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uscitizen
08-25-2006, 06:48 AM
For those of you who know me from the other boards. I have been saying this for about a year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE18E95AF%2DDBFF%2D4EE4%2DACF7%2D530A3CD714 D3%7D&symbol=


Recession will be nasty and deep, economist says
Housing is in free fall, pulling the economy down with it, Roubini argues

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:59 PM ET Aug 23, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The United States is headed for a recession that will be "much nastier, deeper and more protracted" than the 2001 recession, says Nouriel Roubini, president of Roubini Global Economics.
Writing on his blog Wednesday, Roubini repeated his call that the U.S. would be in recession in 2007, arguing that the collapse of housing would bring down the rest of the economy. Read more.
Roubini wrote after the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% in July, while inventories soared to a 13-year high and prices flattened out on a year-over-year basis. See full story.
'This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices.'
— Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
"This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.
And the impact of the bursting of the bubble will affect every household in America, not just the few people who owned significant shares in technology companies during the dot-com boom, he said. Prices are falling even in the Midwest, which never experienced a bubble, "a scary signal" of how much pain the drop in household wealth could cause.
Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University and was a senior economist in the White House and the Treasury Department in the late 1990s. His firm focuses largely on global macroeconomics.
While many economists share Roubini's concerns about imbalances in the global economy and in the U.S. housing sector, he stands nearly alone in predicting a recession next year.
Fed watcher Tim Duy called Roubini the "the current archetypical Eeyore," responding to a comment Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made last week in referring to economic pessimists as "Eeyores," after Winnie the Pooh's grumpy friend.
"By itself this slump is enough to trigger a U.S. recession: its effects on real residential investment, wealth and consumption, and employment will be more severe than the tech bust that triggered the 2001 recession," Roubini said.
Housing has accounted, directly and indirectly, for about 30% of employment growth during this expansion, including employment in retail and in manufacturing producing consumer goods, he said.
In the past year, consumers spent about $200 billion of the money they pulled out of their home equity, he estimated. Already, sales of consumer durables such as cars and furniture have weakened.
"As the housing sector slumps, the job and income and wage losses in housing will percolate throughout the economy," Roubini said.
Consumers also face high energy prices, higher interest rates, stagnant wages, negative savings and high debt levels, he noted.
"This is the tipping point for the U.S. consumer and the effects will be ugly," he said. "Expect the great recession of 2007 to be much nastier, deeper and more protracted than the 2001 recession."
He also sees many of the same warning signs in other economies, including some in Europe. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

uscitizen
08-25-2006, 06:50 AM
And this "expert" does not seem to consider the energy costs, pretty well flat wages, personal debt level, US auto industry troubles, etc that are also just waiting for a trigger.

uscitizen
10-28-2008, 04:55 PM
bump

Epicurus
10-28-2008, 05:03 PM
Too bad there was no recession in 2007 as the article claims, eh uscit?

uscitizen
10-28-2008, 05:09 PM
Not officially. no.

Sorry that you are dissapointed that it did not happen then though.

Epicurus
10-28-2008, 05:10 PM
Haha. Not "officially".

You are priceless.

uscitizen
10-28-2008, 05:13 PM
Haha. Not "officially".

You are priceless.


I have predicted this thing better than the experts did they kept running on fat dumb and happy.

I knew it was coming just not exactly when. The economy is vast a varied. It is like a huge rock hard to slow down and the fact of inertia keeps it rolling for a while.
But like a big rock once stalled hard to get spinning again.

evince
10-28-2008, 05:25 PM
You did peg it USC.

uscitizen
10-28-2008, 07:45 PM
Yeah desh I have a bunch of MT ST Helens critics. They whine becuase I did not give them the exact date it would happen. Heck I did not know that. Even the PHD types still cannot predict that level of this recession.

All I knew was it would happen in the near future and be a nasty one.
Too many different but interlinked things in the red for it not to happen.

Whomever
06-20-2009, 08:28 PM
Bump

Topspin
06-21-2009, 05:28 PM
Did he finnally get accepted to community college like he predicted 20 yrs ago.

