Another fake Democrat poll exposed

Cohort said:
it's important to note that that 92-8 number (which was wrong) was not a poll, it was an extrapolation of data.
Click to expand...

Call it what you want. Everything these "experts" told us about that election was HILARIOUSLY wrong, as usual. And now you want to act like the same kind of condescending douche bag that turned this country against the elitist snobs of the left, assuring us that these discredited frauds really do know what they're talking about...as they insist a dementia-suffering racist pedophile is running away with the election so we can return to the garbage Obama economy that no one wants back.

Do you peddle astrology too? :laugh:

 
christiefan915 said:
Why do you think only Democrats follow polls?
Click to expand...

Because only Democrats blindly trust authority (because they never comprehend human nature or learn from history), hence them relentlessly mocking and smearing conservatives for YEARS for questioning the FBI's obviously phony bullshit against Flynn, only to now be THEMSELVES humiliated by the facts...and by their own refusal to think for themselves.

christiefan915 said:
Go back and read the posts here where righties are saying trump has his highest ratings ever, according to the polls.
Click to expand...

Why? Noting that even wildly biased left-wing polls show support for Trump in no way contradicts their argument. You literally just aren't smart enough to comprehend it.

:laugh:

 
Cohort said:
I would say it was wrong because it vastly overestimated clintons chances, most metrics never had her anywhere near that high. silver had her only at like 68%
to say someone is 92% to win when they are predicated to have a +2 margin nationally is just totally foolish
Click to expand...

The specific election only happened once, so we really will never know what the chances for that specific election is. But the models have delivered odds in thousands of elections that taken as a group has been correct. There is a chance that this time they were wrong... But it is far from proven. In fact, right now it is just an opinion that you have with nothing to support it.
 
Arminius said:
Another provably fake poll. This time, it's Quinnipac. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.

This is why you ALWAYS click on the methodology and see how they got their numbers. This is the same kind of outright lie that caused people to think Hillary had a 92% chance of beating President Trump.

View attachment 15384

Biden Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump, New Poll Shows

Imagine the headlines conservatives could fabricate by wildly over-sampling registered Republicans like this:

-Majority of Americans want Obama administration officials prosecuted for treason

-Those who want to finish building the wall have a "double-digit lead" over those who do not

-American people overwhelmingly want power-abusing Democrat judges impeached and purged from federal judiciary

:laugh:
Click to expand...

Should we be surprised? ;)
 
To make it all more complex, the odds that were given for the election were the odds as they were at the time of the polls. Comey changed those odds at the last second by announcing an investigation that ended up going nowhere.

So the election that the odds were given for did not even happen once, much less multiple times. What were the odds of the Nazis winning the Battle of France? It happened once, so it is impossible to know for sure. What were the odds of the Soviets winning WWIII in Europe? It did not even happen once.
 
Concart said:
I think 538 had more reasonable odds (74% Clinton). You have hit on the stupidity of the argument being made about polling in 2016, In fact, the final polls were fairly accurate, predicting a Clinton win by 3.3%. She actually won the popular vote by 2.1%. So when a member of the cult uses some four year old pundit predictions to cast doubt on all polling, it makes me laugh over the abject stupidity of the argument.
Click to expand...

Dumbest argument on the planet: She actually won the popular vote by 2.1%.

:eyeroll:
 
Walt said:
To make it all more complex, the odds that were given for the election were the odds as they were at the time of the polls. Comey changed those odds at the last second by announcing an investigation that ended up going nowhere.

So the election that the odds were given for did not even happen once, much less multiple times. What were the odds of the Nazis winning the Battle of France? It happened once, so it is impossible to know for sure. What were the odds of the Soviets winning WWIII in Europe? It did not even happen once.
Click to expand...

Blah, blah, fucking blah. Take the bet! https://www.justplainpolitics.com/s...berals-are-strongly-encouraged-to-participate
 
Phantasmal said:
You know Trump is in trouble when Rasmussen has him at 42% approval

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Click to expand...

obama was also around the 40s in his first term around this time, in fact recently trump was even higher than obama was in this particular point in their terms. approval ratings aren't a 1:1 translation to who people will vote for, because it's not trump vs. no one. it's trump vs. someone else. case in point, trump won in 2016 with approval ratings in the 40's. free lesson from me, the poll expert.
 
Arminius said:
Another provably fake poll. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.
Click to expand...

All good polls over-sample Democrats because more people identify as Democrats than Republicans. This is illustrated by the 3% Hillary Clinton lead in the 2016 polls which proved accurate.

A good poll is representative of the national population (of likely voters).
 
Arminius said:
Another provably fake poll. This time, it's Quinnipac. They had to over-sample registered Democrats by 10% to manufacture their new claim about the child-molesting Alzheimer's patient now having "double-digit lead." They sampled 36% registered Democrats and 26% registered Republicans to make this happen.

This is why you ALWAYS click on the methodology and see how they got their numbers. This is the same kind of outright lie that caused people to think Hillary had a 92% chance of beating President Trump.

View attachment 15384

Biden Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump, New Poll Shows

Imagine the headlines conservatives could fabricate by wildly over-sampling registered Republicans like this:

-Majority of Americans want Obama administration officials prosecuted for treason

-Those who want to finish building the wall have a "double-digit lead" over those who do not

-American people overwhelmingly want power-abusing Democrat judges impeached and purged from federal judiciary

:laugh:
Click to expand...

The 'methodology' is a lie much of the time as well. It has to be a verifiable methodology, an it has to show how bias was removed during data collection, the raw data itself must be available, the entire set of questions used, whether its 'data' or 'made up shit' and how that can be verified, the variance must be declared and justified, the margin of error calculation must be shown, and selection by randN must be done up on the data. Anyone quoting a poll as the future is bogus. Statistical mathematics does not have the power of prediction any more than probability mathematics, and for the same reason.
 
Concart said:
I can't dig it up, because it's a lie. Your unwillingness to back up your claim pretty much establishes that it's a lie. The survey reflects the current political affiliation of a random sample of adults, therefore it can't 'oversample'. You are not only a liar, you are hopelessly ignorant about how polling works. Your idiotic explanation for why you don't post sources is transparent. You don't post them because they don't exist.
Click to expand...

Bull. The 'survey' is fiction, just all the other news polls.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top