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Thread: Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Until we can explain early 20th century warming...

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    Default Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Until we can explain early 20th century warming...

    Climate scientists cannot explain why early 20th century warming occurred, so why should anyone trust them on more recent warming?


    A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950. Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.

    This is an issue that has long interested me. Peter Webster wrote a previous post Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming, which focused on the warm bump that culminated in the 1940’s. My interest in this period was reignited while working on my report Sea Level and Climate Change. Then, the recent paper by Zanna et al. discussed in Ocean Heat Content Surprises further made the wheels turn.

    In response to the Ocean Heat Content thread, David Appell posted a link to this paper on Twitter:

    The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes and consequences

    Gabi Hegerl, Stefan Bronniman, Andrew Shurer, Tim Cowan

    Abstract: “The most pronounced warming in the historical global climate record prior to the recent warming occurred over the first half of the 20th century and is known as the Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW). Understanding this period and the subsequent slowdown of warming is key to disentangling the relationship between decadal variability and the response to human influences in the present and future climate. This review discusses the observed changes during the ETCW and hypotheses for the underlying causes and mechanisms. Attribution studies estimate that about a half (40–54%; p > .8) of the global warming from 1901 to 1950 was forced by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and natural forcing, offset to some extent by aerosols. Natural variability also made a large contribution, particularly to regional anomalies like the Arctic warming in the 1920s and 1930s. The ETCW period also encompassed exceptional events, several of which are touched upon: Indian monsoon failures during the turn of the century, the “Dust Bowl” droughts and extreme heat waves in North America in the 1930s, the World War II period drought in Australia between 1937 and 1945; and the European droughts and heat waves of the late 1940s and early 1950s. Understanding the mechanisms involved in these events, and their links to large scale forcing is an important test for our understanding of modern climate change and for predicting impacts of future change.”

    HELLOOOOOO!

    This paper ‘shocked’ me for several reasons. First, I can’t imagine how I missed this paper when it was first published in Oct 2017 – apparently it received no publicity (oops now I remember, this was when i messed up my neck/shoulder/hand). Second, every time in the context of an attribution argument that I say ‘but the early 20th century global warming (not to mention the mid century cooling) and all those heat waves and droughts,’ I (along with my argument) am dismissed. I will paraphrase something I recall Gavin Schmidt saying: “We understand the late 20th century warming and have good forcing data, so no point to paying attention to the early warming where the data is far inferior.” And last but not least, the AMO and PDO are explicitly considered in Hegerl et al.’s attribution argument.

    The Hegerl et al paper is actually pretty good (as far as it goes). Lets take a closer look at their analysis and argument, then I will take it a bit further.

    Hegerl et al. provides a summary of forcing from CO2, volcanoes and solar (Figure 4, below). In 1910, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been estimated to be 300.1 ppm; in 1950 it was 311.3 ppm; and in 2018 it is 408 ppm. So, the warming during the period 1910-1945 was associated with a CO2 increase of 10 ppm, whereas a comparable amount of warming during the period 1950 to 2018 was associated with a 97 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2concentration – almost an order of magnitude greater CO2 increase for a comparable amount of global ocean warming. Back when CO2 concentrations were lower, each molecule had a greater radiative impact – but not THAT much.
    Read more: https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/e...lobal-warming/
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    Over the next week there will be two cold waves impacting the eastern half of the country. The first one will bring temperatures of 15 to 20 degrees below normal across the Midwest. The second will be the one for the record books.
    Over 20 cities have the potential to break record lows Wednesday and Thursday morning. And, more than 35 cities have the potential to have their coldest high temperature on record Wednesday and Thursday.
    This isn't just about records, though. The second cold blast will be very widespread, bringing below freezing temperatures all the way down to Florida. In fact, over 68 million people -- nearly a quarter of the US population -- will have a temperature fall below zero next week. Cities such as Minneapolis and Chicago are not forecast to have a high temperature above freezing for at least the next 10 days.
    "Record breaking and potentially historic outbreak of cold still appears to be in the offing for the middle of next week," according to the Chicago National Weather Service. "Greater than normal degree of forecast uncertainty in temperatures, due in large part to models showing all-time records being broken and in some cases shattered."

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    It's a shame that only skeptics archived the records from before the great adjustment era of the alarmists. It will make it difficult to reintroduce to a biased generation unwilling to accept the fraud they grew up under. I will give the perps their due respect for the thorough job of indoctrination the managed to inflict. My best friend's kid is a fucking nuclear engineer married to another scientist in the genetic field and they are such fervent believers in CAGW that they refuse to procreate. Fucking sad! We are losing some potential here! Can we stop with this religious movement?
    Quick, send those on-site researchers some computer models

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    "Record" is misleading. Our local records only go back 102 years. We had a record snowfall in December of 14 inches which is the most we have ever had in a day or in the month of December, but it isn't the most we have ever had even in the 102 years and except the plowed piles was gone in 3 days. We also had the most rainfall in 2018 we have ever had but most of that is because we had two hurricanes, one of which collided with a cold front causing it to cascade water from the clouds at an inch every ten minutes on average. What didn't we have in 2018? A sustained heatwave over 100 like we did when I was a kid; nor did we have a sustained freezing in the negatives like happened before I was born by a few decades.

