A lower death rate means more will probably die

W

Walt

Back To Reality
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
 
Interesting.

Regardless, we should know where we are by Cinco de Mayo.

And, no, I do not believe Trump is up to this challenge. That's why he punted to Pence.
 
Walt said:
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
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Neat trick there, putting a panic-spin on the low mortality rate lol.

Think the China Virus will succeed where the Russian Hoax failed?
 
Darth Omar said:
Neat trick there, putting a panic-spin on the low mortality rate lol.

Think the China Virus will succeed where the Russian Hoax failed?
Click to expand...

What Russian hoax?

As posted above, I think smart people will give this 6 weeks or so to see what happens.
 
Walt said:
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
Click to expand...

NOW THE TREASON-O-CRATS ARE HOPING FOR MORE AMERICAN DEATHS.

= ANOTHER REASON WHY AMERICANS HATE YOU AND YOURS....
 
Walt said:
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
Click to expand...

Absolutely not
 
Walt said:
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
Click to expand...

No, the TV game show host is totally out of his league.

Just a word about your statistics: Epidemiologists say that based on the R0 factor of this particular virus, it is likely that 50-60% of the world's population will be infected. Most will just notice mild symptoms and will recover. But with a death rate of 1%, we are facing ~1.6 million deaths in the U.S. alone. The fear among health care professionals now is that we are not equipped to handle massive numbers of patients, nor do we have enough ventilators and other ICU equipment for that many patients.


You are correct -- the higher the death rate the slower the spread, as we saw with Ebola. An organism that swiftly kills its victims destroys its hosts and is unable to spread quickly and far. That's why you see pockets of infection with Ebola rather than widespread outbreaks.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Interesting.

Regardless, we should know where we are by Cinco de Mayo.

And, no, I do not believe Trump is up to this challenge. That's why he punted to Pence.
Click to expand...

Pence makes a great scapegoat too, and TRE45ON is well aware of the political necessity for keeping a scapegoat on hand at all times.
 
Walt said:
This is counter intuitive, but a lower death rate means more will probably die. If the death rate is 5%, the CDC has a very good chance of tracing the spread of the virus. It also means that it is not spreading too fast, and we know about many of the patients. It is something we can win against.

If the death rate is 1%, that means there are over ten thousand patients out there that have few symptoms and are spreading the disease. And it means the disease is spreading much more quickly than we realized. At 1%, there is no chance the CDC will ever get out ahead of this, and it means almost everyone in America will get it.

So 1% of 330 million is 3.3 million. It would basically double the death rate of the year, and be 3 times worse than all the wars the US has fought.

And then there are the mutations. If it has spread that quickly, there will be enough people with the disease for it to evolve quickly. It is very possible that we would have a Coronavirus pandemic every year, just like we do with the flu.

So my question to everyone is does ANYONE think trump is up to this challenge?
Click to expand...

While that is pretty dire but:

Not even every state has cases~you are assuming everyone in the country gets it...As of Sunday night, Louisiana is one of 16 states without a confirmed coronavirus case

Additionally that assumes nothing will occur-cure/fix etc etc etc to stop &/or impede the spread...
 
Bill said:
While that is pretty dire but:

Not even every state has cases~you are assuming everyone in the country gets it...As of Sunday night, Louisiana is one of 16 states without a confirmed coronavirus case

Additionally that assumes nothing will occur-cure/fix etc etc etc to stop &/or impede the spread...
Click to expand...

They got it now. My sister-in-law who lives in Houma texted this afternoon to say that they closed all public K-12 schools there. Their kid goes to a private Xtian school so she's not sure about that being closed or not yet. My grandson goes to Southern in Baton Rouge; they are going to an on-line format. My g-daughter is out for now; she goes to a public school.
 
ThatOwlWoman said:
They got it now. My sister-in-law who lives in Houma texted this afternoon to say that they closed all public K-12 schools there. Their kid goes to a private Xtian school so she's not sure about that being closed or not yet. My grandson goes to Southern in Baton Rouge; they are going to an on-line format. My g-daughter is out for now; she goes to a public school.
Click to expand...

Thnx, yes, but there are still some states that haven't, "yet".......
 
Bill said:
Thnx, yes, but there are still some states that haven't, "yet".......
Click to expand...

Just a handful now...

SjmFMyw.jpg


Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
 
Darth Omar said:
Neat trick there, putting a panic-spin on the low mortality rate lol. Think the China Virus will succeed where the Russian Hoax failed?
Click to expand...

They sure seem desperate, don't they, lol?

Weakness is strength. Down is up. Life is death. Orange man bad! :laugh:
 
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