Tobytone
Verified User
The plane was clearly coming apart from some sort of mid-flight explosion, or maybe it got hit by a bird or a drone, but I'm hearing that's unlikely for various reasons. Could've been a catastrophic engine failure too. There are some spectators throwing around ideas like it was a bomb or a shoulder-mounted rocket. I mean, a bomb seems more plausible than a rocket, but still...
I'm wondering, and I haven't heard anyone mention this, but what about the possibility that an oxygen or nitrous gas tank used for medical care on board might have exploded after an unnoticed leak was happening for an unknown amount of time and some kind of electrical failure provided the spark? It's a stretch at best, so I asked Grok for a plausible scenario, searching for a cause.
Here's what I got:
Plausible Scenario:
An oxygen leak develops from a tank or connection used for a patient on a medical transport plane while doctors are actively monitoring and working on the patient. The leak goes unnoticed in the busy medical environment, leading to an increase in oxygen concentration. An electrical malfunction, such as a spark from a short circuit in medical or aircraft equipment, ignites flammable materials within this oxygen-rich environment. The fire, fueled by the extra oxygen, spreads quickly in the confined space of the aircraft, leading to an explosion due to pressure build-up or secondary gas ignition.
Estimated Minimum Time for Explosion to Occur:
Leak Detection Time: The leak might go unnoticed for several minutes, especially if doctors are focused on the patient. Let's estimate 5-10 minutes for the leak to become significant enough to increase oxygen levels noticeably.
Oxygen Buildup: Assuming a small but continuous leak, it could take another 5-15 minutes for the oxygen concentration to reach a level where combustion becomes significantly more likely than in normal air.
Ignition: An electrical fault could happen at any time but let's conservatively estimate 1-5 minutes from when the environment becomes dangerously oxygen-rich for an ignition source to occur, especially if equipment is in constant use.
Fire Spread: Once ignited, the fire could spread very quickly in an oxygen-rich environment, leading to an explosion in as little as 1-3 minutes due to the rapid combustion, heat, and pressure build-up.
I think I heard the plane was only flying for about 30 seconds, but that might have been an exaggerated estimate without actual data.
I'm wondering, and I haven't heard anyone mention this, but what about the possibility that an oxygen or nitrous gas tank used for medical care on board might have exploded after an unnoticed leak was happening for an unknown amount of time and some kind of electrical failure provided the spark? It's a stretch at best, so I asked Grok for a plausible scenario, searching for a cause.
Here's what I got:
Plausible Scenario:
An oxygen leak develops from a tank or connection used for a patient on a medical transport plane while doctors are actively monitoring and working on the patient. The leak goes unnoticed in the busy medical environment, leading to an increase in oxygen concentration. An electrical malfunction, such as a spark from a short circuit in medical or aircraft equipment, ignites flammable materials within this oxygen-rich environment. The fire, fueled by the extra oxygen, spreads quickly in the confined space of the aircraft, leading to an explosion due to pressure build-up or secondary gas ignition.
Estimated Minimum Time for Explosion to Occur:
Leak Detection Time: The leak might go unnoticed for several minutes, especially if doctors are focused on the patient. Let's estimate 5-10 minutes for the leak to become significant enough to increase oxygen levels noticeably.
Oxygen Buildup: Assuming a small but continuous leak, it could take another 5-15 minutes for the oxygen concentration to reach a level where combustion becomes significantly more likely than in normal air.
Ignition: An electrical fault could happen at any time but let's conservatively estimate 1-5 minutes from when the environment becomes dangerously oxygen-rich for an ignition source to occur, especially if equipment is in constant use.
Fire Spread: Once ignited, the fire could spread very quickly in an oxygen-rich environment, leading to an explosion in as little as 1-3 minutes due to the rapid combustion, heat, and pressure build-up.
I think I heard the plane was only flying for about 30 seconds, but that might have been an exaggerated estimate without actual data.