In another thread, we were discussing the way that, on average, the country has had a much better private-sector job creation rate during Democratic presidencies than Republican ones. It got me thinking: is there ANY indicator you can think of where performance hasn't been better, on average, during Democratic presidencies?
Famously, the country has MUCH higher real GDP growth rates when Democrats are president, stronger median real income growth, and better stock market performance. Also, it's well established that while there has been a small net increase in poverty rates during Republican presidencies, there's been a gigantic net decrease in those rates during Democratic presidencies. Dem eras also look better when it comes to the change in the share of Americans covered by health insurance.
But surely there must be SOME indicator that looks better for the Republicans, right?
My first thought was maybe crime, since Republicans talk a good game when it comes to "law and order," and have been eager to incarcerate a large share of Americans to try to achieve that. There are two ways we could score that: average rates or change in rates.
Using the murder rate as a proxy, the average murder rate during Republican presidencies is 7.5 (going back to 1960 and up to 2020). The average during Democratic presidencies is 6.3.
Calculating it, instead, by the change in rates, on average murder rates fell 0.05 points during Democratic presidencies, and rose 0.6 points during Republican presidencies.
So, whichever way you calculate that, Democratic presidential eras look better.
https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_intentional_homicide_rate
The next thought that occurred to me is inflation, since Republicans are hawkish on that. Again, there are two main ways you could score that: the average inflation rate per year, or the change in the rate of inflation from the start of a presidency to the end. The former looks better for the Democrats (3.17%, average, versus 4.16% for Republicans). The latter, though, looks better for Republicans (largely on the strength of Reagan inheriting high rates and leaving fairly low ones).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA#0
So, out of all the indicators I've thought of, Dems look better on all of them except inflation.... and that one depends on how you score it. Are there any others you can think of that look better for the Republicans?
Famously, the country has MUCH higher real GDP growth rates when Democrats are president, stronger median real income growth, and better stock market performance. Also, it's well established that while there has been a small net increase in poverty rates during Republican presidencies, there's been a gigantic net decrease in those rates during Democratic presidencies. Dem eras also look better when it comes to the change in the share of Americans covered by health insurance.
But surely there must be SOME indicator that looks better for the Republicans, right?
My first thought was maybe crime, since Republicans talk a good game when it comes to "law and order," and have been eager to incarcerate a large share of Americans to try to achieve that. There are two ways we could score that: average rates or change in rates.
Using the murder rate as a proxy, the average murder rate during Republican presidencies is 7.5 (going back to 1960 and up to 2020). The average during Democratic presidencies is 6.3.
Calculating it, instead, by the change in rates, on average murder rates fell 0.05 points during Democratic presidencies, and rose 0.6 points during Republican presidencies.
So, whichever way you calculate that, Democratic presidential eras look better.
https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_intentional_homicide_rate
The next thought that occurred to me is inflation, since Republicans are hawkish on that. Again, there are two main ways you could score that: the average inflation rate per year, or the change in the rate of inflation from the start of a presidency to the end. The former looks better for the Democrats (3.17%, average, versus 4.16% for Republicans). The latter, though, looks better for Republicans (largely on the strength of Reagan inheriting high rates and leaving fairly low ones).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA#0
So, out of all the indicators I've thought of, Dems look better on all of them except inflation.... and that one depends on how you score it. Are there any others you can think of that look better for the Republicans?
