We are in the midst of an authentic economic boom.

[dukkha]

Remember when Mitt Romney was trashed for saying that “corporations are people?”

President Obama, who claimed to corner the market on compassion, never understood that it is people — consumers, people who manage big companies and people who own smaller firms — that ultimately lead the economy forward.

We are in the midst of an authentic economic boom. Why? Because those same people are making decisions to hire and invest, decisions that emerge from their growing confidence.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which conducts regular surveys of small business owners, reported this week that optimism among its members in August had hit an all-time high.

Optimism topped the prior record set in 1983, a year in which Ronald Reagan was president and GDP grew at 4.6 percent. What happened next? Growth jumped in 1984 to 7.2 percent.

Soaring optimism and an accelerating economy are extraordinary achievements, especially given that the liberal media is not exactly cheerleading from the sidelines.

Buried in every article reporting that wage growth was the strongest for nine years or that productivity is finally beginning to increase are dark warnings about the impact of trade conflicts or the threat of looming inflation.

It’s understandable; Republicans are campaigning with surging growth at their back, and the anti-Trump press certainly does not want to help them out. But those ominous warning can take a toll on sentiment.

Still, the numbers are undeniable. A record number of people are quitting their jobs, confident something better will come along. Job openings are at a record high; consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board, was the highest in August since 2000; and capital investment is ratcheting up.

Some are beginning to hint that there’s more good news to come. One of Wall Street’s leading economists sent a report to clients this week saying various industries are still strengthening, with the banner: “Strength of U.S. Economy May Be Underestimated.”

This growth potential has been underestimated by the likes of Larry Summers who said our growth would forever be tempered by “secular stagnation” or by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who scoffed that lower taxes won’t help the middle class.

But the impact of the Trump agenda is not underestimated by business leaders who protested in vain against the regulatory assault from the Obama White House and complained that high tax rates were impeding their competitiveness.

There are, to be sure, reasons that the economy could slow. First is the real possibility that Democrats take over the House of Representatives in November. Promises to impeach President Trump, roll back tax cuts and reverse significant regulatory relief would go a long way toward undermining the confidence with which CEOs are investing today.

Also, there is no question that the trade skirmishes with China, the EU and our North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners have alarmed some sectors.

It looks likely that the NAFTA reboot will be put to bed soon (Canada is hinting at flexibility with respect to its steep dairy tariffs), and there is apparently progress behind the scenes with the EU.

China continues to press a hard line with negotiations, but we are skeptical they will allow their economy to slow further just to save face. If the EU and the U.S. move together toward significant World Trade Organization (WTO) reforms, the Chinese will suffer. Our guess is they will forestall that outcome by coming back to the table.

Trade tensions are not as concerning for those running small businesses as they are for big corporations, since the little guys generally have less exposure to overseas markets.

Threats of tariffs and disrupted trade agreements may alarm the head of General Motors but are unlikely to mean much to the person who owns several car washes or McDonald’s franchises.

That person is more concerned with tax rates, materials costs, health-care costs for employees, the availability of workers and the endless haggling with federal and local authorities over safety and labor rules. Those issues are real, and some, like prices for raw materials or the difficulty filling jobs, are increasingly troublesome.

But, for the most part, those problems are being buried by surging demand. Business has, according to many, never been better.

The NFIB survey showed hiring plans setting a new record, while the number of owners declaring the time is right for expansion tied the all-time high reached in May.

Sales, investment and earnings are breaking records. According to NFIB, “August is the ninth consecutive strong month of reported sales gains after years of low or negative numbers.”

If President Obama is puzzled why some give President Trump credit for the surging economy, it comes down to this: During his eight years in office, business leaders never felt confident about the future. It takes confidence to build a new plant or gear up for higher sales.

Today, as lower taxes make firms more profitable and lighter regulations allow them to be more agile and focused on satisfying customers rather than Uncle Sam, managers are more willing to plunge ahead. Last month, a record number of business owners decided to build inventories — making the bet that higher demand is here to stay.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a press release, “At the beginning of this historic run, Index gains were dominated by expectations…Now the Index is dominated by real business activity that makes GDP grow: job creation plans, job openings, string capital spending plans, record inventory investment plans, and earnings.”

