Get used to wild swings on this stock market, and thank the Fed for that

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Investors have been haunted by three big themes this week: trade talks, U.S. politics and, lately, the economy.

It has been a tall order trying to get the clouds to clear on any one of these issues. As for the first, stocks have been pinning gains on hopes of a trade deal. Talk of a broad agreement, and a “productive meeting” tweet from Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin may have calmed some nerves as trade wrapped Friday. you

“U.S. December retail sales rather shocked financial markets yesterday by seeming to imply that Americans had abandoned their lifelong national past time of spending money they don’t have on things they don’t need,” Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, told clients in a webcast.

“The world can probably breathe easily however, as this can be filed away under the headline of dodgy data,” he said, going on to point out how it was the second-best January for retail employment in 30 years, which hardly jibes with gloomy December sales data.

Our call of the day, from Seema Shah, global investment strategist at Principal Global Investors, is less sanguine. She says get inured to data-driven volatility for stocks, thanks to the U.S. central bank.

“The market is currently lacking in direction because there is no guidance from the Fed. So while the market tries to decide what the economic and monetary policy trajectory is, ‘the Fed’s data dependency means volatility will be elevated and markets may be subject to wild swings,’” said Shah in emailed comments.

Shah worries that the market has swung from “excessively pessimistic to excessively optimistic,” and may be underestimating coming headwinds from a global slowdown. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s U-turn is one reason that she likes U.S. and emerging-market equities, she hasn’t got hopes that the current rally will last too much longer.

“If the underlying economy really is that weak, weakening earnings growth will weigh on equities. Or, if the Fed was simply propping up markets, renewed fears of inflation and rising interest rates are likely. Whichever reason you prefer for the Fed’s U-turn, the conclusion is the same: enjoy the ride while it lasts.“

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge...yst-2019-02-15

[Bourbon]

[LV426]

It's not the Fed that caused the last 13 months of market turmoil...it was the Russia Tax Cut.

Since the start of the Russia Tax Cut, the market is largely flat, and didn't grow at all in 2018.

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It's not the Fed that caused the last 13 months of market turmoil...it was the Russia Tax Cut.

Since the start of the Russia Tax Cut, the market is largely flat, and didn't grow at all in 2018.

You're an effing lunatic, even for a Septic.

[LV426]

You're an effing lunatic, even for a Septic.

You're so stupid, you got conned by Donald Trump.

[cawacko]

You're an effing lunatic, even for a Septic.

He doesn’t understand what the Fed does or what drives the market. And no disrespect to bourbon but clearly he doesn’t either if he thinks talking about the Fed is a diversion.

Depending on who you listen to Powell has given very differing signals to the market over a period of several months. And as they say market dislikes the uncertainty and Powell is contributing to it

[LV426]

He doesn’t understand what the Fed does or what drives the market. And no disrespect to bourbon but clearly he doesn’t either if he thinks talking about the Fed is a diversion.

The Fed wasn't the reason for the last 13 months of market turmoil...that falls squarely on the Russia Tax Cut.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would grow the market.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would stop outsourcing and offshoring.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would pay for itself.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would raise wages by $4K-$9K.

Depending on who you listen to Powell has given very differing signals to the market over a period of several months. And as they say market dislikes the uncertainty and Powell is contributing to it

Blaming the Fed for the recent market turmoil is the coward's way out of acknowledging your fundamental core economic beliefs are horseshit. Like the core economic belief that cutting taxes generates increased economic activity, which leads to higher revenues.

[cancel2 2022]

The Fed wasn't the reason for the last 13 months of market turmoil...that falls squarely on the Russia Tax Cut.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would grow the market.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would stop outsourcing and offshoring.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would pay for itself.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would raise wages by $4K-$9K.




Blaming the Fed for the recent market turmoil is the coward's way out of acknowledging your fundamental core economic beliefs are horseshit. Like the core economic belief that cutting taxes generates increased economic activity, which leads to higher revenues.

You're a Septic loony, you obviously have no grasp of the way markets work. Seriously just shut the fuck up, you're truly embarrassing.

[LV426]

You're a Septic loony, you obviously have no grasp of the way markets work. Seriously just shut the fuck up, you're truly embarrassing.

Here's what happened to the markets over the last 13 months:

You juiced them in Q1 and Q2 2018 because your Russia Tax Cut resulted in increased earnings for two quarters. Then, the sugar high petered out and the market came crashing back to what it was before the tax cut because companies couldn't replicate the same earnings growth from the first half of the year.

So an entire year of market growth was wasted because of your stupid Russia Tax Cut.

[Minister of Truth]

The Fed wasn't the reason for the last 13 months of market turmoil...that falls squarely on the Russia Tax Cut.

A Russia Tax Cut that Conservatives said would grow the market.

You filthy socialist. It is supposed to grow the economy, not the NYSE. And it has done just that. Now, as far as your idiocy about the DJIA, it was up over 443 points today, which means you'll probably STFU about it in a few weeks.

[cawacko]

You filthy socialist. It is supposed to grow the economy, not the NYSE. And it has done just that. Now, as far as your idiocy about the DJIA, it was up over 443 points today, which means you'll probably STFU about it in a few weeks.

Hahaha. The best part is he got his MBA from Booth which is tied with Harvard in the rankings as the number one business school in the country and yet he thinks the stock market is the economy and has no idea what the Fed does and how their actions drive markets. I mean how one graduates from the top business school in the country lacking that knowledge is beyond my comprehension.

[cancel2 2022]

Hahaha. The best part is he got his MBA from Booth which is tied with Harvard in the rankings as the number one business school in the country and yet he thinks the stock market is the economy and has no idea what the Fed does and how their actions drive markets. I mean how one graduates from the top business school in the country lacking that knowledge is beyond my comprehension.

Who did?

[Minister of Truth]

Hahaha. The best part is he got his MBA from Booth which is tied with Harvard in the rankings as the number one business school in the country and yet he thinks the stock market is the economy and has no idea what the Fed does and how their actions drive markets. I mean how one graduates from the top business school in the country lacking that knowledge is beyond my comprehension.

Well, Chicago's business and economics schools have a reputation. I doubt they have actually maintained the quality, and are mostly just riding off of that. My cousin is working on his MBA, and drives down for night classes from Milwaukee.

[cawacko]

Who did?

LV claims he did

[cawacko]

Well, Chicago's business and economics schools have a reputation. I doubt they have actually maintained the quality, and are mostly just riding off of that. My cousin is working on his MBA, and drives down for night classes from Milwaukee.

Definitely possible they are riding on reputation but I’d still argue it’s hard to come out of that school with his ignorance