Minister of Truth
06-22-2009, 01:07 AM
Did he finnally get accepted to community college like he predicted 20 yrs ago.

Hey, you can't get accepted wheres you don't apply. Wot, wot!

Banned
07-22-2012, 07:25 PM
bump

Minister of Truth
07-22-2012, 07:50 PM
Yeah desh I have a bunch of MT ST Helens critics. They whine becuase I did not give them the exact date it would happen. Heck I did not know that. Even the PHD types still cannot predict that level of this recession.

All I knew was it would happen in the near future and be a nasty one.
Too many different but interlinked things in the red for it not to happen.

My birthday is Mt. St. Helen's Day, so now I'm obligated to be your critic, USC. :clink:

Banned
07-22-2012, 08:09 PM
I lived in Portland when St Helens blew her top.
Sad thing, the loss of life and the beautiful area it devestated. I loved to camp and hike in that area.
I even climbed St. Helens.

Minister of Truth
07-22-2012, 09:00 PM
Harry Truman died on that mountain.

Banned
07-22-2012, 09:06 PM
Actually he died at the foot of that mountain and was too stubborn or stupid to leave. He alone deserved to die.

Minister of Truth
07-22-2012, 09:45 PM
I agree.

evince
05-10-2013, 09:43 AM
The man kicked bootay

evince
05-10-2013, 09:44 AM
For those of you who know me from the other boards. I have been saying this for about a year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE18E95AF%2DDBFF%2D4EE4%2DACF7%2D530A3CD714 D3%7D&symbol=


Recession will be nasty and deep, economist says
Housing is in free fall, pulling the economy down with it, Roubini argues

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:59 PM ET Aug 23, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The United States is headed for a recession that will be "much nastier, deeper and more protracted" than the 2001 recession, says Nouriel Roubini, president of Roubini Global Economics.
Writing on his blog Wednesday, Roubini repeated his call that the U.S. would be in recession in 2007, arguing that the collapse of housing would bring down the rest of the economy. Read more.
Roubini wrote after the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 4.1% in July, while inventories soared to a 13-year high and prices flattened out on a year-over-year basis. See full story.
'This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices.'
— Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
"This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices," Roubini said. The decline in investment in the housing sector will exceed the drop in investment when the Nasdaq collapsed in 2000 and 2001, he said.
And the impact of the bursting of the bubble will affect every household in America, not just the few people who owned significant shares in technology companies during the dot-com boom, he said. Prices are falling even in the Midwest, which never experienced a bubble, "a scary signal" of how much pain the drop in household wealth could cause.
Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University and was a senior economist in the White House and the Treasury Department in the late 1990s. His firm focuses largely on global macroeconomics.
While many economists share Roubini's concerns about imbalances in the global economy and in the U.S. housing sector, he stands nearly alone in predicting a recession next year.
Fed watcher Tim Duy called Roubini the "the current archetypical Eeyore," responding to a comment Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made last week in referring to economic pessimists as "Eeyores," after Winnie the Pooh's grumpy friend.
"By itself this slump is enough to trigger a U.S. recession: its effects on real residential investment, wealth and consumption, and employment will be more severe than the tech bust that triggered the 2001 recession," Roubini said.
Housing has accounted, directly and indirectly, for about 30% of employment growth during this expansion, including employment in retail and in manufacturing producing consumer goods, he said.
In the past year, consumers spent about $200 billion of the money they pulled out of their home equity, he estimated. Already, sales of consumer durables such as cars and furniture have weakened.
"As the housing sector slumps, the job and income and wage losses in housing will percolate throughout the economy," Roubini said.
Consumers also face high energy prices, higher interest rates, stagnant wages, negative savings and high debt levels, he noted.
"This is the tipping point for the U.S. consumer and the effects will be ugly," he said. "Expect the great recession of 2007 to be much nastier, deeper and more protracted than the 2001 recession."
He also sees many of the same warning signs in other economies, including some in Europe. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.



he was nearly always right

BRUTALITOPS
05-10-2013, 09:57 AM
The man kicked bootay

yeah he was very good at posting a link of someone elses opinion.