This is exactly what the Trump economic plan of lower taxes and lighter regulations was meant to create. It wasn’t a shot in the dark. It had happened before, under President Reagan.
http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4...asp-on-economy

[floridafan]

Remember when Mitt Romney was trashed for saying that “corporations are people?”

President Obama, who claimed to corner the market on compassion, never understood that it is people — consumers, people who manage big companies and people who own smaller firms — that ultimately lead the economy forward.

We are in the midst of an authentic economic boom. Why? Because those same people are making decisions to hire and invest, decisions that emerge from their growing confidence.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which conducts regular surveys of small business owners, reported this week that optimism among its members in August had hit an all-time high.

Optimism topped the prior record set in 1983, a year in which Ronald Reagan was president and GDP grew at 4.6 percent. What happened next? Growth jumped in 1984 to 7.2 percent.

Soaring optimism and an accelerating economy are extraordinary achievements, especially given that the liberal media is not exactly cheerleading from the sidelines.

Buried in every article reporting that wage growth was the strongest for nine years or that productivity is finally beginning to increase are dark warnings about the impact of trade conflicts or the threat of looming inflation.

It’s understandable; Republicans are campaigning with surging growth at their back, and the anti-Trump press certainly does not want to help them out. But those ominous warning can take a toll on sentiment.

Still, the numbers are undeniable. A record number of people are quitting their jobs, confident something better will come along. Job openings are at a record high; consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board, was the highest in August since 2000; and capital investment is ratcheting up.

Some are beginning to hint that there’s more good news to come. One of Wall Street’s leading economists sent a report to clients this week saying various industries are still strengthening, with the banner: “Strength of U.S. Economy May Be Underestimated.”

This growth potential has been underestimated by the likes of Larry Summers who said our growth would forever be tempered by “secular stagnation” or by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who scoffed that lower taxes won’t help the middle class.

But the impact of the Trump agenda is not underestimated by business leaders who protested in vain against the regulatory assault from the Obama White House and complained that high tax rates were impeding their competitiveness.

There are, to be sure, reasons that the economy could slow. First is the real possibility that Democrats take over the House of Representatives in November. Promises to impeach President Trump, roll back tax cuts and reverse significant regulatory relief would go a long way toward undermining the confidence with which CEOs are investing today.

Also, there is no question that the trade skirmishes with China, the EU and our North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners have alarmed some sectors.

It looks likely that the NAFTA reboot will be put to bed soon (Canada is hinting at flexibility with respect to its steep dairy tariffs), and there is apparently progress behind the scenes with the EU.

China continues to press a hard line with negotiations, but we are skeptical they will allow their economy to slow further just to save face. If the EU and the U.S. move together toward significant World Trade Organization (WTO) reforms, the Chinese will suffer. Our guess is they will forestall that outcome by coming back to the table.

Trade tensions are not as concerning for those running small businesses as they are for big corporations, since the little guys generally have less exposure to overseas markets.

Threats of tariffs and disrupted trade agreements may alarm the head of General Motors but are unlikely to mean much to the person who owns several car washes or McDonald’s franchises.

That person is more concerned with tax rates, materials costs, health-care costs for employees, the availability of workers and the endless haggling with federal and local authorities over safety and labor rules. Those issues are real, and some, like prices for raw materials or the difficulty filling jobs, are increasingly troublesome.

But, for the most part, those problems are being buried by surging demand. Business has, according to many, never been better.

The NFIB survey showed hiring plans setting a new record, while the number of owners declaring the time is right for expansion tied the all-time high reached in May.

Sales, investment and earnings are breaking records. According to NFIB, “August is the ninth consecutive strong month of reported sales gains after years of low or negative numbers.”

If President Obama is puzzled why some give President Trump credit for the surging economy, it comes down to this: During his eight years in office, business leaders never felt confident about the future. It takes confidence to build a new plant or gear up for higher sales.

Today, as lower taxes make firms more profitable and lighter regulations allow them to be more agile and focused on satisfying customers rather than Uncle Sam, managers are more willing to plunge ahead. Last month, a record number of business owners decided to build inventories — making the bet that higher demand is here to stay.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a press release, “At the beginning of this historic run, Index gains were dominated by expectations…Now the Index is dominated by real business activity that makes GDP grow: job creation plans, job openings, string capital spending plans, record inventory investment plans, and earnings.”

