Another one of your fearless and completely wrong predictions, sicko? I'm not even sold on a recession. Still way to much liquidity out there. Keep your day job, whatever that is. I hope they don't drug test.
Main Street is convinced that a recession will hit the U.S. economy this year
- Thread starter Grokmaster
- Start date
Another one of your fearless and completely wrong predictions, sicko? I'm not even sold on a recession. Still way to much liquidity out there. Keep your day job, whatever that is. I hope they don't drug test.
Plenty of stupidity in here, too. ^^^^
Largest production dropoff since the end of WW2...which is an OMINOUS indicator.
To avoid a recession at this point ,will take an economic miracle, which is not likely under Pres.Moron and the Dunce-O-crats.
It might happen. Interest rates have already been raised three quarters of a point from where they were before Biden, and the Fed is signaling they'll go even higher. That's fairly rapid tightening. The Fed is trying to cool the economy down, and it's entirely possible they'll overshoot, as they've done in the past.
The last five recessions the NBER declared started Feb 2020, Dec 2007, Mar 2001, Jul 1990, and Jul of 1981. In each case, there was a big increase in unemployment rates, and the NBER back-dated the start of the recession either to a few months after things started to worsen, or to the month before they started to worsen. For example, in the two months after Feb 2020, unemployment rates shot up 11.2 points. If we see a rise in unemployment rates in the coming months, it's quite possible the NBER will declare a recession and back-date it to the first glimmer of weakness. But, obviously, we're not there yet. We have 3.6% unemployment, which is near record lows, and it hasn't been rising.
On a side note, did you notice something about those five dates? They all happened during Republican presidencies. Although there are plenty of Democrats who never led our nation into recession (Biden, Obama, Clinton, LBJ, and JFK, at least), Republicans generally lead us into between one and three recessions before leaving office. The only exception I can think of, ever, is Ford, and that's only because he inherited a recession that stuck around for much of his presidency, so that by the time we emerged from that, there were only a few months left to go with him in office.
Can you name even one time you were right about the economy welfare boy? Just one.
Geeko Sportivo
Verified User
Crybaby thread alert!
From "Build Back Better" to food shortages, crippling inflation, and brutal energy costs, in a mere 15 months.
Nice work, Brandon, and the Dunce-o-crats !!!
Main Street is convinced that a recession will hit the U.S. economy this year
POINTS
On Wall Street, more than half of investment and economic professionals think the Fed’s attempt to combat inflation by raising interest rates and running off the balance sheet will eventually cause a recession.
Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated on Wednesday his belief that a “soft” or “soft-ish” landing can be achieved without the most hawkish central bank policy decisions.
But on Main Street, eight in 10 small business owners are convinced the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year, according to the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey.
Main Street and Wall Street are often at a distance when it comes to the state of the economy. The likelihood of a recession hitting in 2022 is the latest example. Both camps are bearish, but small business owners are leading the way in negative sentiment — by a notable margin.
Wall Street has been consumed with the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat the inflation it pegged wrong for too long, and the risk that interest rate hikes will lead to a recession. A survey earlier this week from CNBC found that more than half of economists and investment professionals expect the Fed to fail in its mission to engineer a “soft landing” for the economy.
The stock market breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday, with stocks surging after Fed chair Jerome Powell said that a more aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points is not being considered, and that the central bank remains convinced it can bring inflation down without crashing the economy..
The market was giving back those brief gains on Thursday, and on Main Street, the central bank messaging was never likely to cause any short-term relief. Eight in ten small business owners expect a recession to occur this year, according to the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q2 2022. Inflation remains the top concern for small business owners polled by CNBC and their business outlook is negative. The survey finds few small business owners seeing any bright spots in the current economy: just 6% rate the current state as excellent and 18% as good, while 31% rate it as fair and 44% rate it as poor.
~ “There just isn’t a lot of optimism on Main Street these days,” said Laura Wronski, senior manager of research science at Momentive, which conducts the survey for CNBC.
