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These days you need to win the house and 60 seats in the Senate.
Rasmussen puts Democrats ahead on Generic Congressional Ballot
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ssional_ballot
And Rasmussen is the most right-leaning pollster.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...vote-2170.html
RCP has the Democrats ahead by +2.5%, and has for three or so months. Due to the nature of the FPTP system, you can't say anything definitive, but the party that wins the most votes typically wins the majority.
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
These days you need to win the house and 60 seats in the Senate.
RCP is also showing that it's an uphill battle for the Repubs. Polls are showing that Obama vs Santorum or Gingrich, Obama wins in a landslide. Paul does better then those two but loses handily. Romney polls statistically even but the electoral vote shows he's way behind. Obama has 217 likely/leaning electoral votes to Romney's 195 (assumint Romney gets the nod). There are 9 toss up States and toss up states almost always split down the middle in an election. If that were the case and even if Romey wins 5 of the 9 toss up states he probably loses. If Obama picks up just 3 of the big toss up states (really any 3 states east of the Mississippi) then he wins.
I predict a clost election with Obama winning 53% to 47% in the popular vote and 294 to 244.
will you do better here than you did with your predictions about Wisconsin?.....Originally Posted by Mott the Hoople
You need to win a supermajority in the Senate to hope to reform things. However, you only need a majority to pass budgets; the people who established the system were wise enough to acknowledge that this is one area where gridlock can seriously damage the country. And this will allow the Democrats to fund Obamacare. It would be an impressive feat of any administration to finally bring to fruition the century long struggle to establish universal healthcare. Of course, there's really not much hope for any of the other reforms his administration had promised unless they win 60 seats in 2012 (unlikely) or the Republican party changes its mind (unlikelier). In 2014, however, who knows?
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
Where are you getting electoral college figures? I wasn't even aware they'd even begun polling individual states on this issue yet.
Anyway, with Romney's win in Florida, I think he's honestly got a lock on the election by this point. All of the primaries in Febuary are giving Romney large leads. The only remotely near-term primary in which Gingrich or Santorum have a sliver of a chance, according to current polling, is Ohio's primary in early march. However, I seriously doubt that they can sustain their current figures through an entire month of consecutive Romney victories.
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
they have....
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...oll/52871890/1
he's just wrong about the results.....
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