This is exactly what the Trump economic plan of lower taxes and lighter regulations was meant to create. It wasn’t a shot in the dark. It had happened before, under President Reagan.
http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4...asp-on-economy

If we are in the middle of an economic boom, why is our deficit growing so rapidly, and just what will happen to that deficit once interest rates rise and the economy slows down?

[Cypress]

Thanks Obama!!

[Oneuli]

Remember when Mitt Romney was trashed for saying that “corporations are people?”

President Obama, who claimed to corner the market on compassion, never understood that it is people — consumers, people who manage big companies and people who own smaller firms — that ultimately lead the economy forward.

We are in the midst of an authentic economic boom. Why? Because those same people are making decisions to hire and invest, decisions that emerge from their growing confidence.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which conducts regular surveys of small business owners, reported this week that optimism among its members in August had hit an all-time high.

Optimism topped the prior record set in 1983, a year in which Ronald Reagan was president and GDP grew at 4.6 percent. What happened next? Growth jumped in 1984 to 7.2 percent.

Soaring optimism and an accelerating economy are extraordinary achievements, especially given that the liberal media is not exactly cheerleading from the sidelines.

Buried in every article reporting that wage growth was the strongest for nine years or that productivity is finally beginning to increase are dark warnings about the impact of trade conflicts or the threat of looming inflation.

It’s understandable; Republicans are campaigning with surging growth at their back, and the anti-Trump press certainly does not want to help them out. But those ominous warning can take a toll on sentiment.

Still, the numbers are undeniable. A record number of people are quitting their jobs, confident something better will come along. Job openings are at a record high; consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board, was the highest in August since 2000; and capital investment is ratcheting up.

Some are beginning to hint that there’s more good news to come. One of Wall Street’s leading economists sent a report to clients this week saying various industries are still strengthening, with the banner: “Strength of U.S. Economy May Be Underestimated.”

This growth potential has been underestimated by the likes of Larry Summers who said our growth would forever be tempered by “secular stagnation” or by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who scoffed that lower taxes won’t help the middle class.

But the impact of the Trump agenda is not underestimated by business leaders who protested in vain against the regulatory assault from the Obama White House and complained that high tax rates were impeding their competitiveness.

There are, to be sure, reasons that the economy could slow. First is the real possibility that Democrats take over the House of Representatives in November. Promises to impeach President Trump, roll back tax cuts and reverse significant regulatory relief would go a long way toward undermining the confidence with which CEOs are investing today.

Also, there is no question that the trade skirmishes with China, the EU and our North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners have alarmed some sectors.

It looks likely that the NAFTA reboot will be put to bed soon (Canada is hinting at flexibility with respect to its steep dairy tariffs), and there is apparently progress behind the scenes with the EU.

China continues to press a hard line with negotiations, but we are skeptical they will allow their economy to slow further just to save face. If the EU and the U.S. move together toward significant World Trade Organization (WTO) reforms, the Chinese will suffer. Our guess is they will forestall that outcome by coming back to the table.

Trade tensions are not as concerning for those running small businesses as they are for big corporations, since the little guys generally have less exposure to overseas markets.

Threats of tariffs and disrupted trade agreements may alarm the head of General Motors but are unlikely to mean much to the person who owns several car washes or McDonald’s franchises.

That person is more concerned with tax rates, materials costs, health-care costs for employees, the availability of workers and the endless haggling with federal and local authorities over safety and labor rules. Those issues are real, and some, like prices for raw materials or the difficulty filling jobs, are increasingly troublesome.

But, for the most part, those problems are being buried by surging demand. Business has, according to many, never been better.

The NFIB survey showed hiring plans setting a new record, while the number of owners declaring the time is right for expansion tied the all-time high reached in May.

Sales, investment and earnings are breaking records. According to NFIB, “August is the ninth consecutive strong month of reported sales gains after years of low or negative numbers.”

If President Obama is puzzled why some give President Trump credit for the surging economy, it comes down to this: During his eight years in office, business leaders never felt confident about the future. It takes confidence to build a new plant or gear up for higher sales.

