Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread

PoliTalker said:
Our prez has talked about this being the worst week of the pandemic for the USA.

We know better than to just believe everything he says, so let's try to find some real answers.

Here is a site with up to date statistics:

Worldometer

We can scroll down and see the US statistics for ACTIVE CASES and NEW DEATHS.

These are the figures which will tell us when we have reached 2 important peaks in the pandemic.

When people test positive, that data is added to the ACTIVE CASES.

When people either die or recover, they are removed from the ACTIVE CASES.

NEW DEATHS is the deaths per day for that day.

We will first see a peak in the ACTIVE CASES, followed by the peak in the NEW DEATHS.

That means we can watch these numbers change and know when we have reached those peaks.

Currently, the figures are:

ACTIVE CASES 420,611.

NEW DEATHS 1,656.

Let's try to post the daily numbers so we can watch the trends and we will know when the peaks have been reached for the entire USA.
Click to expand...

It will be 20,000 deaths by Sunday morning. That’s all in a space of about a month or less.
 
OK, here we go with today's numbers.

4-11-20

USA

Total Cases 529,154

New Cases +26,278

Total Deaths 20,460

New Deaths +1,713

Total Recovered 29,442

Active Cases 479,252

Serious, Critical 11,059

Tot Cases/1M pop 1,599

Deaths/1M pop 62

Total Tests 2,655,662

Tests/1M pop 8,023
 
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New Deaths +1,713 is down a little from yesterday. This is good news.

Active Cases 479,252 is up a bit from yesterday. We are still looking for this to peak.

A drop in New Cases for today is also a very good sign.
 
PoliTalker said:
New Deaths +1,713 is down a little from yesterday. This is good news.

Active Cases 479,252 is up a bit from yesterday. We are still looking for this to peak.

A drop in New Cases for today is also a very good sign.
Click to expand...
Less death is always good news.
 
Hey look!

2620 people recovered in the last 24 hrs.

That's more than died.

Right on.

Recoveries are just about up to 30K.

29442.
 
I have noticed some discrepancies in the numbers, particularly in the 'New Deaths' column.

This probably arises from the way the numbers are reported. There has to come some point during the day when they freeze the numbers for the day and begin calling all new entries part of the following day. Perhaps at midnight, worldometer website time.

If we don't take the numbers at that time, there can be a difference between the posted 'New Deaths' for a day, and the actual increase during that 24 hour period.

I have been trying to sum up the daily numbers each day between 5 and 6PM Eastern time. That has led to the indicated discrepancy.

The discrepancy arises when you take the Total Deaths for each day and subtract them. This should give the new deaths for that day. We are seeing some differences between that calculation and what is posted as 'New Deaths' on the worldometer site.

The Total Deaths for the three days watched in thus thread so far are

4-9 .......... 16444
4-10 ........ 18498
4-11 ........ 20460

Here's the math:

18498 - 16444 = 2054 new deaths on 4-10 (worldometer posted 1807 at that time)

20460 - 18498 = 1962 new deaths on 4-11 (worldometer posted 1713 at that time)

We are hoping this decrease indicates a peak has been reached. Since 4-11 was a Saturday, we will have to continue to watch the numbers daily through the weekend and into the following week to be sure that it is not simply an anomaly caused by reduced reporting on the weekend.
 
PoliTalker said:
Our prez has talked about this being the worst week of the pandemic for the USA.

We know better than to just believe everything he says, so let's try to find some real answers.

Here is a site with up to date statistics:

Worldometer

We can scroll down and see the US statistics for ACTIVE CASES and NEW DEATHS.

These are the figures which will tell us when we have reached 2 important peaks in the pandemic.

When people test positive, that data is added to the ACTIVE CASES.

When people either die or recover, they are removed from the ACTIVE CASES.

NEW DEATHS is the deaths per day for that day.

We will first see a peak in the ACTIVE CASES, followed by the peak in the NEW DEATHS.

That means we can watch these numbers change and know when we have reached those peaks.

Currently, the figures are:

ACTIVE CASES 420,611.

NEW DEATHS 1,656.

Let's try to post the daily numbers so we can watch the trends and we will know when the peaks have been reached for the entire USA.
Click to expand...

The peak is behind us
 
The virus that originated in China has caused death and economic harm around the world.

The leaders of China lied about its origin (China) and failed to control it and lied about the number of deaths caused by the virus from China and then refused help from American health professionals.

China owns the virus that originated in China and China has blood on China's hands.
 
I missed yesterday in the USA peak watch, so I will wait until after 5PM and do it for today. Then we can divide for a daily comparison.

I did notice that we currently have 1.8 million cases worldwide. I had to go back to April 1st to see half of that, so that means it took 12 days for the total worldwide cases to double.

When this first got loose, they said it doubled every 6 days.

You know what that means.

We're fighting back!

All of this social distancing going on all over the world is working.

Hang in there, folks. We'll get our world back. Keep on doing what you're doing. Do what you have to do. It's working.
 
You can see the actual curve of active cases in the USA and decide for yourself if you think we've reached the peak.

Go to worldometer for the USA scroll down. There is a graph of Active Cases.

That one is a linear graph, but the curve will reach a peak at some point in time, and then begin to drop off after then.

That's the first thing we're looking for. The peak in Active Cases.

When people recover or die they are removed from the Active Cases, so eventually that number will drop.

Looking at the graph, you can easily see that we are not there yet. That number is still going up.
 
PoliTalker said:
You can see the actual curve of active cases in the USA and decide for yourself if you think we've reached the peak.

Go to worldometer for the USA scroll down. There is a graph of Active Cases.

That one is a linear graph, but the curve will reach a peak at some point in time, and then begin to drop off after then.

That's the first thing we're looking for. The peak in Active Cases.

When people recover or die they are removed from the Active Cases, so eventually that number will drop.

Looking at the graph, you can easily see that we are not there yet. That number is still going up.
Click to expand...

A classic exponential growth function.

The weird thing is - Trump said eight weeks ago that we had this thing contained and would soon be down to zero cases
 
I noticed the data from the previous day is available, so here are the numbers for Sunday

4-12-20


USA

Total Cases 560,300

New Cases +27,421

Total Deaths 22,105

New Deaths +1,528

Total Recovered 32,634

Active Cases 505,561

Serious,Critical 11,766

Tot Cases/1M pop 1,693

Deaths/1M pop 67

Total Tests 2,832,258

Tests/1M pop 8,557
 
Monday

4-13-20

Final tally for the day:

USA

Total Cases 586,941

New Cases +26,641

Total Deaths 23,640

New Deaths +1,535

Total Recovered 36,948

Active Cases 526,353

Serious, Critical 12,772

Tot Cases/1M pop 1,773

Deaths/1M pop 71

Total Tests 2,943,955

Tests/1M pop 8,894
 
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Sure is good to see the New Deaths continue to drop; but it is troubling that Active Cases continue to rise.

Also of strong concern is the nearly 13K serious or critical condition cases. And that figure continues to rise. The longer a patient is on a ventilator the lower their chances of a recovery.
 
Tuesday

4-14-20


USA

Total Cases 613,886

New Cases +26,945

Total Deaths 26,047

New Deaths +2,407

Total Recovered 38,820

Active Cases 549,019

Serious, Critical 13,473

Tot Cases/1M pop 1,855

Deaths/1M pop 79

Total Tests 3,065,019

Tests/1M pop 9,260
 
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