One well-known independent economist thinks it will happen even sooner—he’s looking for a global recession to start in 2019. A. Gary Shilling, president of his eponymous consulting firm, made two of the best contrarian calls of recent decades: he saw the mega-bull market in bonds at its very outset in 1981, and in the years before the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, warned repeatedly that the housing bubble would turn into a bust and would take the whole economy down with it.
Now he says it’s once again time to batten down the hatches. Although he concedes that financial excesses aren’t what they were a decade ago and that the Federal Reserve is not raising rates willy-nilly—the two principal causes of recessions since World War II—he thinks the global economy will die a “death by a thousand cuts” in 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Shilling
this man has gotten it right over and over
SO THE REPUBLICANS HATE HIM
just like they hate science
and math
and history
SEC Votes for Final Rules Defining How Banks Can Be Securities Brokers
Eight Years After Passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, Key Provisions Will Now Be Implemented
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2007-190
Washington, D.C., Sept. 19, 2007 - Ending eight years of stalled negotiations and impasse, the Commission today voted to adopt, jointly with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), new rules that will finally implement the bank broker provisions of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999. The Board will consider these final rules at its Sept. 24, 2007 meeting. The Commission and the Board consulted with and sought the concurrence of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and Office of Thrift Supervision
Recessions are a natural and necessary part of the business cycle. They are the economic equivalent of taking a good dump after a night out of eating and drinking yourself into a coma.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christ...U.S._Recession
Response to the beginning of the 2008 U.S. Recession[edit]
Further information: Late 2000s recession
Cox, Hank Paulson, and Ben Bernanke watch as President George W. Bush delivers a statement on the economy in 2008
Under his leadership, the SEC on September 17 and 18, 2008, imposed a variety of both permanent and emergency restrictions on short selling in response to the liquidity crisis.[97] Abusive naked short selling, in which the seller intentionally fails to deliver the shares sold short in time for settlement, was banned outright, an exception for options market makers that had been in place for several years was eliminated,[98] and a new anti-fraud provision, Rule 10b-21, was adopted to give specific enforcement authority in such cases.[99] In September 2008, short selling of 799 financial stocks was temporarily curtailed[97] in response to rumors accompanied by heightened short selling activity in the shares of major financial institutions.
On September 26, 2008, Cox ended the 2004 program for voluntary regulation of investment bank holding companies, begun under SEC Chairman William Donaldson and then-Director of Market Regulation (later SEC Commissioner) Annette Nazareth. The program "was fundamentally flawed from the beginning, because investment banks could opt in or out of supervision voluntarily," Cox said.[100] A critical report by the SEC inspector general that evaluated the program in light of the Bear Stearns near-failure in March 2008 found that while "Bear Stearns was compliant with the capital and liquidity requirements" at the time of its acquisition, "its collapse raises serious questions about the adequacy of these requirements." However, according to the Inspector General, his report "did not include a determination of the cause of Bear Stearns' collapse" or determine "whether any of these issues directly contributed to Bear Stearns' collapse." On that subject, the report stated, "we have no evidence linking these significant deficiencies with the cause of Bear Stearns' collapse."[101][102] Cox criticized the oversight program on the ground that because of its voluntary nature and the SEC's limited statutory authority, the agency could not force changes in the hundreds of unregulated subsidiaries of large investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns as bank regulators could do with bank holding companies. In testimony before Congress on several occasions in 2008, he asked for statutory authority to regulate investment bank holding companies.[103]
In addition to the fact that the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act did not give the SEC the authority to regulate large investment bank holding companies, Cox noted that investors were vulnerable to other regulatory gaps such as the fact that the $60 trillion market for credit default swaps was then completely unregulated. "Neither the SEC nor any regulator has authority even to require minimum disclosure", he said.[100] In testimony and public statements he urged Congress to enact remedial legislation.[104]
Cox said that during the buildup of the credit crisis, when the credit rating agencies were still unregulated, they gave top credit ratings to financial instruments which packaged risky loans and spread the negative impacts of the credit crisis more broadly throughout the markets.[105] Following the first-time SEC registration of the credit rating agencies in September 2007 under newly enacted legislative authority, he ordered a 10-month examination of the three major rating agencies that uncovered significant weaknesses in their ratings practices for mortgage-backed securities and that called into question the impartiality of their ratings. The results were reported to Congress in July 2008.[106] The SEC immediately commenced a rulemaking which concluded on December 3, 2008 with approval of a series of measures to regulate the conflicts of interests, disclosures, internal policies, and business practices of credit rating agencies. The regulations were intended to ensure that firms provide more meaningful ratings and greater disclosure to investors concerning collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage-backed securities.[107]
In an interview with the Washington Post in late December 2008, Cox said, "What we have done in this current turmoil is stay calm, which has been our greatest contribution—not being impulsive, not changing the rules willy-nilly, but going through a very professional and orderly process that takes into account unintended consequences and gives ample notice to market participants." Cox added that the Commission's decision to impose a three-week ban on short selling of financial company stocks was taken reluctantly, but that the view at the time, including from Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, was that "if we did not act and act at that instant, these financial institutions could fail as a result and there would be nothing left to save."[108] In a December 2008 interview with Reuters, he explained that the SEC's Office of Economic Analysis was still evaluating data from the temporary ban, and that preliminary findings pointed to several unintended market consequences and side effects. "While the actual effects of this temporary action will not be fully understood for many more months, if not years ... knowing what we know now, I believe on balance the Commission would not do it again."[109]
Cox stepped down as Chairman of the SEC at the end of the Bush administration, on January 20, 2009.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christ...Current_career
Following his tenure at the SEC and a 24-year career in elected and appointed office that included service in the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of the U.S. government, Cox returned to his home in Southern California and the practice of law, which had been his pre-Washington profession. He joined the Boston-based international law firm of Bingham McCutchen LLP as a partner in the firm's Corporate, M&A and Securities practice, resident in its Orange County office, where in 2014 The Best Lawyers in America named him Lawyer of the Year in the Corporate Governance category
he has been a republican all his life
and hes a corporate lawyer
he fucked you and you ask for more
here you go folks
the republicans denied all warnings in the lead up to the 2008 economic crash
Now they trash the people who correctly predicted the mess they were causing
In the U.S., the still-unresolved tariff war with China and the stalemated government shutdown may be having a bigger impact on the economy than many anticipated. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Politico’s Ben White that when the ripple effects of these big events are factored in, first-quarter U.S. GDP growth could drop to zero.
the second paragraph of the piece
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