Romney Edges Palin, Huckabee in Early 2012 GOP Test
Also, I'm posting a poll with this thread.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121715/Ro...-GOP-Test.aspx
Romney Edges Palin, Huckabee in Early 2012 GOP Test
Palin’s favorable rating stable after announcement of her resignation
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- About one in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents make Mitt Romney their top choice for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, giving him a slight edge over Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the choice of 14% of Republicans, with much smaller numbers choosing current Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Haley Barbour of Mississippi.
These results are based on a July 10-12 Gallup Poll, which asked Republicans to choose which of six possible candidates for the Republican presidential nomination they would be most likely to support in 2012.
As of this moment, Romney, one of John McCain's chief rivals for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, holds a slight but not statistically significant 26% to 21% advantage over Palin, who was McCain's vice presidential running mate.
Palin's strong showing suggests she remains a contender for GOP front-runner status even after her surprising decision to resign as governor of Alaska, which she announced July 3. Some have speculated that she made that decision with an eye toward running for president in 2012.
Favorable Ratings of Leading Contenders
While Palin trails Romney in the current candidate preference test, she leads both him and Huckabee in terms of their respective favorable ratings among Republicans. Currently, 72% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable opinion of Palin, compared with 56% for Romney and 59% for Huckabee. But her lead on this measure largely reflects the fact that she is better known than the two former governors, given the substantially lower "no opinion" figures for her. Republicans rate each candidate more positively than negatively by better than 3-to-1 ratios.
However, Huckabee's numbers among all Americans look better by comparison. Although each GOP contender receives a similar favorable rating from the American public -- 43% for Palin, 37% for Romney, and 42% for Huckabee -- Huckabee's negatives are lower. As a result, his +19 net favorable score is much better than Romney's +8 and Palin's -2.
Palin's favorable rating is little changed from last November, immediately after the 2008 election. At that time, 48% viewed her favorably and 47% unfavorably. This suggests no widespread deterioration in her image after her surprising decision to resign her post as governor with more than a year left in her term.
Still, her image has suffered somewhat among Republicans during this time. In November, 81% of Republicans viewed her favorably and 14% unfavorably, compared with the current ratings of 72% favorable and 21% unfavorable after her announced resignation.
Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder?
Though it is little over a year since the 2008 GOP primaries, Americans' opinions of Romney and Huckabee have changed significantly. Notably, each seems to have lost a significant share of the public familiarity he built up during the campaign. There has been a double-digit increase in the percentage of Americans who do not express either a positive or a negative opinion of both Romney and Huckabee.
However, the loss in familiarity may not be a bad thing, as the increase in "no opinion" has accompanied a corresponding drop in unfavorable ratings for each, with little change in their favorable ratings. Whereas Romney was viewed significantly more negatively than positively in February 2008, about the time he suspended his campaign, now on balance Americans view him more positively due to a 17-point drop in his unfavorable ratings.
Huckabee's unfavorable scores have fallen from 38% to 23%; thus, he has moved from an almost equally balanced positive and negative image to one that is considerably more positive than negative.
The declining negatives for both Romney and Huckabee are evident among Democrats as well as Republicans.
Implications
Presidential nomination preference polls conducted roughly three years before the party's nominating convention in general would not be expected to predict the eventual nominee. At this stage, these polls to a large degree reflect respondents' familiarity with the possible contenders. For example, Rudy Giuliani led most GOP preference polls in 2007, but performed dismally in the actual primaries and caucuses.
However, these early polls do give an indication of who the likely front-runners will be heading into the campaign, which should kick off after the 2010 November midterm elections. They also provide insights into the implications of Palin's highly-publicized decision to leave her job as governor of Alaska in the middle of her term. And, the Giuliani example notwithstanding, early front-runner status in Republican nomination contests is important, because historically, that person usually has won the nomination.
To the extent Palin, Romney, and Huckabee can capitalize on their higher name recognition than that of their possible challengers to raise money and build strong campaign organizations, they will be formidable contenders should they decide to pursue the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 10-12, 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 455 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Last edited by China Apologist; 07-19-2009 at 06:14 PM.
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
I'd call that a very good sign for the Republican party. Romney is a good old fashioned center right Republican. If the RR bigots could just get over his being a Mormon Republicans would have a good leader in Mitt. Hell if Obama turns into another Jimmy Carter I'd consider voting for Mitt assuming that he or the Republican leadership can muzzle the wingnuts.