~ Small business survey results can be influenced by politics, with the community skewing conservative, but economic worries are high among all small business owners. Those who identify as Republicans or lean to the GOP are leading the bearish outlook, with 91% expecting a recession, but among those who are Democrats or lean to the Democratic party, it is still 66% that expect a recession this year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/main-street-is-more-sure-than-wall-street-a-recession-is-coming.html
We are already in a depression. Predicting a recession is sort of pointless now.
The economy has been depressed for years. We are in a depression. It was caused by Democrats.
The economy has not been right for most of my lifetime, the elites resorted to lies tricks and mirrors to get along (while refusing needed reforms) but now it all comes crashing down.
It was everyone, the citizens refused our duty as well, we told power to satisfy our appetites and we did not much or at all care how they did it.
Buckle Up.
No, the Fed is trying to reduce inflation...the inflation that it and the Democrats caused. Won't work. They risk uncontrolled deflation, which would be ruinous to the government.
The Fed has lost control. They are out of options.
Not declared by the NBER.
Denying the shutdown of the economy by Democrats isn't going wash, dude.
Argument from randU fallacy. Making up numbers isn't going to wash either.
Argument from randU fallacy. Lie.
Lie.
Sorry dude, you don't get to blame Ford for Carter's economic disasters.
gfm7175
Jesus is LORD!
It takes a loooooong time for the so-called "experts" to catch up...
Agreed. They do that by choking economic growth.
What makes you think that? The most recent month had inflation happening at an annualized rate of 3.977%. As a point of comparison, the average over the prior half century was 3.877%. So, in April we were talking about nearly average inflation. Now, obviously, there was higher inflation in other recent months, and that has caused cumulative high inflation over the course of the last year. But if they'd "lost control" we'd expect accelerating inflation, where right now it looks like rate hikes are working.
They have lots of options, since interest rates are still far below historical averages. It's not like we've already got rates so high they're financial markets can't work, so the Fed has no other tools to use. They can raise interest rates several full points and still not be above the range of modern rates.
I'm not sure what you're saying here. Yes, the NBER declared those. Specifically, the NBER has a business cycle committee that declared these things, which is what financial analysts, economists, and the business press typically refers to when they talk about the start and end date of recessions.
What shutdown do you mean?
What numbers do you think I made up, specifically?
What statement, specifically, do you think was a lie, and what evidence do you see that it was a lie?
What makes you think that? If it would be helpful, I can link you to the NBER's business cycle data page, so you can confirm for yourself.
I didn't try to do anything of the sort. You seem to have become confused. My argument is pretty simple, really: although Ford is the only Republican I can think of who didn't lead the nation into a recession, he had very little time in which to do so, since he was only president for a short time after the Second Nixon Recession ended. You obviously can't lead a nation into recession if they're already in one.
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Define 'right'. The wage/wealth gap began widening in earnest during the Reagan Administration, and it continues to widen. That is a dangerous place for an economy. However, ITN's statement regarding depression is objectively false (and stupid), and yours is completely subjective and completely lacks any nuance. But I shouldn't be surprised. You appear to know absolutely nothing about pretty much everything.
The Fed doesn't control economic growth.
Argument from randU. Random numbers are not data.
Conclusion based on random numbers. Attempted proof by randU.
Lie.
Which has been happening.
No. The stock market is beginning to crash.
None.
Not about interest rates or prime loans.
False authority fallacy.
What rock have YOU been hiding under?
RQAA.
RQAA.
False authority fallacy. RQAA.
Lie.
Semantics fallacy. Go learn English.
No such thing. Buzzword fallacy.
Attempted conclusion based on buzzword. Void argument fallacy.
Lie. Depression is a stalled or contracting economy for several years.
Incorrect. Go learn English. There were objective and subjective portions to his statement.
He is not trying to nuance.
Bulverism fallacy.
No argument presented.
Ah, back to brainless trolling, I see. Well, give me a heads up if you ever find your balls and feel up to engaging substantively. I won't waste my time with this garbage.
Speaking of brainless trolling....
Your surrender is accepted, as you are immediately reduced to childish ad homs; no more obvious admission of defeat exists.