Quote Originally Posted by Irthriuth View Post
So some analysis

At this point, it should be obvious there will be a floor vote no matter what. The odd thing is though, while usually if mcconnel were to bring something to the floor it should be assumed to be locked up, we can't be 100% confident this time around.

I think the calculation they should probably see in front of them is that they will look way too weak acquiescing to these smear tactics, and the voters will eat them alive. So at this point it's better for republicans to bring it to the floor and have it fail than to pull it entirely. Long way of me saying it's never going to be over until it's over.

Then we have the flake factor and how badly he wants to fuck us or be a little bitch. Given his term is going to be up and he's not going to be a senator anymore, he's ripe for bribes or cushy promotions likely being offered by democrats when he gets out of congress. So I worry about him a bit. We can afford to lose one.
I agree. I consider Flake already gone. The only thing that could keep him in line is if he is arrogant enough to have 2020 or beyond ambitions.

If he decides to pull a McShamnesty and screw this then he will be finished in GOP politics forever. Nobody will ever let him forget it.

So what Flake does really depends on where he thinks his future lies.

I think Corker is a safe vote

Have no clue about Murkowski or Collins.

I think it all hinges on whether Ford shows up or not. IF she doesn’t it is going to be hard for republicans to defect.

Don’t rule out Manchin, Tester or Heidkamp defecting to Kavanaugh. I don’t think it is a safe assumption that they are definite no.

I think the dems are going to try to pull an 11th hour stall like “Ramirez now wants to testify but needs time, and if you don’t give her time it isn’t fair”.

Also we are going to find out if Avenatti is bluffing or not.