There is a lot of gnashing of teeth and moaning by the left about how the Dems caved to allow the shutdown to end. But is that really the case?
At the moment, the details of the continuing resolution (CR) the Senate will pass to end the shut down aren't completely known. What is known is that it won't be the exact bill passed by the house. This is what the NYTimes is reporting about the bill:
The compromise measure includes a spending package that would fund the government through January, as well as three separate spending bills to cover programs related to agriculture, military construction and legislative agencies for most of 2026. The package also includes a provision that would reverse layoffs of federal workers made during the shutdown and ensure retroactive pay.
It has also been reported that the CR will last through Jan 31. Another part of the deal is that Thune promised the Dems that he would bring up a bill to reinstate the ACA subsidies sometime before the end of December.
This could have several great results for the Dems.
1. The House will have to vote on this bill from the Senate which will result in seating the 218 House member signing on to force the vote to release the Epstein files. Imagine the GOP being forced to vote on the record to NOT release the files after demands from their base for that to happen.
2. The House will actually have to pass the Senate bill without changes and Trump will have to sign it. Failure of either of those will result in clear blame for the GOP. The Dems in the Senate are not required to vote for any House changes to the bill.
3. Trump will have to sign the bill that revokes all the firings his administration is doing in the last month making Trump look weak.
4. This gives the GOP only until the end of January to pass all the appropriation bills which they have not been able to pass so far. With taking weeks off for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years, they will likely only have about 4 weeks to pass those bills. If they don't pass them, they will have to try to pass another CR before the end of January to prevent another partial shutdown.
5. If another shutdown occurs not only will it clearly be the fault of the GOP, but the current legislation funds SNAP through the agriculture funding through the end of the year so that will not be a problem for Dems during a future shutdown. They will have no reason to compromise next shutdown.
6. If Thune reneges on his promise to allow a vote on the Dem bill, the Dems can point to that as proof that the GOP can not be trusted.
7. The increases in health insurance costs will be in place and the GOP will have either voted to not prevent it or avoided addressing the issue at all making them solely responsible.
The only way the GOP can possibly save themselves is to somehow prevent a shutdown next year by passing appropriations that they can defend. In order to get that through the Senate they will more than likely have to be through the reconciliation process which clearly places all the blame on the GOP for anything that is unpopular.
Personally, I don't see any way for the GOP to avoid another shutdown in February of next year without them giving some major concessions to the Democrats. Voters may not remember the shutdown from a year ago next November, but if there is an extended shutdown in February they certainly will remember and know exactly who is to blame.
At the moment, the details of the continuing resolution (CR) the Senate will pass to end the shut down aren't completely known. What is known is that it won't be the exact bill passed by the house. This is what the NYTimes is reporting about the bill:
The compromise measure includes a spending package that would fund the government through January, as well as three separate spending bills to cover programs related to agriculture, military construction and legislative agencies for most of 2026. The package also includes a provision that would reverse layoffs of federal workers made during the shutdown and ensure retroactive pay.
It has also been reported that the CR will last through Jan 31. Another part of the deal is that Thune promised the Dems that he would bring up a bill to reinstate the ACA subsidies sometime before the end of December.
This could have several great results for the Dems.
1. The House will have to vote on this bill from the Senate which will result in seating the 218 House member signing on to force the vote to release the Epstein files. Imagine the GOP being forced to vote on the record to NOT release the files after demands from their base for that to happen.
2. The House will actually have to pass the Senate bill without changes and Trump will have to sign it. Failure of either of those will result in clear blame for the GOP. The Dems in the Senate are not required to vote for any House changes to the bill.
3. Trump will have to sign the bill that revokes all the firings his administration is doing in the last month making Trump look weak.
4. This gives the GOP only until the end of January to pass all the appropriation bills which they have not been able to pass so far. With taking weeks off for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years, they will likely only have about 4 weeks to pass those bills. If they don't pass them, they will have to try to pass another CR before the end of January to prevent another partial shutdown.
5. If another shutdown occurs not only will it clearly be the fault of the GOP, but the current legislation funds SNAP through the agriculture funding through the end of the year so that will not be a problem for Dems during a future shutdown. They will have no reason to compromise next shutdown.
6. If Thune reneges on his promise to allow a vote on the Dem bill, the Dems can point to that as proof that the GOP can not be trusted.
7. The increases in health insurance costs will be in place and the GOP will have either voted to not prevent it or avoided addressing the issue at all making them solely responsible.
The only way the GOP can possibly save themselves is to somehow prevent a shutdown next year by passing appropriations that they can defend. In order to get that through the Senate they will more than likely have to be through the reconciliation process which clearly places all the blame on the GOP for anything that is unpopular.
Personally, I don't see any way for the GOP to avoid another shutdown in February of next year without them giving some major concessions to the Democrats. Voters may not remember the shutdown from a year ago next November, but if there is an extended shutdown in February they certainly will remember and know exactly who is to blame.
