongqing, China


He Qiang should be manning his convenience store, but today he's collecting tiny green berries along the road and shooting them at birds with his slingshot. The 26-year-old is distracting himself from his worries. He spent all his savings — the equivalent of $35,000 — on a store that no longer has any customers.

He bought the store a year ago after hearing the economy of Hechuan, this city of more than a million people just outside the metropolis of Chongqing in southwest-central China, was booming. Automobile factories in Hechuan employed thousands of people who churned out SUVs for China's consumer class.

"My shop did well for a month after I moved here," says He, taking aim at a bird atop a tree. "But then, everyone left. Now, they're all gone. Every day, more people leave."

Assembly lines have shut down, workers have left, and Hechuan's streets, shops and many residents' pocketbooks are now empty. He's convenience store is still open, but hardly anybody buys anything, so he's taken another job next door as a fast food deliveryman. He says he rarely has to work because the restaurant is usually empty. It pays the equivalent of $500 a month.

"I'm barely getting by," He says. "I'm waiting to see if the economy picks up this year. When I lose all my money, I'll leave."

Hechuan has been incorporated into the greater Chongqing municipality, which is one of four megacities under the Chinese central government's control, and the only one located far away from a coast. Chongqing's population of more than 30 million lives among lush mountains and its hilly downtown is split by the Yangtze River.

This is China's blue-collar capital, home to an aspiring middle class and a landscape of factories at the heart of China's industrial sector; a heart whose beat is weakening.

[anatta]

For more than a decade, Chongqing's economy sped ahead with double-digit annual growth.
But last year, the city's gross domestic product grew less than expected at 6% — its slowest pace since 1989, according to the South China Morning Post. Industrial output overall grew just 3%, a 30-year low, the site said, while production in the auto sector plunged more than 17%, compared with the previous year.

After decades of demolition and reconstruction, Chongqing's city center has finally become a stunning mix of the natural world — forest-covered mountains crisscrossed by rivers — with a glimmering vertical landscape of steel and glass towers.
But among the urban jungle lie hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of unfinished projects, like the Hongyan Village Jialing River Bridge, west of downtown Chongqing. Construction on the $660 million bridge began in 2012 but has been halted for the last three years, reportedly because of a lack of funding. What remains are massive pillars rising from the Jialing River alongside cranes frozen in time.

"The city has other bridges under construction, too," says 72-year-old Lai Sanhui. "There are so many unfinished bridges."

Lai makes daily trips to a park beside the unfinished bridge to check on its progress. "They've stopped work for a couple of years," he says. "It would be finished already if they hadn't stopped working on it."

two years ago, fixed asset investment, which includes infrastructure spending, contributed close to 90% to Chongqing's annual GDP. But according to data from last year, fixed asset investment slowed by 3% from the previous year.

One city project moving ahead is slated to be Chongqing's highest structures: an eight-tower development that will soon become Raffles City Chongqing. It is set to become the tallest all-residential building in the world, rising 74 stories above an enormous shopping mall, according to Raffles City General Manager Vincent Wong.

Wong says that Raffles City's Singaporean developer sold 95% of the apartments in the first two towers three years ago, but when they opened a third residential tower last year, they only sold 35% of it.

To make way for the project, the city destroyed much of the city's emblematic wharf where boats traditionally stop on their way up the Yangtze.

Chongqing is famous for its street porters, known as "bangbang," meaning "stick-stick" men — freelancers who use bamboo sticks to carry heavy objects up from the wharf. The development project put hundreds of them out of work.

Many of Chongqing's street porters known as "bangbang" — which means "stick-stick" men — were displaced amid the city's large-scale development.

[anatta]

This is a sensitive topic, but it is whispered by many here: Bo Xilai, Communist Party secretary of Chongqing at the height of the city's boom a decade ago, was a potential candidate to lead China. He was removed from his post in 2012 in a corruption investigation that paved the way for President Xi Jinping to become China's leader the following year.

"If Bo were in Xi Jinping's role, foreigners wouldn't dare bully us like they do now," says Zhang. "The economy's been paralyzed since he left."

Whether it's from Bo's untimely departure, foreign bullying or just simple economics, a car salesman who only gives his surname Zhou says the economy has never felt this bad. "It's the same everywhere in the nation," he says from an empty car showroom. "We're all in this together."

Zhou sells SUVs made by Bisu, a Chinese car company in the city of Hechuan that has laid off much of its workforce due to poor sales. "I used to sell between one and two dozen cars per month," remembers Zhou. "Now I'm lucky if I sell one."

That's a tough reality for a salesman working on commission, so he's found another job to support his family.

.....
Yinxiang Group representatives hung up each time NPR called requesting an interview, but according to the company's website, it has spent nearly $2 billion on a development in Hechuan named "Yinxiang Town" that is filled with condos, hot springs and entertainment complexes.

Zhang says employees at Yinxiang Group are perplexed that the company is still eagerly building this development behind rows of empty factories. "Meanwhile they're not paying us," he says. "The factory isn't running. Yet here they are, still building."

For the time being, says Zhang, he'll keep working in the hopes that someday he'll be paid again after going without a paycheck for months. He says he can't afford to quit.
https://www.npr.org/2019/05/21/72494...ormer-boomtown

[canceled.2021.2]

Trump is winning and China knows it. All it has left it rhetoric. It has not economic cards to play.

Let’s be very clear. China has been in a trade war with the US for over 20 years. This is the first time a US President has fought back. Both Bush’s, Clinton and Obama all cowered

[dukkha]

Trump is winning and China knows it. All it has left it rhetoric. It has not economic cards to play.

might not matter if Xi is crippled and there is no one to negotiate with