RCP now has Clinton < 2 points advantage

tsuke said:
ive always said its about turnout from the start :)

my biggest indicator is el rato is now campaigning for trump. That guy would not be doing it if he didnt smell victory.
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nah el rato knows he alienated the anti-establishment, anti-elitist republicans by warring with trump. Making peace is his best move because if trump loses cruz has begun to make amends for a 2020 run, and he can say "hey guys I helped trump, I didn't betray him"
 
What I don't understand about the election is that Douchebag Donald is supposedly winning amongst independents by about 10 points, plus Crooked Hillary has her problem with Dems who are "unenthusiastic" about her. How is he not well ahead in the polls? Are independents a shrinking percentage of the electorate?
 
Football Jersey said:
What I don't understand about the election is that Douchebag Donald is supposedly winning amongst independents by about 10 points, plus Crooked Hillary has her problem with Dems who are "unenthusiastic" about her. How is he not well ahead in the polls? Are independents a shrinking percentage of the electorate?
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the demographics favor the dems. She's trying to push her base -same as Obama.The black turnout is down,but the Latinos are up. White votes are up

Independents are still a large chunk -maybe bigger then ever (don't know).

Also don't forget the #nevertrumps -He's trying to get the Republicans to come home
 
Football Jersey said:
What I don't understand about the election is that Douchebag Donald is supposedly winning amongst independents by about 10 points, plus Crooked Hillary has her problem with Dems who are "unenthusiastic" about her. How is he not well ahead in the polls? Are independents a shrinking percentage of the electorate?
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1) yes independents are shrinking

2) some of the national/popular lead skews things because clinton over performs in states she doesn't need to, like california and new york. In dense population centers she can rack up tons of more popular support but that still doesn't necessarily translate into an electoral college advantage (at least, not on a 1:1 scale)
 
Thing1 said:
He can still pull it off; they posted 6 different scenarios on CNN today. But he would definitely have to pick off some unexpected states.

It's a pretty weird election. Outside of their rabid core support, enthusiasm for both candidates is pretty low, so anything that comes out in the next few days could tilt the race one way or the other. I doubt they measure it, but this will probably be a record year for people making up their minds on the way to the voting booth.

Hillary should win, though. Trump really is a complete nutcase - I think that impression will prevail in the minds of many.
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Trump is going to have to turn at least one blue state red to win the elcetion, and frankly, that just ain't happening.
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
nah el rato knows he alienated the anti-establishment, anti-elitist republicans by warring with trump. Making peace is his best move because if trump loses cruz has begun to make amends for a 2020 run, and he can say "hey guys I helped trump, I didn't betray him"
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if that were true zodiac killer would have been campaigning before. He smells something in the air and is angling to be the heir apparent. (hes not)
 
im ready to add nevada to my predictions now.

Nevada, Iowa, Ohio will go to Trump + all romney states

NC VA PA MI FL = ?
 
Thing1 said:
I was thinking Trump was going to win, but the polls today don't really show as much momentum as I thought. Some of the red states that Hillary was threatening in are coming home.

If I'm a Trump fan, I'm looking at FL & feeling discouraged. He can't seem to really break through there, and the latest poll has Hillary up by 4. Given her huge ground game advantage there, I'd be surprised if he wins it at this point.

And if he doesn't win FL, he's done.
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Clinton is the favorite, but a Trump win is far from impossible. She had an absolutely awful last three day, lost 12 points in the 538 model in that time. Today she lost just about 1%.
 
Leonthecat said:
If Trumpf were to pull off the impossible and win every toss up battleground state. He would still be at 266 electoral votes.
To win he would have to take a solid blue Clinton state as well.
That would be like winning the trifecta at the track and the lotto on the same day.
Besides, it is rigged against him.
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The battleground states are not independent variables, their support for any one candidate is highly correlated. if the Nazi party overperforms their polls they could easily sweep all of them. Then just one part of Clinton's "firewall" has to break down for her to lose. And the firewall is not really such a firewall in such an environment, the firewall would be the new swing states and he could sweep all of them too.
 
Waco was justice said:
The battleground states are not independent variables, if the Nazi party overperforms their polls they could easily sweep all of them. Then just one part of Clinton's "firewall" has to break down for her to lose.
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one thing that should panic clinton supporters but isnt is how easily ohio fell. Clinton is not even bothering anymore and is now deploying sanders almost full time in michigan.
 
If the polls were off by 3-4 points, something like this would be fully possible:

tHRHO8T.png


He would sweep the tossups and the entire "firewall".
 
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