I kinda like Romney, Huckabee is also alright. But I'd never vote for either of them over Obama unless Obama introduced a platform to the right of them. Mississippi has an open primary, so I'm just going to vote for the major Republican candidate I think can most easily be beat.Originally Posted by Mottleydude
BTW, I would have definitely voted for Carter in 1980.
Last edited by China Apologist; 07-18-2009 at 11:10 PM.
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
Nicotine Deprived...
JPP Staff
Romney tore a hole in all other contenders in the caucuses here in Colorado. At this moment I'd prefer him to nearly any other candidate. But that can change in the eternity of three years.
Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but rather we have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
- -- Aristotle
Believe nothing on the faith of traditions, even though they have been held in honor for many generations and in diverse places. Do not believe a thing because many people speak of it. Do not believe on the faith of the sages of the past. Do not believe what you yourself have imagined, persuading yourself that a God inspires you. Believe nothing on the sole authority of your masters and priests. After examination, believe what you yourself have tested and found to be reasonable, and conform your conduct thereto.
- -- The Buddha
Loyal to the end
Romney just looks like a President. He should de-shine the hair a bit though.
Sarah Failin is the loser you neocon Bushlovers can come up with for President Obama to beat?
Will you even have a party by 2012?
I've been looking for you . . .
JPP Contributor
MASSACHUSETTS REPRESENT HOLLLLLLLLA
What you just read is a serious comment
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Twitter: @JPPGrind (do this if you want near instant results)
no democrat nor republican represents the interests of a free America. they are opposite sides of the same fascist coin. only a totalitarian would vote for a major party.
You need only reflect that one of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the struggle for independence. —CHARLES A. BEARD
The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them. - Patrick Henry
Goldwater Republican
Romney severely disappointed me in 2008 in terms of his character. He was fearful to defend his more liberal social positions, and he tried to run on the Bush legacy by sabrerattling about waging war on Islamofascism and "doubling Guantanamo".
He also kinda felt like a fake, which is too bad because his work On paper as Governor appears innovative in some respects that Washington could have used.
Now that the Bush era is over, everyone gets a second look, of course, but the trust for me will be very limited.
I'm actually more interested in Huckabee's growth as a candidate. Of course I strongly disagree with his social policies, but from a foreign policy perspective, I believe he will be more to my liking in a post-Iraq environment.
We have a while to go, but I really think it will take someone very different to defeat Obama in 2012. I certainly hope the country is better off by then, in which case, he will be even harder to beat.
so did obama....you don't think he had an advantage over hillary for being tall, good looking...etc...
hillary had the creds over obama, but when put side to side, people when with the presidential looking candidate....and of course, not another bush/clinton/bush/clinton....but you can't deny that obama didn't use his looks and heighth looking down on hillary
LOL, its awesome when rightwingers share their expertise in the voting choices of the Democratic Party.
Wow, if looks was such a dominant factor in the dem primary, why didn’t John Edwards wipe the floor with both Hillary and Obama?
Oh damn, another rightwing theory shot to hell.
Obama beat Hillary because of Iraq. If Clinton hadn’t voted for the Iraq war, she would be president. Obama was smart enough to know that this was the year for a candidate who never perceived as an enabler Bush, to his war, who could not credibly be tied to Bush’s foolish mistakes, and someone who was not associated with the 8 years of the Bush regime.
are you stupid? love how you classify me as a right winger....you're displaying hack qualities....nice job
you're not being racist by saying edwards is better looking than obama are you....oh....no, because you are a dem.....moron, do you not remember his affair
and hillary was actually stronger than obama on iraq, obama showed himself to be a wimp....but people wanted a leader, a good looking, clean leader and someone different than bush/clinton/bush/clinton
for you to ignore that is bizarre
Huckabee is much more compassionate and less of an asshole than your average Republican. He has a more even head on his shoulders. He's not part of the ultra-nasty streak that has come to dominate conservatism and is best represented by Palin. Of course, his religious views are over the top, but then again so is Romney's.
Of course, Huckabee is the sort of mediocore candidate that no one strongly dislikes or likes, so I don't think he's going to pull through.
"Women hold up half the sky." - Mao Zedong
I've been looking for you . . .
JPP Contributor
all i have to say about romney to the liberals is that he was elected in MASSACHSETTS. that should tell you enough of how he's able to work with everyone.
What you just read is a serious comment
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Need to contact me quickly?
Twitter: @JPPGrind (do this if you want near instant results)
seriously.....as if there is no streak among the dems
dems have been attacking for 8 years, yet now, only now, it bothers you that the other side of the aisle dare speak.....dude
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