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    It a blog piece.
    It is opinion.
    It is not peer reviewed science, and it is not published in a reputable peer reviewed journal.

    More importantly, Judith Curry acknowledges that the earth is warming, and that humans contribute to it.
    That is a far cry from the climate deniers on the forum who have spent message board careers either denying global warming, or claiming there is a vast international conspiracy to dupe the public, fake the data, and "hide the cooling".

    “Yes it’s warming. Yes, humans contribute to it. I mean everybody agrees with that; and I’m in the 98%. It’s when you get down to the details that there is genuine disagreement ."
    [Judith Curry, January 7, 2017]

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbr.../#26d900cae8c2

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    It a blog piece.
    It is opinion.
    It is not peer reviewed science, and it is not published in a reputable peer reviewed journal.

    More importantly, Judith Curry acknowledges that the earth is warming, and that humans contribute to it.
    That is a far cry from the climate deniers on the forum who have spent message board careers either denying global warming, or claiming there is a vast international conspiracy to dupe the public, fake the data, and "hide the cooling".
    How did I miss this prick out? Anyway Judith Curry has published many papers, one of the most recent co-authored with Nic Lewis. Naturally I wouldn't expect a retard like Crypiss to know about that.

    The warming in the early 20th century is well known, not least in contemporaneous accounts, but again I wouldn't expect him to know about that either.

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10....LI-D-17-0667.1
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cypress View Post
    It a blog piece.
    It is opinion.
    It is not peer reviewed science, and it is not published in a reputable peer reviewed journal.

    More importantly, Judith Curry acknowledges that the earth is warming, and that humans contribute to it.
    That is a far cry from the climate deniers on the forum who have spent message board careers either denying global warming, or claiming there is a vast international conspiracy to dupe the public, fake the data, and "hide the cooling".
    Who do we believe? A world renowned climatologist like Dr. Judith Curry or a Russian sex pest with a penchant for rewriting history? That's a tough one!!
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    Paul Homewood on the Judith Curry study.

    Judith, in her usual thorough way, introduces much scientific thinking, both pro and anti.

    But her summing up puts the whole thing in a nutshell:

    In order to have any confidence in the IPCC and NCA attribution statements, much greater effort is needed to understand the role multi-decadal to millennial scales of internal climate variability.

    Much more effort is needed to understand not only the early 20th century warming, but also the ‘grand hiatus’ from 1945-1975. Attempting to attribute these features to aerosol (stratospheric or pollution) forcing haven’t gotten us very far. The approach taken by Xie’s group is providing important insights.

    Once we do satisfactorily explain these 20th century features, then we need to tackle the 19th century — overall warming, with global sea level rise initiating ~1860, and NH glacier melt initiating ~1850. And then we need to tackle the last 800 years – the Little Ice Age and the ‘recovery’. (See my previous post 400 years(?) of global warming). The mainstream attribution folk are finally waking up to the importance of multidecadal ocean oscillations — we have barely scratched the surface re understanding century to millennial scale oscillations, as highlighted in the recent Gebbie and Huybers paper discussed on Ocean Heat Content Surprises.

    There are too many climate scientists that expect global surface temperature, sea ice, glacier mass loss and sea level to follow the ‘forcing’ on fairly short time scales. This is not how the climate system works, as was eloquently shown by Gebbie and Huybers. The Arctic in particular responds very strongly to multidecadal and longer internal variability, and also to solar forcing.

    Until all this is sorted out, we do not have a strong basis for attributing anything close to ~100% of the warming since 1950 to humans, or for making credible projections of 21st century climate change.

    It is a point I have often made.

    There is little dispute, outside of the blinkered Hockey Stick community, that the world’s climate has regularly swung from warm to cold and back again.

    The most recent episode, of course, was the plunge from the MWP to LIA.

    Yet nobody, in my opinion, has come up with any plausible theory to explain these cycles.

    Until we can explain why the world’s climate changed from Middle Age warmth to the coldest times since the Ice Age culminating in the 19th C, we cannot hope to understand why it has warmed up again since.

    As Judith notes, it seems that the oceans have a big role to play in this, and this is something else today’s CO2 obsessed scientists have little understanding of.

    We hear that the oceans have warmed up as a result of AGW. But as anybody with basic knowledge of oceanography will tell you, it is ocean temperatures which dictate the world’s climate, and not vice versa.

    And until we can fully explain what drives oceanic changes, we cannot hope to predict what might happen in the future.
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.word...ecent-warming/
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    Just to prove that climate alarmism is nothing new, this is from the Washington Post dated November 1922.

