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Thread: The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

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    Default The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

    Washington (CNN)With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

    Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

    The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

    Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

    Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

    There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

    At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
    "In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/polit...sis/index.html
    AMERICAN HISTORY ITSELF IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE OF AFRICAN PEOPLE. WE, ALONG WITH THE COURGE AND SACRIFICES OF CONSCIOUS WHITE AMERICANS, LIKE VIOLA LIUZZO, EVERETT DIRKSEN, AND MANY OTHERS, HAVE FOUGHT AND DIED TOGETHER FOR OUR FREEDOM, AND FOR OUR SURVIVAL.

    In America, rights are are not determined by what is just, fair, equitable, honest, nor by what Jesus would do. Rights are determined ONLY by what you can DEMAND.

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    It will make 2006 look like the jv squad
    “If we have to have a choice between being dead and pitied, and being alive with a bad image, we’d rather be alive and have the bad image.”

    — Golda Meir

    Zionism is the movement for the self-determination and statehood for the Jewish people in their ancestral homeland, the land of Israel.







    ברוך השם

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    If there is no huge backlash, this country is totally fucked and can never lead the free world. It will mean that the total idiot hillbilly uneducated
    redneck gullible asshole loser factor is far to ingrained to be remedied by the visceral, visible, total inanity and foolishness that has been displayed without consequence.
    It's that critical. It's like a nuclear bomb nailing DC and people whistling and acting like nothing is wrong. I hope people notice this nuclear war on the USA
    by Republicans.

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    Default

    In really torn over which corporatist party to vote for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Micawber View Post
    If there is no huge backlash, this country is totally fucked and can never lead the free world. It will mean that the total idiot hillbilly uneducated
    redneck gullible asshole loser factor is far to ingrained to be remedied by the visceral, visible, total inanity and foolishness that has been displayed without consequence.
    It's that critical. It's like a nuclear bomb nailing DC and people whistling and acting like nothing is wrong. I hope people notice this nuclear war on the USA
    by Republicans.
    Then we should easily be defeated. Start your "revolution," dickhead.
    Common sense is not a gift, it's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RB 60 View Post
    Then we should easily be defeated. Start your "revolution," dickhead.
    There will be a cabal of Goldman Sachs execs in the white house and rampant corruption "either" way, same as it ever was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fentoine Lum View Post
    There will be a cabal of Goldman Sachs execs in the white house and rampant corruption "either" way, same as it ever was.
    Common sense is not a gift, it's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RB 60 View Post
    Due diligence son, go check it all out for yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fentoine Lum View Post
    Due diligence son, go check it all out for yourself.
    Get back to me when you start making some sense...
    Common sense is not a gift, it's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RB 60 View Post
    Get back to me when you start making some sense...
    If I start "making sense" to the likes of you it's cause for concern, keep hiding from it then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fentoine Lum View Post
    If I start "making sense" to the likes of you it's cause for concern, keep hiding from it then.
    You are one strange...creature.
    Common sense is not a gift, it's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RB 60 View Post
    You are one strange...creature.
    And you're far to common.

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    Only thing growing is the tumor from BACs ass cancer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon Don View Post
    Only thing growing is the tumor from BACs ass cancer

    you are an idiot

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackascoal View Post
    Washington (CNN)With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

    Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

    The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

    Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

    Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

    There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

    At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
    "In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/polit...sis/index.html
    My cynical prediction, and boy should that be taken with a grain of salt, is that Democrats will gain just enough ground to barely lose winning control of either house of Congress.

    I’ve seen nothing to indicate they’ve learned the lesson from 2016. Democrats have been losing elections but winning the culture wars for quite some time now. Dems have done a great job of expanding the scope of individual liberties.

    So why do they lose elections then? Because they have abandoned a focus on expanding the economic liberties, and protecting them, for working and middle class people. Instead of fighting for our fair share of the economic pie, Democrats have been fighting, and winning, for the rights of transgender people to pee in the bathroom of their choice and progressive socialism.

    These are battles Republicans are more than willing to lose as long as they get to keep all the money.

    Trump won election by demonizing immigrants and foreigners and by using economic populism. He co-opted the economic bread and butter kitchen table economics that Democrats abandoned.

    I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Democrats have learned their lesson. What I’ve seen is a Democratic Party doubling down on Identity politics and hoping Trump will be such a slug that he’ll hang him self.

    So what I see is Republicans keeping control of both houses by a narrow margin and, unless something dramatic changes, Trump winning re-election. A combination of progressive socialism and identity politics is a sure loser.
    You're Never Alone With A Schizophrenic!

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