Prop 8 Oral Arguments and Predictions

I'm extremely confident the SCOTUS will rule in favor of gay marriage.

In fact, I guarantee it.

I am not sure what that means to you. I strongly doubt they will overturn the ruling of the lower court, but they might not rule in a way that invalidates all laws against gay marriage. There is good reason to be optimistic. Kennedy does not seem like he is too shy to make a controversial ruling but Roberts may try to get him to reject the plaintiff's defendant's standing and there is a very good argument that they don't have any.
 
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DOMA = unconstitutional
Prop 8 = Fails because marriage is a Fundamental right w no compelling State interest in prohibiting.
 
DOMA = unconstitutional
Prop 8 = Fails because marriage is a Fundamental right w no compelling State interest in prohibiting.

I think DOMA is going down for sure. Prop 8, if they rule one way or the other, it will go the way you say.
 
I expect them to rule that the mandate is constitutional. Everyone will be required to get married. And eat broccoli
 
The term fundamental right gets thrown around alot. No I don't think it is a fundamental right, but nor do I think the state can show a compelling interest in messing with it.

Yeah, but, ummm... you are wrong.

Chief Just Warren's opinion for the UNANIMOUS ruling on Loving v Virginia

Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man," fundamental to our very existence and survival.... To deny this fundamental freedom on so unsupportable a basis as the racial classifications embodied in these statutes, classifications so directly subversive of the principle of equality at the heart of the Fourteenth Amendment, is surely to deprive all the State's citizens of liberty without due process of law. The Fourteenth Amendment requires that the freedom of choice to marry not be restricted by invidious racial discrimination. Under our Constitution, the freedom to marry, or not marry, a person of another race resides with the individual and cannot be infringed by the State.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_rights#United_States

The Bill of Rights lists specifically enumerated rights. The Supreme Court has extended fundamental rights by recognizing several fundamental rights not specifically enumerated in the Constitution, including but not limited to:
  • The right to interstate travel
  • The right to intrastate travel
  • The right to privacy[SUP][10][/SUP] (which includes within it a set of rights) including:
a. The right to marriage[SUP][11][/SUP][SUP][12][/SUP] b. The right to procreation [SUP][13][/SUP] c. The right for a woman to choose to have an abortion before fetal viability [SUP][14][/SUP][SUP][15][/SUP] d. The right to contraception (the right to use contraceptive devices) [SUP][16][/SUP] e. The right of family relations (the right of related persons to live together) Any restrictions on these rights are evaluated with strict scrutiny. If a right is denied to everyone, it is an issue of substantive due process. If a right is denied to some individuals but not others, it is also an issue of equal protection. However, any action abridging a right deemed to be fundamental, when also violating equal protection, will still be held to the overriding standard of strict scrutiny, instead of just simply a rational basis test.

...

The court cannot change it's tune on this without upsetting precedent. The chance that the California court is overruled is very slim.
 
It's not as if Jarod is just throwing out his opinion. Marriage is a fundamental right. The court could change course but that's not going to be easy.
 
I am not sure what that means to you.

What? Repealing DOMA and backing gay marriage?

It will mean jb and I attaining the same status in the eyes of the courts as other married couples. After fifteen years, he deserves to enjoy hospital visitation, spousal care at the hospital, including, and enjoying my pension after my death. Although we are already married in the eyes of his parents, my family and other loved ones, this is special.
 
What? Repealing DOMA and backing gay marriage?

It will mean jb and I attaining the same status in the eyes of the courts as other married couples. After fifteen years, he deserves to enjoy hospital visitation, spousal care at the hospital, including, and enjoying my pension after my death. Although we are already married in the eyes of his parents, my family and other loved ones, this is special.

I hope you two are able to see that soon.
 
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