The reason I belive Perry will win the primary is a combination of factors. 1) He is way ahead in the polls. (see the below link) 2) The voters already know the number two, Romney and he is not exciting anyone. 3) The previous front runners were not creditable canidates, Perry on the other hand has built a national orginization and is the current governor of a major state. 4) Perry has demonstrated the willingness to play the game necessary to win the Republican nomination and has positioned himself as a rabid social conservative which appeals to the red meat of the
Tea Party. 5) Essentally Perry is Backman but has a dick. Backmann suffers by the comparison of her to Palin and regardless of if they will admit it (even to themselves) or not, the conservative voters perfer not to vote for a woman.
http://pollingreport.com/wh12rep.htm