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MasterChief
07-26-2006, 09:08 PM
The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is having an impact on the midterm elections in the United States – and that impact, at least for now, disproportionately benefits Republican candidates.


That’s the view of Larry J. Sabato, professor, political analyst and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Writing in his Crystal Ball election guide, Sabato cited several advantages the Middle East conflict – and the extensive news coverage it has generated – affords GOP candidates:


The absence of the usual level of media coverage of the upcoming elections makes it more difficult for many challengers to get the attention needed to defeat incumbents – while those incumbents scarf up free TV news time by commenting on the Middle East troubles.

This effect of the war disproportionately helps Republicans because they are in the majority in both houses of Congress, and most endangered incumbents this year are from the GOP.

Democrats still are not the Republicans’ equal on the issue of national security, although the gap is not as great as it was in the years immediately after 9/11.

In times of international tension and trouble, there is a natural focus on the White House, and President Bush has the security credentials to take advantage of this issue on behalf of his party. Whether Bush fully does so remains to be seen.


The near black-out of news on Iraq can only help the White House.
Were it not for the bombs falling on Beirut and the rockets raining down on Haifa, the carnage throughout Iraq would be leading the news. GOP candidates would surely suffer from the chaos, just as they have been doing for a year or more.



Republicans could well have taken some major hits if President Bush’s veto of the stem-cell research bill had received more scrutiny.
The American people substantially favor embryonic stem cell research, according to Sabato – even many normally pro-life voters; Nancy Reagan, Bill Frist and Orrin Hatch represent this sizeable segment of the electorate. Bush's veto may play to some conservative Christians, but it has the potential to alienate the independents and moderates necessary for a broad-based GOP victory in the fall.

But Sabato cautions: "Having said all this, "Democrats may not be disadvantaged by the Middle East war come November.”

Even the Israelis suggest that they may be ready for a cease-fire and an international peacekeeping force after a few more weeks of fighting, once they have "cleaned out” Hezbollah missiles and fighters in southern Lebanon.
"The focus of the public and the media shifts rapidly, and only a terrible game of war dominoes could keep this conflict at the top of the news through the American elections,” Sabato writes.

Meanwhile, Democrats can also score points from the conflict, Sabato asserts. Any failures in American diplomacy can be attributed in part to the nation's costly commitment in Iraq.

Sabato concludes: "The final electoral truth is that the Middle East war would somehow have to help President Bush and the Republican Congress to climb out of the polling cellar in the time remaining before Americans stream to the polls.

"While there may appear opportunities ripe for exploitation by the GOP, so far nothing of the sort has happened as the fighting rages on.”

maineman
07-27-2006, 03:36 AM
"While there may appear opportunities ripe for exploitation by the GOP, so far nothing of the sort has happened as the fighting rages on.”

how true

Cancel7
07-27-2006, 05:35 AM
Wow! And all it took was some dead children. But heck, they're brown anyway.

GOP GOP GOP!

Cancel7
07-27-2006, 05:36 AM
"While there may appear opportunities ripe for exploitation by the GOP, so far nothing of the sort has happened as the fighting rages on.”

how true

Oh the letdown.

Well, you know what would probably help?

Dead children here! If only something would happen here. I'll bet the GOP's numbers would go through the roof!

Well, here's hoping right?

maineman
07-27-2006, 06:43 AM
the faux "masterchief" cannot understand the difference between opportunity and success. The GOP has had plenty of opportunities to lead America in a positive way...they just have not succeeded in that effort.

AlexZello
02-18-2008, 05:19 AM
What do you think of Obadiah Shoher's views on the Middle East conflict? One can argue, of course, that Shoher is ultra-right, but his followers are far from being a marginal group. Also, he rejects Jewish moralistic reasoning - that's alone is highly unusual for the Israeli right. And he is very influential here in Israel. So what do you think? uh, here's the site in question: Middle East conflict (http://samsonblinded.org/blog)

Hermes Thoth
02-18-2008, 06:50 AM
I think palestinians would do the jobs jews don't want to do, and that Israeli insistence on firm enforced borders is a significant drag on their potential GDP. Do they want people to starve? Borders are a crime against humanity.

Damocles
02-18-2008, 08:31 AM
What do you think of Obadiah Shoher's views on the Middle East conflict? One can argue, of course, that Shoher is ultra-right, but his followers are far from being a marginal group. Also, he rejects Jewish moralistic reasoning - that's alone is highly unusual for the Israeli right. And he is very influential here in Israel. So what do you think?
I've never heard of him. Do you have some links that would give us a bit more information?

Battleborne
02-18-2008, 10:27 AM
I've never heard of him. Do you have some links that would give us a bit more information?


pseudo name for the author of 'Sampson Blinded' read the reviews:

www.epinions.com/content_281208524420?linkin_id=8003929