Jarod
05-10-2013, 10:00 AM
US gains significant creditability in my book regarding economic predictions.

evince
05-10-2013, 10:02 AM
he was telling these guys it was coming and they they spit on him for it.

look at whos still spitting at him because he was right

BRUTALITOPS
05-10-2013, 10:03 AM
I mean, who would have ever have thought it was a bad idea for liberals to push for poor people getting loans that they could never pay back?

Phantasmal
05-10-2013, 10:06 AM
I mean, who would have ever have thought it was a bad idea for liberals to push for poor people getting loans that they could never pay back?

Lol, yeah those damn liberal bankers

evince
05-10-2013, 10:07 AM
and they wonder why their called the stupid party

BRUTALITOPS
05-10-2013, 10:16 AM
desh acts like uscitizen was russel crowe from a beautiful mind writing equations on his window

Cancel 2016.2
05-10-2013, 10:19 AM
he was telling these guys it was coming and they they spit on him for it.

look at whos still spitting at him because he was right

How many times are you going to make a fool of yourself with comments like the above?

He said the same thing over and over again for ten years and then when it finally came to pass, idiots like you are like 'wow, he was SO right'

Also... no one spit on him. But let me guess, you will again post a link to the thread where we discussed the stupidity of people making a run on a bank and you will then pretend that mocking people panicking somehow means we were saying a crash wasn't coming?

Cancel 2016.2
05-10-2013, 10:20 AM
and they wonder why their called the stupid party

their
there
they're

Tell us Desh, since you obviously come from the 'smart' party... which of the above should you have used?

evince
01-25-2014, 09:29 AM
look at the little right wing assholes being all pissed that they could not see this coming and SPIT on the people who did predict it.


why should anyone listen to you fucks.

Youre never correct

evince
01-25-2014, 11:39 AM
you flap in the wind dude

NOVA
01-25-2014, 03:18 PM
Interesting sig. Mr USCitizen.....but it needs a little context and perspective to really pop....


Bush doubled the debt from 5 trillion to 10 trillion.
Proving tax cuts work!

When Obama became president in Jan. 2009, the total federal debt stood at $10.6 trillion. After 5 yr. of Obama, it hit $16.7 trillion — an increase of 57 percent. In the same time frame under President George W. Bush, total federal debt rose 38 percent. Under President Clinton, it rose 32 percent.




Bush asked for and signed for the TARP money.
The Republican senate leader backed Bush on this.

The TARP program was signed into law by U.S. President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008, about 100 days before he left office....It was kept in place under
Obama and most of the money spent has been recovered by the government.

NOVA
01-25-2014, 03:22 PM
their
there
they're

Tell us Desh, since you obviously come from the 'smart' party... which of the above should you have used?


Don't rile her up or she'll trot out her one pony horse show again.....:bdh::bdh:

Rune
01-25-2014, 03:24 PM
I mean, who would have ever have thought it was a bad idea for liberals to push for poor people getting loans that they could never pay back?

Who wanted an "ownership" society? Oh yeah, Dubya.

NOVA
01-25-2014, 03:31 PM
he was telling these guys it was coming and they they spit on him for it.

look at whos still spitting at him because he was right


Better late than never..........

Setting the Record Straight: Six Years of Unheeded Warnings for GSE Reform
The Washington Times Fails To Research The Administration's Efforts To Reform Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac

Today, the Washington Times incorrectly accused the White House of ignoring warnings of trouble ahead for government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and neglecting to "adopt any reform until this summer," when it was too late. "Neither the White House nor Congress heeded the warnings, Fannie and Freddie retained strong bipartisan support during the 1990s and early part of this decade." (Editorial, "Hear, See And Speak No Evil About Fannie And Freddie," The Washington Times, 10/9/08)
Over the past six years, the President and his Administration have not only warned of the systemic consequences of failure to reform GSEs but also put forward thoughtful plans to reduce the risk that either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would encounter such difficulties. In fact, it was Congress that flatly rejected President Bush's call more than five years ago to reform the GSEs. Over the years, the President's repeated attempts to reform the supervision of these entities were thwarted by the legislative maneuvering of those who emphatically denied there were problems with the GSEs.
2001


