If forced to bet I'd say the democrats would win the House but Chris Cinchilla also predicted Hillary winning in 2016. He's just doubling down now?
Last edited by Mott the Hoople; 08-16-2018 at 11:54 AM.
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Phantasmal (08-16-2018)
Nate silver was talking about the paradox of plurality last night on twitter and the interesting thing I took away from it is that while the most likely outcome is dems taking the house and republicans keeping the senate, it’s actually more likely that one of those scenarios is wrong.
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It is a start in the right direction. Obviously a third party cannot win, so eliminate the problem from the inside. And that means voting for a Democrat:
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politi...-the-Trump-era
"2Timothy 3 "But know this, that in the last days perilous times will come: For men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, unloving, unforgiving, slanderers, without self-control, brutal, despisers of good, traitors, headstrong, haughty, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having a form of godliness but denying its power. And from such people turn away"
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The Senate is out for Dems. And that's not just a partisan setting-low-expectation thing. The logistics & seats they have to protect are fairly overwhelming.
Anything less than a 2 seat gain would actually be catastrophic for the GOP, imo. Status quo would be amazing for Dems.
I mean you can have your status quo. I don’t give a shit about the house... with the senate we can keep putting judges through and maybe we’ll get a third Supreme Court pick. Maybe Thomas steps down and we get to re up for another 30 years. You can have the house.
Its it’s not impossible for dems to take the senate, just highly unlikely. But 7%? Possible. Again, this is the same lesson I keep trying to teach you, rare things happen all the time. But the more important point is that while dems taking house and pubs keeping senate is the most likely outcome, there is a greater chance collectively that we see pubs keep both houses, dem take both houses, or the super rare head scratcher of pubs keeping house but dems taking senate.
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