Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی
Before Donald Trump became president, he honed his hawkishness on Iran, complaining about the “plane loads of cash” it received under the 2015 nuclear deal.
Now, his ability to end the war he started in the Middle East hinges, in large part, on how much money he gives Tehran.
“Money is a big part of this. It’s a key to any compromise from Iran’s point of view,” Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said.
Some US and Arab officials agree that Trump’s unwillingness to loosen the purse strings is the real reason talks between the two sides are deadlocked and potentially doomed to fail.
Iran has floated a proposal to end the war, but Trump built his Iran policy over a decade by waging economic warfare on the country, using the power of the US financial system.
“Trump hasn’t helped himself,” Vatanka, at the Middle East Institute, said.
If the war ends with Iran in a better financial position than it started, this would be a further embarrassment for the Trump administration.
Barely a month before the US and Israel attacked Iran, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a victory lap at the Davos Economic Forum, recounting how sanctions sent Iran’s currency, the rial, “into free fall” and the Iranian people “out on the streets”.
Instead Iran has benefited greatly from its control of the Strait of Hormuz by selling oil at higher prices in defiance of the American "blockade". The US blockade is impacting oil sales, but in the short term, Iran can still move the crude it has loaded on ships in Asian territorial waters, and the US Navy is powerless to prevent it.
“The nuclear issue is honestly Betamax now,” Alan Eyre, a former member of the US team that negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, stated, referring to the now obsolete 1975 video cassette player. “Everyone is talking about what the Iranians are willing to give up. But that is largely a function of what they are willing to get,” he added. "What the Iranians want is money."
Eyre said there are four ways Iran can be compensated: reparations, tolling, unblocking frozen assets, and sanctions relief. Of the four, he believes US acceptance of a toll in the Strait of Hormuz is the likeliest path for a deal.
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals regarding a toll on the Strait of Hormuz. At first, Trump suggested the two countries could share in the proceeds, but the administration has since backed away from that position.
Now, his ability to end the war he started in the Middle East hinges, in large part, on how much money he gives Tehran.
“Money is a big part of this. It’s a key to any compromise from Iran’s point of view,” Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said.
Some US and Arab officials agree that Trump’s unwillingness to loosen the purse strings is the real reason talks between the two sides are deadlocked and potentially doomed to fail.
Iran has floated a proposal to end the war, but Trump built his Iran policy over a decade by waging economic warfare on the country, using the power of the US financial system.
“Trump hasn’t helped himself,” Vatanka, at the Middle East Institute, said.
If the war ends with Iran in a better financial position than it started, this would be a further embarrassment for the Trump administration.
Barely a month before the US and Israel attacked Iran, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a victory lap at the Davos Economic Forum, recounting how sanctions sent Iran’s currency, the rial, “into free fall” and the Iranian people “out on the streets”.
Instead Iran has benefited greatly from its control of the Strait of Hormuz by selling oil at higher prices in defiance of the American "blockade". The US blockade is impacting oil sales, but in the short term, Iran can still move the crude it has loaded on ships in Asian territorial waters, and the US Navy is powerless to prevent it.
“The nuclear issue is honestly Betamax now,” Alan Eyre, a former member of the US team that negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, stated, referring to the now obsolete 1975 video cassette player. “Everyone is talking about what the Iranians are willing to give up. But that is largely a function of what they are willing to get,” he added. "What the Iranians want is money."
Eyre said there are four ways Iran can be compensated: reparations, tolling, unblocking frozen assets, and sanctions relief. Of the four, he believes US acceptance of a toll in the Strait of Hormuz is the likeliest path for a deal.
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals regarding a toll on the Strait of Hormuz. At first, Trump suggested the two countries could share in the proceeds, but the administration has since backed away from that position.