April: The Administration's FY02 budget declares that the size of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is "a potential problem," because "financial trouble of a large GSE could cause strong repercussions in financial markets, affecting Federally insured entities and economic activity." (2002 Budget Analytic Perspectives, pg. 142)

2002


May: The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) calls for the disclosure and corporate governance principles contained in the President's 10-point plan for corporate responsibility to apply to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (OMB Prompt Letter to OFHEO, 5/29/02)

2003


February: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) releases a report explaining that unexpected problems at a GSE could immediately spread into financial sectors beyond the housing market.
September: Then-Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies before the House Financial Services Committee to recommend that Congress enact "legislation to create a new Federal agency to regulate and supervise the financial activities of our housing-related government sponsored enterprises" and set prudent and appropriate minimum capital adequacy requirements.
September: Then-House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Barney Frank (D-MA) strongly disagrees with the Administration's assessment, saying "these two entities – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – are not facing any kind of financial crisis … The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing." (Stephen Labaton, "New Agency Proposed To Oversee Freddie Mac And Fannie Mae," The New York Times, 9/11/03)
October: Senator Thomas Carper (D-DE) refuses to acknowledge any necessity for GSE reforms, saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." (Sen. Carper, Hearing of Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, 10/16/03)
November: Then-Council of the Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairman Greg Mankiw explains that any "legislation to reform GSE regulation should empower the new regulator with sufficient strength and credibility to reduce systemic risk." To reduce the potential for systemic instability, the regulator would have "broad authority to set both risk-based and minimum capital standards" and "receivership powers necessary to wind down the affairs of a troubled GSE." (N. Gregory Mankiw, Remarks At The Conference Of State Bank Supervisors State Banking Summit And Leadership, 11/6/03)

2004


February: The President's FY05 Budget again highlights the risk posed by the explosive growth of the GSEs and their low levels of required capital and calls for creation of a new, world-class regulator: "The Administration has determined that the safety and soundness regulators of the housing GSEs lack sufficient power and stature to meet their responsibilities, and therefore … should be replaced with a new strengthened regulator." (2005 Budget Analytic Perspectives, pg. 83)
February: Then-CEA Chairman Mankiw cautions Congress to "not take [the financial market's] strength for granted." Again, the call from the Administration was to reduce this risk by "ensuring that the housing GSEs are overseen by an effective regulator." (N. Gregory Mankiw, Op-Ed, "Keeping Fannie And Freddie's House In Order," Financial Times, 2/24/04)
April: Rep. Frank ignores the warnings, accusing the Administration of creating an "artificial issue." At a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association conference, Rep. Frank said "people tend to pay their mortgages. I don't think we are in any remote danger here. This focus on receivership, I think, is intended to create fears that aren't there." ("Frank: GSE Failure A Phony Issue," American Banker, 4/21/04)
June: Then-Treasury Deputy Secretary Samuel Bodman spotlights the risk posed by the GSEs and calls for reform, saying "We do not have a world-class system of supervision of the housing government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), even though the importance of the housing financial system that the GSEs serve demands the best in supervision to ensure the long-term vitality of that system. Therefore, the Administration has called for a new, first class, regulatory supervisor for the three housing GSEs: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banking System." (Samuel Bodman, House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Testimony, 6/16/04)

