Romney v. Obama - Predictions

Superfreak said:
It is actually the reduction in the labor force that is causing the number to drop dramatically right now. 1.2 million left the labor force last month. That is friggin huge. But it is not something most people will see or read about. So the perception is that things are improving.
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Well, since September U3 has gone from 9% to 8.3%, and U6 has gone from 16.4% to 15.1%. So there's a reduction in unemployment even amongst the broad metrics. However, there was only a .1% reduction in U6 last month, compared to the .2% reduction in U3. So last months figures may have been mostly illusory.
 
Superfreak said:
It is actually the reduction in the labor force that is causing the number to drop dramatically right now. 1.2 million left the labor force last month. That is friggin huge. But it is not something most people will see or read about. So the perception is that things are improving.
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Yeah...that "1.2 million left the labor force" number you guys like to toss around has been debunked as FALSE for some time now.
 
The Dude said:
If the market is up another 5 percent Obama wins. I say Romney needs a 10 percent drop from here.
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I don't think the public has forgotten just how god awful bad our government was run under The Republicans and Bush. That's what makes me gun shy as hell to vote for a republican. Their "No Taxes for any reason" and their "Government is the problem" philosophy has turned into a self fullfilling prophecy for incompetent, corrupt and ineffetive governence. If I vote republican will I be inviting another Iraq or another Katrina or another Banking crises from a government asleep at the wheel? Until Republicans become the party of "good governance" I simply don't feel I can trust them. I'm not going to vote a straight ticket but I definately feel Republicans are less trust worthy then Democrats as a political party.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I must have missed that, do you have a link?....
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First, about that jobs report: all the usual suspects have jumped on the routine BLS population adjustment to claim that the numbers were cooked. The real story here is that the BLS estimates unemployment based on a monthly survey; this tells us what fraction of workers are unemployed. To turn that into a number of unemployed, the BLS estimates total working-age population; but it updates those estimates only once a year. So there's usually a step up or down in the totals each January, signifying nothing.

Back in the Bush years there were a lot of bogus claims of huge job growth reflecting a step up in the population numbers. Now we have Rush Limbaugh, Fox, etc., claiming that a step down somehow implies fake calculations. Still not true. And the thing that makes this so tiring is that they keep trotting out the same old bogosity, no matter how many times it has been refuted. [The New York Times, The Conscience of a Liberal, 2/5/12]

http://mediamatters.org/research/201202060007
 
ZappasGuitar said:
First, about that jobs report: all the usual suspects have jumped on the routine BLS population adjustment to claim that the numbers were cooked. The real story here is that the BLS estimates unemployment based on a monthly survey; this tells us what fraction of workers are unemployed. To turn that into a number of unemployed, the BLS estimates total working-age population; but it updates those estimates only once a year. So there's usually a step up or down in the totals each January, signifying nothing.

Back in the Bush years there were a lot of bogus claims of huge job growth reflecting a step up in the population numbers. Now we have Rush Limbaugh, Fox, etc., claiming that a step down somehow implies fake calculations. Still not true. And the thing that makes this so tiring is that they keep trotting out the same old bogosity, no matter how many times it has been refuted. [The New York Times, The Conscience of a Liberal, 2/5/12]

http://mediamatters.org/research/201202060007
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that doesn't change the fact that if the number is changed, whether it occurred over the course of a month or the course of a year, it effects the percentage.....what exactly do you think has been "debunked"........is it not true that 1.2 million people have left the work force and are no longer counted as unemployed?.....
 
Why isn't conservative humor ever clever? It's always broadside, slip-on-a-banana-peel kind of stuff.

I'm left on most of the issues, but I'd probably vote left most of the time anyway on humor alone...
 
PostmodernProphet said:
that doesn't change the fact that if the number is changed, whether it occurred over the course of a month or the course of a year, it effects the percentage.....what exactly do you think has been "debunked"........is it not true that 1.2 million people have left the work force and are no longer counted as unemployed?.....
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What has changed is the official population of this country.

Using the latest census numbers required an adjustment to the number of people in the work force. That adjustment led to the number being lowered by 1.2 million.
 
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