Trump gives the momentum back to Democrats by trying again to kill Obamacare

**Bill** · 03-26-2019, 01:43 PM

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Trump defies conventional political wisdom with an 'own goal' on health care

Just one day after the explosive conclusion by Attorney General William Barr that the president did not obstruct justice, both political parties have pivoted to an issue that's much dearer to voters' hearts: health care.

Late Monday, the Justice Department announced it would not defend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ent...-2019-03-25)in court, setting up a possible Supreme Court decision that would finally do what Republicans have been trying to do for nine years: Kill Obamacare (also known as the ACA).

Some say the decision could come in 2020, just in time for the presidential election.

It's an odd decision. Now that the legal cloud over his head has lifted somewhat, President Donald Trump has decided to double down on his most unpopular policy issue. He even tweeted that the Republican Party would become the party of health care

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In soccer parlance, it's an own goal (when you accidentally kick the ball into your own net and give your opponent a goal). Trump has gift-wrapped a winning issue for the Democrats.

Related:Texas ruling over Obamacare is wrong to claim that without the insurance mandate, the health-care law can't survive (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tex...ive-2018-12-17)

You might think that an unpopular president heading into a re-election year would try to emphasize the good things he can take credit for (such as the economy, the tax cut, the trade deals), rather than remind voters of what they don't like. But Trump has always rejected the conventional political wisdom.

Last November's midterm elections were largely a referendum on two things (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dem...s-2018-11-06): Trump and health care. Democrats won huge gains -- particularly in the battlegrounds in the suburbs and in the Midwest that were decisive in 2016 and will be decisive again in 2020 -- because most voters 1. didn't like Trump; and 2. didn't trust the Republicans on health care.

Moving now to kill Obamacare via the courts is an own goal by the Trump administration. The Republicans could not kill Obamacare legislatively in 2017 (http://www.healthreformtracker.org/ahca-timeline/)(when they controlled both houses of Congress) because just enough Republican lawmakers were terrified of voters' wrath if they did away with the ACA's guaranteed coverage for pre-existing conditions.

They felt voters' wrath in 2018 anyway.

Health care was cited in exit polls (https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls)as the top issue by 41% of voters in 2018, far more than any other issue. Most of those people chose Democrats. What's more, 69% of voters said major changes are needed in health care, and most of them voted for Democrats, who want to strengthen, not gut, the ACA.

In addition, referendums to expand Medicaid passed in the red states of Utah, Nebraska and Idaho. Virginia and Maine expanded Medicaid following the 2018 elections as well.

About 20 million Americans receive health insurance through the ACA exchanges or from expanded Medicaid. Hundreds of millions more benefit from ACA provisions such as the pre-existing coverage guarantee.

After all the uproar over Obamacare, it's actually become pretty popular, although almost everybody sees the need to improve it. Democrats have put forth all sorts of ideas (https://www.vox.com/2018/12/13/18103...anders-jayapal) to simplify and expand health-care coverage.

Also read:Time for GOP to face reality: Everybody is going to have health insurance (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tim...nce-2017-07-28)

Democratic leaders in the House seemed relieved Tuesday that Trump had given them the advantage again after the anti-climax of Barr's memo about Special Counsel Robert Mueller's still-secret report had taken the wind out of their sails.

Democrats had already scheduled to introduce a bill Tuesday that would protect the ACA.

"Impeachment is not on the table until it is on the table," Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters on Tuesday. "So it's not a question of that -- this is not about that -- this is about us doing our work. Today we're introducing our health-care bill, tomorrow we'll be doing climate. ... We're on our agenda."

"I think that last night this administration opened a new chapter when it moved to completely invalidate the Affordable Care Act," said House Majority Whip James Clyburn on CNN. Health care "is the No. 1 thing on people's minds."

Quietly, the Democrats are still going to turn over every rock to investigate Trump and hold him accountable. But being anti-Trump was never going to be the winning strategy for 2020 anyway, just as it wasn't in 2016.

None of the major presidential candidates have talked very much about the Mueller investigation; they're trying to campaign on what they are for, not what they are against. That was also the key to the Democrats' huge victory in November. Most candidates hardly mentioned (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tru...-2018-11-06)He Who Must Not Be Named's name.

As long as he keeps doing things like trying to take away their health care, Trump provides the daily reminder to voters of what's at stake in 2020.

-Rex Nutting; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires