as noted in the title, the bubble is burstING not burst.
I try to look at the horizon to find advantages before they are already gone. Your articles match this.
Housing Bubble is bursting
- Thread starter Celticguy
- Start date
as noted in the title, the bubble is burstING not burst.
I try to look at the horizon to find advantages before they are already gone. Your articles match this.
cawacko
Well-known member
Your position in the OP was homeowners should sell now. I state this not as a personal thing rather just if we were having a beer and having this discussion, I’d be like WTF?! The costs associated with doing so, and then moving, and then renting, and then hoping there is a massive housing depression to make it all worthwhile is not something that registers with me.
There’s the whole argument that your home is not an investment. The Fed has kind of f’d that but it was a legitimate argument previously. But even if we have a recession I still think argument you must sell today is extremely flawed.
I did qualify it with that "if". Clearly the best thing to do financially thinking is to sit tight. If you stand to see your (and my) home devalue significantly there is some justification to sell it at or near the high. Obviously this is going to cost you but desperate times AN call for desperate measures.
The main thing is to not be surprised.
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
It's not driven in total by federal policy, but that has a role in things. Demand is highest for single family homes right now and there's nowhere near enough on the market. The money for developers is in multi-family units because of federal subsidies and tax breaks. I'm doing one apartment complex right now (rewiring etc.) because the owners are getting a huge tax break to upgrade the energy efficiency of their units from the government. Basically, they get to do it nearly free from their POV because somebody else is paying for it via the government.
Oh, they are also raising rent on the refurbished units because they're upgraded. The last one completed, a 2 BR unit went from $1100 to $1900 a month.
As for raising rent when you have vacancies, if those vacancies are persistent you raise rent on the persons you have already renting to help cover the loss on the units not rented. If the vacancies aren't persistent then you don't have to because the vacancies will rent in the near future.
cawacko
Well-known member
I'm honestly fascinated by your last paragraph. In the scenario you describe rental rates would never drop - ever. Take San Francisco for instance. A number of people moved out of the City during the pandemic and we saw rental rates drop quite a bit. But your argument is it shouldn't have worked that way, that owners would actually raise rates even though people were leaving the City.
I work in CRE. It would be like my firm purchasing an office building and underwriting rates at $25.00/sq.ft. but then rates dropped to $20/sq.ft. But I would tell my tenants that they have to pay $25/sq.ft. (because that's what I underwrote it at). They would laugh in my face and say "bye" we're going to a building down the street.
You are arguing the opposite essentially of supply and demand determining prices.
Other than the fact no one wants Rubles, so no one would have Rubles to pay him.
We are not seeing food shortages around here. I thought your rural areas would be immune to food shortages, but I guess your claims were wrong.
Monad Portal
Was it me?
if they want gas they'll figure out how to do things putin/russia wants.
its the same as the petrodollar.
do you understand the petrodollar?
Monad Portal
Was it me?
research terms:
fiat currency
bourse
petrodollar
internationalist fascism.
The U.S. Dollar And Oil Relationship Is Changing
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Historically, the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar.
The explanation for this relationship is based on two well-known premises.
A barrel of oil is priced in U.S. dollars across the world. When the U.S. dollar is strong, you need fewer U.S. dollars to buy a barrel of oil. When the U.S. dollar is weak, the price of oil is higher in dollar terms.
The United States has historically been a net importer of oil. Rising oil prices cause the United States trade balance deficit to rise as more dollars are needed to be sent abroad.
The former still holds true today, the latter….not so much. Due primarily to the success of horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the U.S. shale revolution has dramatically increased domestic petroleum production.
In fact, the United States became a net exporter of refined petroleum products in 2011, and has now has become THE largest producer of crude oil overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia!
Top Oil Producers
According to the Energy Information and Administration (EIA), the United States is now about 90% self-sufficient in terms of total energy consumption.
The technological breakthrough of fracking has disrupted the status quo in the oil market, much like how Kylie Jenner’s Lip Kits disrupted the status quo in the cosmetic industry.
As U.S. oil exports have increased, oil imports have decreased. This means that higher oil prices no longer contribute to a higher U.S. trade deficit, and actually helps to decrease it.
As a result, we’ve seen the historically strong inverse relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar is becoming more unstable.