    The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway.

    Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.

    Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    We had frigid cold and wind and yesterday I had the first honey bee of the year zooming about my face. It is a weird one this winter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 10DayUserName View Post
    We had frigid cold and wind and yesterday I had the first honey bee of the year zooming about my face. It is a weird one this winter.
    Cool.

    Gone are the days when weather was a friendly mundane topic that strangers could safely chitchat about while waiting in line at the grocery store . The angry, hate-filled, power mad Socialists have politicized everything.
    I condemn the National Socialist German Workers Party, the Socialist Democrat Hate Whitey Party,... and Socialist Workers party heroes, Mao, Chavez, Mussolini, Pol Pot, Stalin, Castro and Kim Jung Un.

    Liberal Racist code: Orange is the New White

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdog View Post
    Cool.

    Gone are the days when weather was a friendly mundane topic that strangers could safely chitchat about while waiting in line at the grocery store . The angry, hate-filled, power mad Socialists have politicized everything.
    If that thing were the last honey bee on the planet I still would have smashed it if it had gotten any closer to my face. It was quite weird to have one that up close. I guess just woke up and looking for something edible.

    Guess I should venture back out and do some more brush clearing since that stupid groundhog cheated me out of six more weeks of slothing about. I'd smash him with a shovel too if I could. Bastard rat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 10DayUserName View Post
    If that thing were the last honey bee on the planet I still would have smashed it if it had gotten any closer to my face. It was quite weird to have one that up close. I guess just woke up and looking for something edible.

    Guess I should venture back out and do some more brush clearing since that stupid groundhog cheated me out of six more weeks of slothing about. I'd smash him with a shovel too if I could. Bastard rat.
    Personally, I wouldn't smash either one.
    I condemn the National Socialist German Workers Party, the Socialist Democrat Hate Whitey Party,... and Socialist Workers party heroes, Mao, Chavez, Mussolini, Pol Pot, Stalin, Castro and Kim Jung Un.

    Liberal Racist code: Orange is the New White

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    Quote Originally Posted by Havana Moon View Post
    Just to prove that climate alarmism is nothing new, this is from the Washington Post dated November 1922.
    After the media feeding frenzy and hysteria over Australia recently, here is a reminder that heatwaves there are nothing new!!

    Marble Bar heatwave, 1923-24

    The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100°Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days.

    Temperatures above 100°F are common in Marble Bar and indeed throughout a wide area of northwestern Australia. On average, Marble Bar experiences about 154 such days each year. The town is far enough inland that, during the summer months, the only mechanisms likely to prevent the air from reaching such a temperature involve a southward excursion of humid air associated with the monsoon trough, or heavy cloud, and/or rain, in the immediate area. This may sometimes be associated with a tropical cyclone or a monsoon low. In the record year of 1923-24 the monsoon trough stayed well north, and the season was notable for its lack of cyclone activity. (In fact, the entire Australian continent was untouched by tropical cyclones throughout the season, a rare event in the 20th Century). The rainfall recorded at Marble Bar during the record 160 days was just 79 mm, most of it in two heavy, short-lived storms that developed after the heat of the day. Only a further 12 mm of rain fell before the following December. Severe drought prevailed across the Western Australian tropics, and stock losses were heavy. With no rain to speak of, and minimal cloud, there was nothing to relieve day after day of extreme heat.

    Temperature chart

    "Day by day maximum temperatures at Marble Bar over the period 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924. At the peak of the heatwave - between late December and late February - many days approached or exceeded 45°C".

    The highest temperature recorded during the record spell was 47.5°C on 18 January 1924. There have been higher temperatures at Marble Bar, with the highest recorded being 49.2°C, on 11 January 1905 and again on 3 January 1922. But temperatures in other Western Australian towns have been higher: in a remarkable late-season heat-wave in February 1998, Mardie recorded a maximum of 50.5°C (on the 19th) - the highest temperature in Western Australia, and the second highest ever recorded in Australia using standard instrumentation (Oodnadatta, in South Australia, recorded 50.7°C on 2 January 1960). Several other recordings above 49°C were reported in the northwest on the days preceding Mardie’s record, and at Nyang, the average maximum over the entire summer exceeded 43°C. As in 1923-24, very dry conditions accompanied the extreme heat.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/...ave-1923-1924/
    Last edited by Havana Moon; 02-12-2019 at 02:57 AM.
    In rejecting their view [Spinoza, Leibnitz and Hegel], as I shall contend that we must, we are committing ourselves to the opinion that “truth” in empirical material has a meaning different from that which it bears in logic and mathematics.”

    Bertrand Russell, “An Inquiry Into Meaning & Truth” (1940)

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    Couldn't we send all these flat-earther weirdoes to some other planet so that we can get something done about the merry fruits of capitalism?

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