Today, as lower taxes make firms more profitable and lighter regulations allow them to be more agile and focused on satisfying customers rather than Uncle Sam, managers are more willing to plunge ahead. Last month, a record number of business owners decided to build inventories — making the bet that higher demand is here to stay.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a press release, “At the beginning of this historic run, Index gains were dominated by expectations…Now the Index is dominated by real business activity that makes GDP grow: job creation plans, job openings, string capital spending plans, record inventory investment plans, and earnings.”

This is exactly what the Trump economic plan of lower taxes and lighter regulations was meant to create. It wasn’t a shot in the dark. It had happened before, under President Reagan.
http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4...asp-on-economy

We've had a boom going since June 2009. It was already the third-longest boom in history when Trump was being sworn in. Trump gambled that we could extend the boom further with upper-class tax cuts and deregulatory schemes -- basically the exact same policy direction chosen by George W. Bush when he similarly inherited a long-standing boom from his Democratic predecessor. Unfortunately, that fizzled out for Bush later in his first year, just as had happened with Reagan when he inherited a growth cycle in 1981. So far, things have gone better for Trump -- the Obama boom is still going strong well into his second year. Where he hasn't had better luck than Bush and Reagan is on the budgetary front. Like them, he gambled that we could have big tax cuts without exploding the deficit. As during their presidencies, though, we've quickly moved massively in the direction of red ink.

[Leonthecat]

Thanks Obama!!

HAIL OBAMA!

[cawacko]

We've had a boom going since June 2009. It was already the third-longest boom in history when Trump was being sworn in. Trump gambled that we could extend the boom further with upper-class tax cuts and deregulatory schemes -- basically the exact same policy direction chosen by George W. Bush when he similarly inherited a long-standing boom from his Democratic predecessor. Unfortunately, that fizzled out for Bush later in his first year, just as had happened with Reagan when he inherited a growth cycle in 1981. So far, things have gone better for Trump -- the Obama boom is still going strong well into his second year. Where he hasn't had better luck than Bush and Reagan is on the budgetary front. Like them, he gambled that we could have big tax cuts without exploding the deficit. As during their presidencies, though, we've quickly moved massively in the direction of red ink.

Partisans are going to disagree but let's get our facts straight. George W. Bush took over after the dot com bust and during a recession. That is the opposite of a boom.

The economy was not booming during the Obama years just as it isn't now. We've had a Fed driven equities boom but that's not the economy. The Fed has also created a real estate bubble if you want to call that a boom. On paper we have low unemployment and a shortage of workers in some industries. But a boom? No.

[Nordberg]

Partisans are going to disagree but let's get our facts straight. George W. Bush took over after the dot com bust and during a recession. That is the opposite of a boom.

The economy was not booming during the Obama years just as it isn't now. We've had a Fed driven equities boom but that's not the economy. The Fed has also created a real estate bubble if you want to call that a boom. On paper we have low unemployment and a shortage of workers in some industries. But a boom? No.

the economy is on the exact same trajectory it was one when Daffy took over, All he did on his own was increase the debt and deficits.

[Leonthecat]

the economy is on the exact same trajectory it was one when Daffy took over,

HAIL OBAMA

[Mott the Hoople]

Partisans are going to disagree but let's get our facts straight. George W. Bush took over after the dot com bust and during a recession. That is the opposite of a boom.

The economy was not booming during the Obama years just as it isn't now. We've had a Fed driven equities boom but that's not the economy. The Fed has also created a real estate bubble if you want to call that a boom. On paper we have low unemployment and a shortage of workers in some industries. But a boom? No.

My own anecdotal experience is that the economy, particularly the stock market, responded very strongly to Trumps election. My own ROI on my investments would have been over 20% if December wasn't a horrible month where I lost half of what I gained. It rebounded in January so that I still averaged a 15% ROI for 2017 which is not bad at all....this year has been a dog though and my ROI is under 5% for the year.

The market has been lest exuberant this year due primarily to the tariffs. So that's a time will tell sort of thing but most investors I know are deeply concerned about a trade war that could eliminate the gains made on corporate tax cuts.

Some real indicators of across the board prosperity will be increases in wages, which hasn't happened, and increase in median house hold incomes, which has seen some growth.

