Why you shouldn't trust RealClear Politics polls

[canceled.2021.2]

So everyone is typically enamored with RealClear Politics they think that because they present an "average" of polls that this is a more accurate way of looking at a race. There is some validity to that argument, but there are some caveats. One, it all depends on the polls RealClear Politics decides to include OR not include which introduces selection bias

For example, lets look at the Senate race in West Virginia

If you look at RealClear Politics, it would look like Manchin is firmly ahead and cruising to victory. They have him with an RCP average spread of 9.6%. Looking at that, one would believe that Manchin is cruising to victory

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...chin-6258.html

BUT and this is a very big BUT

RCP has not posted any recent polls since the Kavanaugh debacle that the democrats perpetrated. There have been polls done, but RCP doesn't include them. Why?

If you look at the table in this link, it paints a much different and worrying picture for Manchin

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate...west-virginia/

The trend is obviously moving away from Manchin and was doing so BEFORE the Kavanaugh hearings. Manchin is polling well below the magic 50% number for an incumbent particularly one like Manchin who is well known in the state. If you look at the most recent poll there are 19% undecided. That is not good at all for Manchin as history shows us that most undecideds often break for the challenger

If you look at RCP you would think Manchin is going to win. If you look at the link I provided, I think this race is now Lean Republican

[Jarod]

So everyone is typically enamored with RealClear Politics they think that because they present an "average" of polls that this is a more accurate way of looking at a race. There is some validity to that argument, but there are some caveats. One, it all depends on the polls RealClear Politics decides to include OR not include which introduces selection bias

For example, lets look at the Senate race in West Virginia

If you look at RealClear Politics, it would look like Manchin is firmly ahead and cruising to victory. They have him with an RCP average spread of 9.6%. Looking at that, one would believe that Manchin is cruising to victory

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...chin-6258.html

BUT and this is a very big BUT

RCP has not posted any recent polls since the Kavanaugh debacle that the democrats perpetrated. There have been polls done, but RCP doesn't include them. Why?

If you look at the table in this link, it paints a much different and worrying picture for Manchin

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate...west-virginia/

The trend is obviously moving away from Manchin and was doing so BEFORE the Kavanaugh hearings. Manchin is polling well below the magic 50% number for an incumbent particularly one like Manchin who is well known in the state. If you look at the most recent poll there are 19% undecided. That is not good at all for Manchin as history shows us that most undecideds often break for the challenger

If you look at RCP you would think Manchin is going to win. If you look at the link I provided, I think this race is now Lean Republican

Manchin won!