What will be the battleground states of 2012?

[Jarod]

Ive been studying the electoral map and some numbers, I know this is a strange hobby, but every four years I am really into it.

I cant see how this does not come down to Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Anyone with other thoughts?

[Jarod]

No thoughts?

[Thithicus]

Ive been studying the electoral map and some numbers, I know this is a strange hobby, but every four years I am really into it.

I cant see how this does not come down to Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Anyone with other thoughts?

Virginia will be solid red. Obama coming out for gay marriage is both a blessing and and curse. I agree with him on the issue, but I'm also happy it will make it more difficult for him to win. :)

Florida will also be solid red.

I'd say Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and possibly Michigan will be the real battleground States. However, I am beginning to feel that this will be a blowout for Romney. I wouldn't be surprised if his victory is bigger than Obama's in 2008.

[leaningright]

I figure Oklahoma will be a real battle ground .... they'll be vying for all 2 of our electoral votes which will be ever so important. :)

[PostmodernProphet]

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio....Obama doesn't have a prayer in Florida or Virginia.....

[Jarod]

Virginia will be solid red. Obama coming out for gay marriage is both a blessing and and curse. I agree with him on the issue, but I'm also happy it will make it more difficult for him to win. :)

Florida will also be solid red.

I'd say Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, and possibly Michigan will be the real battleground States. However, I am beginning to feel that this will be a blowout for Romney. I wouldn't be surprised if his victory is bigger than Obama's in 2008. Currently Virginia is polling slightly for the President , Florida slightly for Romney

[Jarod]

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio....Obama doesn't have a prayer in Florida or Virginia.....

It could change but Michigan is solidly in the Presidents corner right now.

[PostmodernProphet]

Currently Virginia is polling slightly for the President , Florida slightly for Romney

and by the time campaigning actually starts Obama will fall far behind....Michigan as well....a substantial portion of Obama's base has moved away....

RCP places Obama "solidly" in the lead in Michigan based upon a February poll that gave him an 18% lead....among "likely" voters since then his lead is under 6% on average....

there hasn't even been a poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania since February.....and then Obama had a 1% lead.....

[Jarod]

and by the time campaigning actually starts Obama will fall far behind....Michigan as well....a substantial portion of Obama's base has moved away....

Maybe, but the polls are current, when did this base move away?

[Superfreak]

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio....Obama doesn't have a prayer in Florida or Virginia.....

Romney doesn't have a shot at PA unless the economy tanks between now and the election.

The swing states will be FL, VA, OH, WI, CO, IA

MO, NC, AZ will go Romney
NH to Obama

I think that covers all the swing states

Obama is up 5 in MI... if Walker wins in a couple weeks in WI... that could spill over to lower turnout in MI on the Dem side (guess on my part) which would open up MI as a swing.

[PostmodernProphet]

Maybe, but the polls are current, when did this base move away?

hardly any of the swing states have been polled since Romney has been the anticipated nominee....and the difference is registered versus likely voters....take Iowa for example....only two polls.....likely voters 1% in favor of Romney.....registered voters 10% in favor of Obama from the Democrat party polling center.....they may as well paint Iowa red and forget about it.....

[PostmodernProphet]

that could spill over to lower turnout in MI on the Dem side (guess on my part) which would open up MI as a swing.

you are underestimating the impact of 400,000 fewer people in the Detroit area.....

[Jarod]

Michigan Glengariff Group (R) -05/11- Obama 45 Romney 40

[PostmodernProphet]

Michigan Glengariff Group (R) -05/11- Obama 45 Romney 40

yep, they're on the RCP list
Glengariff Group (R) 5/10 - 5/11 600 LV 45 40 Obama +5
EPIC-MRA 3/31 - 4/3 600 LV 47 43 Obama +4
MRG 3/14 - 3/19 600 LV 49 42 Obama +7
NBC News/Marist 2/19 - 2/20 1546 RV 51 33 Obama +18

as I said, notice why RCP still shows Obama with an average 8.5 lead over Romney.....

what happens when the Marist poll drops off and the average becomes 5.3?.....does it drop into the swing category instead of "solid" Obama?.....

[PostmodernProphet]

Look at Maine....in three months it's dropped from a 23 pt lead for Obama to an 8 point lead for Obama....

[PostmodernProphet]

can you identify a state in which Obama is gaining against Romney?.....

[Jarod]

No, Romney has only been the clear nominee for a short time and is still enjoying a bounce from it.... I suspect he is increasing his lead everywhere, however I dont belive that will be long lasting. We will see, but I still belive that Michigan will be the President's to lose. Mitt attempted to destroy the American Auto Industry, the Presdient saved it!

[Superfreak]

No, Romney has only been the clear nominee for a short time and is still enjoying a bounce from it.... I suspect he is increasing his lead everywhere, however I dont belive that will be long lasting. We will see, but I still belive that Michigan will be the President's to lose. Mitt attempted to destroy the American Auto Industry, the Presdient saved it!

what exactly did Mitt do to try and destroy the auto industry Jarod?

[Jarod]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFuGTT74rU0

[Superfreak]

So, he didn't do anything other than say let them stand on their own or fall on their own? So he didn't do anything to try and destroy them like some dumbass just proclaimed?

[Jarod]

So, he didn't do anything other than say let them stand on their own or fall on their own? So he didn't do anything to try and destroy them like some dumbass just proclaimed?

Mitt fought against the bailout, the bailout that WORKED! That was an attempt to "let them stand on their own" which we all know would have led to destruction.

[christiefan915]

Romney doesn't have a shot at PA unless the economy tanks between now and the election.

The swing states will be FL, VA, OH, WI, CO, IA

MO, NC, AZ will go Romney
NH to Obama

I think that covers all the swing states

Obama is up 5 in MI... if Walker wins in a couple weeks in WI... that could spill over to lower turnout in MI on the Dem side (guess on my part) which would open up MI as a swing.


I agree about PA especially since employment is looking up.

[PostmodernProphet]

Mitt fought against the bailout, the bailout that WORKED! That was an attempt to "let them stand on their own" which we all know would have led to destruction.

did he destroy Ford too?.....they didn't get a bailout.....

[Jarod]

did he destroy Ford too?.....they didn't get a bailout.....

I know they did not, but they were in support of the bailout!

[Jarod]

Romney doesn't have a shot at PA unless the economy tanks between now and the election.

The swing states will be FL, VA, OH, WI, CO, IA

MO, NC, AZ will go Romney
NH to Obama

I think that covers all the swing states

Obama is up 5 in MI... if Walker wins in a couple weeks in WI... that could spill over to lower turnout in MI on the Dem side (guess on my part) which would open up MI as a swing.

You might be right about Colorado, but I suspect WI and IA will be fairly solid for the President.