In other words I think the story is still out on the Trump economy.

[Oneuli]

Partisans are going to disagree but let's get our facts straight. George W. Bush took over after the dot com bust and during a recession. That is the opposite of a boom.

I absolutely agree we need to get our facts straight. Here are the facts: the economy was growing when Bush took office. That's true if you look at real GDP numbers: not only was there GDP growth in 4th quarter 2000, but it was over four times as rapid as in 3rd quarter 2000. It's also true if you look at the NBER findings -- the NBER is effectively the official determiner of recessions in the US. According to the NBER, the US economy didn't even hit its peak until Bush's third month in office, and a recession was possibly avoidable as late as his ninth month in office.

So, to get our facts straight: Bush took over during a long-standing economic boom, and the first of his two recessions didn't start until months later.

The economy was not booming during the Obama years just as it isn't now.

That depends what you call a "boom" I suppose. I use the term interchangeably with "undergoing an economic growth cycle." By those terms, the Obama economy was booming for most of his presidency -- the recession he inherited (the second of Bush's two recessions) ended in his sixth month in office, and after that we had an uninterrupted growth cycle that continues to this day. If, however, you define "boom" to mean very high sustained rates of growth, or economic growth despite high interest rates, or something like that, you may come to different conclusions.

[Oneuli]

My own anecdotal experience is that the economy, particularly the stock market, responded very strongly to Trumps election.

Anecdotal experience won't tell us much. I mean, if your personal investment scheme was selling stocks short, for example, then a stock market crash would be great. The real test if we're talking about stocks is the performance of the stock market as a whole. For that, I'd go with the S&P 500, since it uses modern indexing (unlike the archaic DOW) and is pretty broad-based. Using that, the annualized growth on Trump's watch has been 15.77%, for a little under 1 2/3 years, versus 13.84% on Obama's watch, for eight years. So, far they're pretty close. Sometimes Trump's average is above Obama's sometimes below, but with a trend line, you'd find it impossible to guess where the transition from one to the other was, since it looks like one long bull market.

[Truth Detector]

If we are in the middle of an economic boom, why is our deficit growing so rapidly, and just what will happen to that deficit once interest rates rise and the economy slows down?

Moron thinks deficits are tied to economic activity. Yes, liberals really that fucking dense.

[Truth Detector]

Thanks Obama!!

Moron thinks Obama is still the President. Yes, liberals really are that pathetic.

[Oneuli]

My own anecdotal experience is that the economy, particularly the stock market, responded very strongly to Trumps election. My own ROI on my investments would have been over 20% if December wasn't a horrible month where I lost half of what I gained. It rebounded in January so that I still averaged a 15% ROI for 2017 which is not bad at all....this year has been a dog though and my ROI is under 5% for the year.

The market has been lest exuberant this year due primarily to the tariffs. So that's a time will tell sort of thing but most investors I know are deeply concerned about a trade war that could eliminate the gains made on corporate tax cuts.

Some real indicators of across the board prosperity will be increases in wages, which hasn't happened, and increase in median house hold incomes, which has seen some growth.

In other words I think the story is still out on the Trump economy.

Also, I don't think the data on median real household incomes is out for 2017, so we don't have any direct evidence yet, on that front, to tell us what's happening on Trump's watch. We know that 2015 and 2016 were two of the best years ever for income growth (in fact, one of them was the all-time best), but I think 2017 comes out sometimes later this month.

[tinfoil]

Partisans are going to disagree but let's get our facts straight. George W. Bush took over after the dot com bust and during a recession. That is the opposite of a boom.

The economy was not booming during the Obama years just as it isn't now. We've had a Fed driven equities boom but that's not the economy. The Fed has also created a real estate bubble if you want to call that a boom. On paper we have low unemployment and a shortage of workers in some industries. But a boom? No.

Some areas are indeed booming. Come to Columbus and you'll see. I've lived in the east, the west, and now the midwest. Never been as busy as here and right now. I'm pricing jobs in hopes it will be too high and they'll call someone else. Still getting the jobs. Pricing floor sanding old floors at $3.25/sft. I thought it was ridiculously high, but three different customers have paid me that kind of money this month. If this is not a boom, I wonder what one would look like.