Dollar Oil Correlation
Over the past eight years, the rolling 6-month correlation coefficient was mostly negative but that’s starting to change.
Considering the new dynamics of the global energy market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this historically negative correlation spend more time in positive territory.
The relationship between oil and the United States seems to be changing, reflecting the country’s growing role in the global oil industry.
Is the dollar becoming a petrocurrency? A term given to currencies of countries like Canada, Russia, and Norway that export so much oil, that oil revenues make up a large part of their economy.
The United States has become the new swing producer of oil, meaning that its production levels hold the most influence over global oil prices. Before the shale revolution, it was Saudi Arabia.
The U.S. may start to trade more like a petrocurrency in the years to come. As the US continues to grow the share of oil exports over imports, revenue from oil will play a greater role in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. dollar may start behaving like a petrocurrency….meaning when oil prices goes up, so does the currency.
Understanding why the dollar has historically traded inversely to the price of oil and why the correlation has weakened recently can help traders make more informed trading decisions as the global economy continues to evolve.
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/us-dollar-and-oil-relationship-changing
fiat currency
bourse
petrodollar
internationalist fascism.
The U.S. Dollar And Oil Relationship Is Changing
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Historically, the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar.
The explanation for this relationship is based on two well-known premises.
A barrel of oil is priced in U.S. dollars across the world. When the U.S. dollar is strong, you need fewer U.S. dollars to buy a barrel of oil. When the U.S. dollar is weak, the price of oil is higher in dollar terms.
The United States has historically been a net importer of oil. Rising oil prices cause the United States trade balance deficit to rise as more dollars are needed to be sent abroad.
The former still holds true today, the latter….not so much. Due primarily to the success of horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the U.S. shale revolution has dramatically increased domestic petroleum production.
In fact, the United States became a net exporter of refined petroleum products in 2011, and has now has become THE largest producer of crude oil overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia!
Top Oil Producers
According to the Energy Information and Administration (EIA), the United States is now about 90% self-sufficient in terms of total energy consumption.
The technological breakthrough of fracking has disrupted the status quo in the oil market, much like how Kylie Jenner’s Lip Kits disrupted the status quo in the cosmetic industry.
As U.S. oil exports have increased, oil imports have decreased. This means that higher oil prices no longer contribute to a higher U.S. trade deficit, and actually helps to decrease it.
As a result, we’ve seen the historically strong inverse relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar is becoming more unstable.
Dollar Oil Correlation
Over the past eight years, the rolling 6-month correlation coefficient was mostly negative but that’s starting to change.
Considering the new dynamics of the global energy market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this historically negative correlation spend more time in positive territory.
The relationship between oil and the United States seems to be changing, reflecting the country’s growing role in the global oil industry.
Is the dollar becoming a petrocurrency? A term given to currencies of countries like Canada, Russia, and Norway that export so much oil, that oil revenues make up a large part of their economy.
The United States has become the new swing producer of oil, meaning that its production levels hold the most influence over global oil prices. Before the shale revolution, it was Saudi Arabia.
The U.S. may start to trade more like a petrocurrency in the years to come. As the US continues to grow the share of oil exports over imports, revenue from oil will play a greater role in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. dollar may start behaving like a petrocurrency….meaning when oil prices goes up, so does the currency.
Understanding why the dollar has historically traded inversely to the price of oil and why the correlation has weakened recently can help traders make more informed trading decisions as the global economy continues to evolve.
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/us-dollar-and-oil-relationship-changing
Europe lacks the infrastructure to receive LNP from the US. It will take a decade to get it up and running. Until then, Europe is dependent on Russia for its oil and gas.
Monad Portal
Was it me?
we have a lot of crude too right? or no?
Say goodbye to the petrodollar. The US shot itself in the foot.
Monad Portal
Was it me?
luckily we have another one.
You truly believe they are going to abandon the very stable dollar?
History shows us that a fiat currency foot eventually fails. How much longer can the US stand on monopoly money?
The world has been moving away from the dollar for quite some time. The US solution to that is more war.
Monad Portal
Was it me?
the profligate printing of our ruling class has guaranteed they will.
Monad Portal
Was it me?
These self righteous know it all libs have no fucking clue.
Girl power!
Girl power!
Lol, aren’t you perky this morning.