2005


April: Then-Secretary Snow repeats his call for GSE reform, saying "Events that have transpired since I testified before this Committee in 2003 reinforce concerns over the systemic risks posed by the GSEs and further highlight the need for real GSE reform to ensure that our housing finance system remains a strong and vibrant source of funding for expanding homeownership opportunities in America … Half-measures will only exacerbate the risks to our financial system." (Secretary John W. Snow, "Testimony Before The U.S. House Financial Services Committee," 4/13/05)
July: Then-Minority Leader Harry Reid rejects legislation reforming GSEs, "while I favor improving oversight by our federal housing regulators to ensure safety and soundness, we cannot pass legislation that could limit Americans from owning homes and potentially harm our economy in the process." ("Dems Rip New Fannie Mae Regulatory Measure," United Press International, 7/28/05)

2007


August: President Bush emphatically calls on Congress to pass a reform package for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying "first things first when it comes to those two institutions. Congress needs to get them reformed, get them streamlined, get them focused, and then I will consider other options." (President George W. Bush, Press Conference, the White House, 8/9/07)
August: Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Chairman Christopher Dodd ignores the President's warnings and calls on him to "immediately reconsider his ill-advised" position. (Eric Dash, "Fannie Mae's Offer To Help Ease Credit Squeeze Is Rejected, As Critics Complain Of Opportunism," The New York Times, 8/11/07)
December: President Bush again warns Congress of the need to pass legislation reforming GSEs, saying "These institutions provide liquidity in the mortgage market that benefits millions of homeowners, and it is vital they operate safely and operate soundly. So I've called on Congress to pass legislation that strengthens independent regulation of the GSEs – and ensures they focus on their important housing mission. The GSE reform bill passed by the House earlier this year is a good start. But the Senate has not acted. And the United States Senate needs to pass this legislation soon." (President George W. Bush, Discusses Housing, the White House, 12/6/07)

2008


February: Assistant Treasury Secretary David Nason reiterates the urgency of reforms, saying "A new regulatory structure for the housing GSEs is essential if these entities are to continue to perform their public mission successfully." (David Nason, Testimony On Reforming GSE Regulation, Senate Committee On Banking, Housing And Urban Affairs, 2/7/08)
March: President Bush calls on Congress to take action and "move forward with reforms on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They need to continue to modernize the FHA, as well as allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to homeowners to refinance their mortgages." (President George W. Bush, Remarks To The Economic Club Of New York, New York, NY, 3/14/08)
April: President Bush urges Congress to pass the much needed legislation and "modernize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [There are] constructive things Congress can do that will encourage the housing market to correct quickly by … helping people stay in their homes." (President George W. Bush, Meeting With Cabinet, the White House, 4/14/08)
May: President Bush issues several pleas to Congress to pass legislation reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before the situation deteriorates further.

"Americans are concerned about making their mortgage payments and keeping their homes. Yet Congress has failed to pass legislation I have repeatedly requested to modernize the Federal Housing Administration that will help more families stay in their homes, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow state housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance sub-prime loans." (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/3/08)
"[T]he government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes. And one way we can do that – and Congress is making progress on this – is the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That reform will come with a strong, independent regulator." (President George W. Bush, Meeting With The Secretary Of The Treasury, the White House, 5/19/08)
"Congress needs to pass legislation to modernize the Federal Housing Administration, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance subprime loans." (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/31/08)


June: As foreclosure rates continued to rise in the first quarter, the President once again asks Congress to take the necessary measures to address this challenge, saying "we need to pass legislation to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." (President George W. Bush, Remarks At Swearing In Ceremony For Secretary Of Housing And Urban Development, Washington, D.C., 6/6/08)
July: Congress heeds the President's call for action and passes reform legislation for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as it becomes clear that the institutions are failing.
September: Democrats in Congress forget their previous objections to GSE reforms, as Senator Dodd questions "why weren't we doing more, why did we wait almost a year before there were any significant steps taken to try to deal with this problem? … I have a lot of questions about where was the administration over the last eight years." (Dawn Kopecki, "Fannie Mae, Freddie 'House Of Cards' Prompts Takeover," Bloomberg, 9/9/08)


http://www.justplainpolitics.com/showthread.php?559-UScitizen-prediction-update&p=1425626#post1425626

NOVA
01-25-2014, 03:38 PM
Need more ???


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM