Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back

Eno L. Camino said:
This is not an area I am well-versed on, but, I imagine it is like the evolving system of retirement. In the old days, Pre-Greatest, Greatest and Lost Generation, plus early Boomers, could retire on a traditional pension/benefits plan and SS (Medicare/Medicaid came along, as well), and be set. Nowadays, you probably aren't going to receive a traditional pension plan or SS. Now, it's all about building an IRA/Roth, 401k, investment portfolio (even if it's just mutual funds and annuities), and, hopefully, a decent long-term care insurance policy.


The idea that we are a services, rather than a manufacturing, economy, has always sounded a bit irksome and defeatist to me. This is a good article, though.
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It's not entirely true.
We are the second largest manufacturing company in the world. Large factories may not be returning soon but manufacturing startups are booming.
In addition to energy, value added food products are manufacturing as well and we are seeing quantum leaps in the variety of high end food products entering the market. Food is a better product for marketing than durable goods as well because of repeat sales.
In addition to value added food, aqua-culture , organics, and any and all specialty and niche foods and farmers markets are experiencing explosive growth.
The future is not as bleak as the author indicates.
There are still opportunities just not where they used to be.
Of course it is obvious that the idea of graduating High School, marrying Suzy and working with dad and uncle bob at the factory then retiring after 40 years with a fat pension from FOMOCO are over.
I wouldn't be so glib about S.S. quite yet, though of course you should plan otherwise.
 
The WA economy has stabilized dramatically since 1980. Before that, the fate of Boeing in the latter parts of the 50s, 60s, and 70s could cause devastation to the area (with logging, agriculture, and fisheries being equally volatile). In 1969, Seattle had a mini-depression going on, and led the nation with 12% unemployment. Then, along came Microsoft and the tech industry. We now enjoy the presence of Amazon, Costco, Starbucks, and T-Mobile, in addition to Boeing and Weyerhaeuser, plus many smaller companies.
 
cawacko said:
As I suspected you are incapable of discussing the economic topic of manufacturing jobs. You probably believe tariffs and trade wars are a good thing and will magically return us to a 1950's style economy.
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You and the OP can't comprehend what Trump is saying. He didn't mean the jobs that you gave to foreigners are coming back. He meant that new jobs wont go to foreigners but will go to Americans instead.

During the 1950's, this country wasn't running a trade deficit of billions of dollars which you call free trade. We are for fair trade, not protectionism.

By the way, Lincoln supported protectionism, we support free trade which is beneficial for America.
 
philly rabbit said:
You and the OP can't comprehend what Trump is saying. He didn't mean the jobs that you gave to foreigners are coming back. He meant that new jobs wont go to foreigners but will go to Americans instead.

During the 1950's, this country wasn't running a trade deficit of billions of dollars which you call free trade. We are for fair trade, not protectionism.

By the way, Lincoln supported protectionism, we support free trade which is beneficial for America.
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Please share with us how Trump (and the government) is going to dictate where new jobs will be located?

I mean I'm all for new good paying jobs in the U.S. but it doesn't just happen because of tariffs and trade wars.
 
bringing manufacturing jobs back to America is not possible so long as an elitist culture sits in and controls congress.

the ONLY way to CREATE new manufacturing jobs in the USA are to 1) make it easier for people with little means to start up new factories and 2) stop congress from making rich people richer...and that INCLUDES democrats in office.
 
cawacko said:
Please share with us how Trump (and the government) is going to dictate where new jobs will be located?

I mean I'm all for new good paying jobs in the U.S. but it doesn't just happen because of tariffs and trade wars.
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I asked you if you supported a fifteen percent corporate tax rate and you said yes you did. You bring back jobs to America by lowering corporate taxes. You start working with corporations by giving them tax incentives, you don't oppose corporations and blame them for the country's ills.

Don't give me unions, unions are no longer job outsourcing job killers, taxes are.
 
cawacko said:
Please share with us how Trump (and the government) is going to dictate where new jobs will be located?

I mean I'm all for new good paying jobs in the U.S. but it doesn't just happen because of tariffs and trade wars.
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The people that are practicing protectionism are the country's trading partners like China and South Korea. American manufacturers cannot sell their products in other countries because of high tariffs. Raise their tariffs and force them to be competitive.

That's called fair trade, not protectionism.
 
cawacko said:
This is a big part of Trump's appeal. Maybe his lower educated supporters can get jobs cleaning hotels, gardening, washing dishes in restaurants etc. after all the illegals are kicked out.

Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back

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I don't disagree with most of this, but manufacturing was going downhill long before NAFTA.

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christiefan915 said:
It doesn't make much sense to me from looking at the graph. Looks like from 1994 on, big changes didn't start until 2001.
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Here's a liberal perspective on the jobs loss supposedly caused by NAFTA. I support free trade so I am fine with the NAFTA deal. I'm sure these people would argue while other sectors of manufacturing may have gained employment NAFTA specific affected industries lost employment.

Manufacturing jobs on the whole fell from 2000 - 2009 and have had a slow recovery since.



NAFTA at 20: One Million U.S. Jobs Lost, Higher Income Inequality

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/nafta-at-20-one-million-u_b_4550207.html
 
cawacko said:
Ok. What do you feel is ignorant about the article?
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Manufacturing jobs can and will come back to the US. Especially when China surpases the US economy and they stop devaluing their currency. Then the US will once again be a cheaper place to make goods.

Also better trade agreements should be in order. Trump is right, we lose bad in trade. Hasn't been fair for many years.
 
Irish said:
Manufacturing jobs can and will come back to the US. Especially when China surpases the US economy and they stop devaluing their currency. Then the US will once again be a cheaper place to make goods.

Also better trade agreements should be in order. Trump is right, we lose bad in trade. Hasn't been fair for many years.
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Do you disagree with their premise here?

""Here’s the problem: Whether or not those manufacturing jobs could have been saved, they aren’t coming back, at least not most of them. How do we know? Because in recent years, factories have been coming back, but the jobs haven’t. Because of rising wages in China, the need for shorter supply chains and other factors, a small but growing group of companies are shifting production back to the U.S. But the factories they build here are heavily automated, employing a small fraction of the workers they would have a generation ago.""


This also doesn't reference manufacturing jobs in China are being off shored to places like Vietnam so leaving China doesn't necessarily mean they are coming back to the U.S.
 
cawacko said:
Do you disagree with their premise here?

""Here’s the problem: Whether or not those manufacturing jobs could have been saved, they aren’t coming back, at least not most of them. How do we know? Because in recent years, factories have been coming back, but the jobs haven’t. Because of rising wages in China, the need for shorter supply chains and other factors, a small but growing group of companies are shifting production back to the U.S. But the factories they build here are heavily automated, employing a small fraction of the workers they would have a generation ago.""


This also doesn't reference manufacturing jobs in China are being off shored to places like Vietnam so leaving China doesn't necessarily mean they are coming back to the U.S.
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Well I don't disagree that automation will kill a lot of jobs, and yes we will have a lot of small manufacturing. But I do disagree with the premise that mauf jobs will never return. If we look at automotive jobs in Detroit and elsewhere, many have come back. If we had actual fair trade and fair wages for workers we would see a great return on many of these manfu jobs.

That being said, I am not sure how many millennials or future gen. workers will be stepping up to take these jobs. Unless they pay out the nose for them and have outstanding benes. They would likely be filled by latino immigrants, which goes against Trumps deportation/wall plans.

So yeah there's problems, and I don't endorse anyone sides of ideals. But I don't think its impossible to bring some of these jobs back.
 
cawacko said:
Do you disagree with their premise here?

""Here’s the problem: Whether or not those manufacturing jobs could have been saved, they aren’t coming back, at least not most of them. How do we know? Because in recent years, factories have been coming back, but the jobs haven’t. Because of rising wages in China, the need for shorter supply chains and other factors, a small but growing group of companies are shifting production back to the U.S. But the factories they build here are heavily automated, employing a small fraction of the workers they would have a generation ago.""


This also doesn't reference manufacturing jobs in China are being off shored to places like Vietnam so leaving China doesn't necessarily mean they are coming back to the U.S.
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Prices on imported goods must go up for consumers when Trump levels the playing field on trade. But the enormous job creation and non job outsourcing for Americans will make it worth while. Those prices wont stay higher. They will come down because of market forces.

You and your amnesty in the meantime. Trade deals and illegal immigration are destroying the middle class.
 
philly rabbit said:
Prices on imported goods must go up for consumers when Trump levels the playing field on trade. But the enormous job creation and non job outsourcing for Americans will make it worth while. Those prices wont stay higher. They will come down because of market forces.

You and your amnesty in the meantime. Trade deals and illegal immigration are destroying the middle class.
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You want to put an enormous tax on American consumers and you want to eliminate jobs for those who companies focus on exports. And market forces in your scenario will not bring down prices.

Trade is how a country grows. Smoot Hawley type tariffs are how you crush an economy. You don't seem to want to learn from history and want a repeat of that for this century.
 
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