Here’s the analysis which is being cited favorably by Zaid, Moss, and others on legal Twitter. It ends (TL/DR) with a supposition — an opinion — that Sandmann may have ended up with a ballpark guess of about $50,000. That’s a far cry from his original asking price of $250 million.
When asked about the thread, Lin Wood, an attorney for Sandmann, told Law&Crime he made it his “practice not to respond to uninformed, errant nonsense.” He noted that the settlement was confidential and that he could not comment on it, but said “questions about confidentiality and the timing of the settlement will have to be directed to others.”
The Twitter thread in question posits that though a judge tossed most of Sandmann’s case, the few remaining claims that remained would not have survived discovery. But since the claims were allowed to remain alive, it would have cost $200,000 or so to defend them. That’s why an insurance carrier, in this supposed version of events, probably threw a lowball offer to prevent spending even more to get the entire case tossed. In other words, the settlement was a business decision that had nothing to do with the merits of Sandmann’s case.