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Thread: Yield on 30 year T-bond at 5 year high. 10 year at 7 year high

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    Default Yield on 30 year T-bond at 5 year high. 10 year at 7 year high

    This is good news for our cratering pension system but very very bad news for the housing and stock markets.


    https://www.businessinsider.com/bond...arkets-2018-10
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    Isn't that a sign stocks have peaked?

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    I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Micawber View Post
    Isn't that a sign stocks have peaked?
    No, not at all. It's generally a sign that the T-bonds aren't an attractive investment and the government is trying to drum up some bidness.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?
    if the yield curve inverts it's often a sign a recession is coming

    an inverted yield curve occurs when long term debt has lower rates than short term debt with the same credit

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    Yes, a recession is most likely coming.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cawacko View Post
    if the yield curve inverts it's often a sign a recession is coming

    an inverted yield curve occurs when long term debt has lower rates than short term debt with the same credit
    Thanks, cawacko. I always here something about "the Yield Curve flattening", or the "Yield Curve is steepening", or "the Yield Curve might invert", but really not sure what that is all about. It's like the Chartists talking about "Head and Shoulders" or "Cup and Handle".

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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmymccready View Post
    Yes, a recession is most likely coming.
    Why do you think so?

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    It's not gonna be a recession or a depression. Much worse. The world's financial system will have to be reset.
    Reckless drivers are a bigger threat to you than all other criminals put together!

    THE BIG LIE - Blacks and whites are different physically but identical mentally!

    There is no way 81 million americans voted for a man they know is a child molester w dementia. Impeach Joe the Pedophile Vegetable (JPV)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Text Drivers are Killers View Post
    This is good news for our cratering pension system but very very bad news for the housing and stock markets.


    https://www.businessinsider.com/bond...arkets-2018-10
    It means people do not trust our bonds anymore because you're turning the dollar into monopoly money in your desire to print it like mad and sent it to rich people's bank accounts.
    "Do not think that I came to bring peace... I did not come to bring peace, but a sword." - Matthew 10:34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
    I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?
    Yes, it is a graph of the difference in yields from the 90 day tbill out to the 30 year treasury. Right now the curve is relatively flat... meaning there is little difference in yield between the longer and shorter maturities. Typically in a strong economic environment, you would see a steeper curve at this point.

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    As for the OP, no, we are not at five year highs. The yield was about 3.9% at the tail end of 2013. The yield throughout 2014 was higher than it is today. Though we are getting closer to that level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    No, not at all. It's generally a sign that the T-bonds aren't an attractive investment and the government is trying to drum up some bidness.
    The problem right now is there is too MUCH interest in the long bond. Predominantly due to the fact that our bond yields are greater than that of any other 'safe' piece of sovereign debt. (think Germany, UK, Japan etc...)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guille View Post
    Why do you think so?
    The most likely factor to spark a recession will be wage inflation. The labor market is extremely tight right now. Unless labor participation rate spikes back up, wage inflation will likely start showing up next year (latter half).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Superfreak View Post
    The most likely factor to spark a recession will be wage inflation. The labor market is extremely tight right now. Unless labor participation rate spikes back up, wage inflation will likely start showing up next year (latter half).
    Oh the horror, wages rise after 50 years of stagnation as the owners of capital take all the money for themselves in rent.

    We need to nationalize all capital and send the 1% to reeducation camps. The income belongs to the workers. Owners produce nothing.
    "Do not think that I came to bring peace... I did not come to bring peace, but a sword." - Matthew 10:34

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